EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Thailand’s youngest-ever Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is confronted by a multitude of challenges that she may not be able to surmount. At the same time, her restless father, Thaksin, has brought her more trouble by asserting that he “possesses” but does not “dominate” her.
- Such fatherly sentiment has led to yet another petition being handed to the Election Commission calling for Paetongtarn to be investigated, to ascertain whether she has condoned any unlawful interference from Thaksin.
- If found guilty, she will be ousted from the premiership, and her Pheu Thai, the chief government party, will be dissolved. And Thaksin himself will face a jail term of up to 10 years.
- In its ruling of 7 August ousting Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin for unethical misbehaviour, the Constitutional Court laid down a new precedent: Violating ethical standards is not only a legal interpretation of actions but also a matter of public perception.
- Paetongtarn has been trying to avoid the same pitfall that had led to Srettha’s downfall, but will probably fail.
*Termsak Chalermpalanupap is Visiting Fellow in the Thailand Studies Programme, ISEAS –Yusof Ishak Institute.
ISEAS Perspective 2024/74, 24 September 2024
INTRODUCTION
Ms Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s meteoric rise to the Thai premiership looks doomed to be short-lived. In the worst-case scenario, she will soon be faulted for failing to uphold ethical standards, and thus ousted from the premiership.[1]
On 16 August, the 38-year-old mother of two infants won (uncontested) in the House of Representatives the premiership with a vote of 319 to 145, with 27 abstentions and 2 absentees.[2] With that, she became Thailand’s youngest-ever head of government, and is only the second female prime minister after her aunt, Yingluck.[3]
If she is deemed to lack the ethical standards expected of all holders of high public offices, Paetongtarn can be disqualified from holding the premiership – just like her predecessor Srettha Thavisin.[4] Several petitions to investigate her have already been lodged, and more are expected to follow.
At the same, her father and mentor-in-chief Thaksin is also in hot water.[5]
The National Human Rights Commission has requested the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) to conduct a formal probe into Thaksin’s six-month mysterious stay in a premium suite of the Police Hospital. This is to determine whether such an extraordinary privilege – for a corruption convict serving one-year jail – was justifiable and lawful.
Thaksin’s more immediate concern now is growing public suspicion that he has been unlawfully interfering with Pheu Thai, and dominating Paetongtarn. About 55% of respondents in a recent poll doubt that Paetongtarn can run her premiership without Thaksin.[6]
In its ruling of 7 August against PM Srettha Thavisin for unethical behaviour, the Constitutional Court laid down a new criterion for leadership: Violating ethical standards is not only a legal interpretation, but also a matter of public perception. The ruling resulted in the immediate ousting of Srettha from the premiership.
IN THE FIRING LINE
The first four complaints against Paetongtarn came from none other than Ruangkrai Leekitwattana, a tenacious public watchdog lawyer who is also a member of Palang Pracharat. On 19 June,[7] he asked the NACC to determine whether Paetongtarn became a government official when she was appointed deputy chairperson of the National Committee on Soft Power Strategy.[8]
In addition, Paetongtarn was, on 6 October, appointed head of the Thailand Creative Culture Agency.[9] The newly-established agency received about a 3,500 million-baht budget for the current fiscal year.[10]
The initial inquiry led to a follow-up petition from Ruangkrai on 25 August. He asked the NACC to investigate whether Paetongtarn – whom Ruerngkai assumes to be a government official – broke the anti-corruption law when she took her family on a weekend vacation at Rancho Charnvee on 20 July.[11] That was when she joined her father in a weekend get-together at a luxurious resort near Khao Yai National Park. The resort belongs to the family of DPM and Interior Minister Anutin Charnveerakul, leader of Bhumjaithai, the second largest government party.
Under Section 128 of the anti-corruption law, government officials – including those who have left government jobs for less than two years – are prohibited from accepting gifts or any other valuable benefits.
Next, on 28 August, Ruangkrai asked the Election Commission to check whether Paetongtarn had resigned from all business executive posts (mostly in firms belonging to the Shinawatra family) and disposed of all of her business shares before she formally accepted the royal appointment to be the new prime minister on 18 August.[12] Such a requirement is stated in Section 187 of the Constitution, which is aimed at preventing conflicts of interest.
The most hard-hitting petition from Ruerngkrai came on 3 September when he asked the Election Commission to investigate Paetongtarn to ascertain whether she has condoned Thaksin’s interference in her premiership and in her leadership of Pheu Thai.[13]
In his fourth petition, Ruerngkrai cited Thaksin’s own admission (a faux pas?) on 20 August that he possesses [ครอบครอง “krob-krong”] Paetongtarn as his daughter, but does not dominate her [ครอบงำ “krob-ngum”] in her running of Pheu Thai and the premiership. Ruerngkrai has attached in his petition an official Thai dictionary translation of these two Thai words: ครอบครอง “krob-krong” means to have in possession, to own with the capacity to control and to supervise; whereas ครอบงำ “krob-ngum” means merely mental domination, to dominate the thinking of someone.[14]
Yet another serious assault on Paetongtarn’s integrity came from Palang Pracharat’s deputy party leader Paiboon Nititawan. In a press conference on 29 August, Paiboon warned Paetongtarn that she was violating Section 362 of the Civil and Commercial Code, for failing to keep her words.[15]
Paiboon, who is a lawyer by profession, claimed that such a failure would also constitute a violation of the Constitution’s Section 160, Paragraph 4, which states that [a Minister must] “be of evident integrity” and Paragraph 5, [a Minister must] “not have behaviour which is a serious violation [of] or failure to comply with ethical standards”.[16]
Paiboon pointed out that 39 of Palang Pracharat’s 40 MPs voted for Paetongtarn to be the new prime minister, with the understanding that she would include their party in her new government coalition. Only party leader General Prawit Wongsuwan missed the voting, on 16 August, because he was busy welcoming Thai Olympians on their return from Paris.[17]
Two days earlier, Pheu Thai’s executive committee decided to exclude Palang Pracharat and turned instead to invite Democrat Party, the second largest opposition party, to join Paetongtarn’s new Pheu Thai-led coalition government.[18] Paetongtarn could claim that she had to abide by the decisions of Pheu Thai’s executive committee.
Rubbing additional salt to Palang Pracharat party leader General Prawit’s injury, Pheu Thai was going to offer three ministerial posts to a dissident faction inside Palang Pracharat, led by party secretary-general Captain Thammanat Prompao. Thammanat has recently fallen out with General Prawit; he has declared “independence”.[19]
However, Thammanat would not take any post in the Paetongtarn Cabinet, apparently for fear of bringing political trouble to Paetongtarn. He would instead let his allies take all the three posts.[20]
Paetongtarn’s move to reward Captain Thammanat’s rebellion could give Palang Pracharat additional ammunition to attack her for attempting to instigate disunity inside Palang Pracharat – which is a crime under the political party law, as well as a violation of the ethical standards of good behaviour. Now it is only a matter of time before Palang Pracharat pulls the trigger to retaliate against Thaksin, Paetongtarn and Pheu Thai.
If found guilty, Thaksin will face a jail term of up to 10 years, and Pheu Thai may be dissolved. Dissolution of the party will entail a ban from national politics for party leader Paetongtarn and all others on Pheu Thai’s executive committee.
In its ruling of 7 August against PM Srettha Thavisin for unethical behaviour, the Constitutional Court laid down a new criterion: Violating ethical standards is not only a legal question alone, but also a matter of public perception by ordinary people who can tell right from wrong.
The Constitutional Court, in a decision of 5-4, faulted Srettha for submitting the name of Thaksin’s lawyer Pichit, to the King when common people could see the lawyer has a questionable past, including serving six months of jail for contempt of court in a failed bribery attempt in 2008, and losing his lawyer’s licence. The Constitutional Court asserted that Pichit’s misbehaviour in 2008 constituted a serious violation of ethical standards.[21] Its ruling led to Srettha’s immediate ouster from the premiership.
RUNNING OUT OF TIME
Paetongtarn had to take some time to double-check all proposed names in order to have a safe list for submission to the King.
The time-consuming vetting process was aimed at avoiding the pitfall of improperly proposing unsuitable persons. Her predecessor, Srettha, lost his premiership on 7 August after the Constitutional Court held him responsible for proposing for appointment as a minister Thaksin’s lawyer, Pichit Chuern-ban, who had a questionable past.
On 1 September, Somchai Swangkarn, a former outspoken senator, dropped a bombshell by declaring on his Facebook that he had heard that at least 11 of the proposed names on the list have had some difficulties involving either legal or ethical issues.[22]
Two days later, incumbent Deputy Interior Minister Chada Thaiseth abruptly withdrew his name; he then submitted the name of his daughter Sabina, to take his place on the list.[23]
The King on 4 September approved a list of cabinet members submitted by Paetongtarn.[24] And indeed Chada’s daughter has now become the new deputy minister of interior.
Paetongtarn was lucky to get a quick opportunity to bring her new cabinet members for an audience with the King on 6 September evening. And she was able to deliver her new government policy statement to the parliament for a debate on 12 and 13 September.
Only after delivering the policy statement did her Cabinet meet formally for the first time on 17 September. One of the top priority decisions to take was to approve the disbursement of 145 billion baht for cash hand-out to 14.5 million poor Thais (who are in vulnerable groups, or poor people with disabilities) before the end of the current fiscal year, on 30 September. If the money is not spent in time, the cash hand-out will have to be cancelled.[25]
One new question has emerged: Since the first 14.5 million poor are going to receive 10,000 baht in cash, how and when will the others who have registered, estimated at over 30 million, receive their 10,000 baht. If there is no money to give, then Paetongtarn and Pheu Thai could be faulted for failing to keep the party’s campaign promise – yet another potential violation of the constitutional rules of “evident integrity” and “ethical standards”.
RESTLESS THAKSIN IN HOT WATER
Paetongtarn’s options are few and limited. The fate of her premiership is not in her own hands. Srettha encountered a similar ordeal, and could not survive.
Likewise, Paetongtarn’s political future also depends chiefly on what her father, Thaksin, will do next. Thaksin himself, however, is running out of room for manoeuvre.
Before his return from 17 years of overseas exile, Thaksin admitted that he did “speak briefly” on the phone with General Prawit about forming a new government.[26]
On the day of his return on 22 August, the House of Representatives voted to endorse Pheu Thai’s premiership candidate Srettha as the new prime minister. MPs of General Prawit’s Palang Pracharat as well as MPs of then incumbent PM General Prayut Chan-o-cha’s United Thai Nation Party all voted for Srettha. More importantly, 152 Senators also voted for Srettha, who won with 482 votes, a 65% majority in the combined parliamentary session of the House (500 MPs) and the Senate (250 Senators[27]).
Installing Pheu Thai’s Srettha in the premiership was probably what Thaksin had agreed upon with General Prawit. But in exchange for what?
Palang Pracharat did join the Srettha’s coalition government. General Prawit’s younger brother, Police General Patcharawat Wongsuwan, did get the post of environment minister. And his party secretary-general, Captain Thammanat, did get his much-coveted post of minister of agriculture.
However, Thaksin seems to have the upper hand in his “deal” with General Prawit. Instead of serving eight years of jail from three corruption convictions, Thaksin was allowed to seek emergency treatment in a premium suite at Police Hospital on the same night of his return. Better still, his jail term was soon commuted by the King to only one year.
Thaksin spent the first 181 days of this one-year jail in the Police Hospital. After that he was released under parole for home detention.[28] He eventually became “a free man” on 17 August, just in time for him to attend the ceremony the following day in which his daughter formally received the royal command to become prime minister.
While in the Police Hospital, Thaksin quickly gained the reputation of being “the Thevada [angel] on the 14th Floor” with powers to do wonderful things while all CCTV cameras mysteriously went off in unison. Although he reportedly suffered from some life-threatening illness, few of his family members visited him or stayed near him. And he used assistants to arrange appointments for visitors calling on him.
The National Human Rights Commission has, therefore, come to the conclusion that Thaksin enjoyed undue privileges, and asked the NACC to investigate the matter. The NACC has responded by requesting the Police Hospital to provide Thaksin’s medical treatment records, CCTV recordings on the 14th floor, if any, and photographs taken during Thaksin’s six-month stay in the hospital. Under the Corrections Department’s standard operating procedure, two guards must be posted to watch Thaksin at the times, and to take photographs of the VIP detainee regularly in order to report to the Corrections Department.[29]
As of 30 August, NACC secretary-general Niwatchai Kasemmongkol reported having received none of what his office had requested from the Police Hospital. He added however that a lot of work had been done in the investigation, and a conclusion could soon be made.[30]
Meanwhile, the Medical Council of Thailand has been conducting its own investigation following a complaint from a former MP of Democrat Party, Watchara Petchthong,[31] who accused senior doctors of the Police Hospital and the Department of Corrections Hospital of falsely certifying Thaksin’s illness conditions.[32] After Thaksin was released under parole and left the hospital on 17 February, he did not seem to have undergone any follow-up treatment. Instead, Thaksin has been up and running around the country. On 22 August, he delivered an hour-long dinner talk on his “Vision for Thailand”.
The most damning testimony about Thaksin’s hospital mystery came from former national police chief Police General Sereepisuth Temeeyaves. On 29 August, he told a press conference[33] his Thai Liberal Party (which has only one MP) would not join Paetongtarn’s new government coalition. More importantly, he disclosed that he had visited Thaksin at his hospital room twice, last November (he went with one assistant!) and last February. He even circulated to media reporters copies of his Line chats with Thaksin’s staff in setting up the two appointments.
In the second meeting (Sereepisuth said he was instructed to go alone), Thaksin asked for Sereepisuth’s favour in withdrawing a petition filed at the NACC against PM Srettha, accusing the PM of violating police good governance rules in recommending the promotion of Police General Torsak Sukvimol to head the national police force last September, bypassing a more senior rival candidate, Police General Surachet Hakpan. Sereepisuth added that former PM Yingluck had joined in to lobby him to withdraw the petition against PM Srettha. He eventually did as requested.[34]
Sereepisuth threatened to elaborate soon what he saw during his two visits: Thaksin’s physical condition, and the absence of any Corrections guard inside or near Thaksin’s hospital room.[35] He reiterated this threat on another TV interview on 2 September, in which he also disclosed that he enjoyed during his second visit sticky rice and sweet mango. During their casual conversation, Thaksin vowed to exclude the two Wongsuwan brothers from the future Pheu Thai-led new government.[36] And indeed the Paetongtarn’s Cabinet does not include either of them.
THAKSIN IS THE WEAKEST LINK
Another immediate concern of Thaksin is a recent petition to the Election Commission to investigate whether he was the one who persuaded Srettha to propose Thaksin’s controversial lawyer Pichit for appointment as a minister in the PM’s Office. In its ruling of 14 August, the Constitutional Court did allude to a meeting between Srettha and one unnamed “person” before Srettha submitted Pichit’s name to the King.
If that “person” turns out to be Thaksin, then he can be faulted for interfering with Pheu Thai’s affairs.
Subsequently, the same petitioner has also asked the Election Commission to hold Pheu Thai’s executive committee accountable for submitting to interference from Thaksin. Although his true identity has been withheld on request for his own safety, the mysterious petitioner is believed to be an ex-Senator, and an experienced lawyer who knows how to make use of the Constitutional Court’s ruling.
Another incident that could lead to Thaksin’s downfall is the hush-hush meeting held on the evening of 14 August at Thaksin’s residence.[37] That was when several government parties’ leaders congregated at short notice and quickly agreed to support Pheu Thai’s nomination of Chaikasem Nitisiri as the new prime minister.
But with whom did they discuss the need for this meeting? Pheu Thai party leader Paetongtarn was flying home from Shanghai, after cutting short her study tour in China. DPM and Commerce Minister Phumtham Wechayachai was away, on an official visit to Kazakhstan. In all likelihood, those government parties’ big wigs were summoned to the meeting by Thaksin.
The following morning, an urgent meeting of Pheu Thai MPs heard strong objections to the nomination of Chaikasem, a 75-year-old former justice minister who had been in poor health. The meeting unanimously called for a switch to Paetongtarn – because her family name could help win more votes in the next general election in 2027. The party’s executive committee relented. All other government parties also quickly lined up to support Paetongtarn.
Being an ex-convict, Thaksin had lost the right to hold public offices or to join any political party – let alone having anything to do with the nomination of his daughter as a new prime minister, or organising her Cabinet.
If found guilty of interference with Pheu Thai, the offence can land him in jail for up to 10 years, lead to the dissolution of Pheu Thai, as well as disqualification of all of the party’s executive committee members – including Paetongtarn, the party leader and the new PM – from holding public offices.
CONCLUSION
The challenges confronting PM Paetongtarn are numerous, and some of them may be insurmountable.
Paetongtarn, who is not an MP and did not hold any cabinet post in the previous Srettha Administration, is without much political experience. Should her father falter, Paetongtarn and Pheu Thai will fall too.
As things look, Thailand’s political instability can and most probably will worsen.
ENDNOTES
For endnotes, please refer to the original pdf document.
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