Articles & Commentaries

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) entered Malaysia’s political scene in 2016 as an underdog. As a splinter party formed by dissidents from Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and championing a more progressive approach to Islam, Amanah won 11 parliamentary seats in GE14 in 2018, mostly located on the peninsula’s west coast. It was part of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) administration during the 22 months that it held power.

• For GE15, Amanah is considered safe in five of the 11 seats it now holds. These seats—Pulai (Johor), and Hulu Langat, Shah Alam, Kota Raja, and Sepang (all in Selangor)—are multi-ethnic constituencies with considerable numbers of non-Malay voters, which were won in GE14 with a large majority, or which had already been in the candidates’ hands since their days in PAS. Support from its PH partners such as Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and the Democratic Action Party (DAP), played an important role in Amanah’s success.

• With multi-cornered fights expected in several constituencies in GE15, Amanah has its work cut out for it. The six seats that are relatively unsafe are Pokok Sena (Kedah), Parit Buntar and Lumut (Perak), Temerloh (Pahang), Kuala Selangor (Selangor), and Tampin (Negeri Sembilan).

• Beyond these cases, Amanah has a chance in winning several other seats, such as Kuala Terengganu (Terengganu), Kota Bharu (Kelantan), Alor Gajah (Melaka), Tasik Gelugor (Penang), and Titiwangsa (Federal Territory).

• The effect of Malaysia’s lowered voting age on all parties remains unknown, and given the crowded field populated by coalitions like PH-Amanah, UMNO, Bersatu-PAS and Pejuang-GTA, one should expect some surprises in the outcome.

* Mohd Faizal Musa is Visiting Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, and Research Fellow at the Institute of the Malay World and Civilization (ATMA), National University of Malaysia (UKM).

ISEAS Perspective 2022/107, 4 November 2022

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INTRODUCTION

On 16 September2015, Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) was officially formed.[1] The party’s members consisted of those who were previously with Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), but who were defeated during party elections for their differing approach to Islamist politics. While PAS remains conservative and exclusivist, Amanah can be characterised as a progressive Islamist party with reformist aspirations. Six Members of Parliament (MP) and seven state legislative assemblymen from six states left PAS to join Amanah.[2] Later that year, Amanah, the Democratic Action Party (DAP), and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) joined forces to form Pakatan Harapan (PH). Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s party, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), joined the alliance in 2017, while Sabah’s Parti Warisan (Warisan) allied itself with PH in 2018. The bloc, referred to as PH-Plus, made history when it won Malaysia’s 14^th General Election (GE14) in 2018, securing 121 of parliamentary 222 seats.[3] Amanah contributed 11 of those seats.

However, since then, the Malaysian political scene has become more crowded. With the departure of Bersatu and several PKR MPs from the alliance, the PH administration fell in March 2020, making way for the formation of Perikatan Nasional (PN), a third bloc in Malaysian politics. PAS is now part of this coalition. That same year, Mahathir Mohamad left Bersatu to form his own party, Pejuang.[4] There is also Ikatan Demokratik Malaysia (MUDA) headed by Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman, who was formerly with Bersatu and who served as a minister in the PH administration. PH has agreed to an electoral pact with MUDA to contest in GE15.[5]

In his 2017 monograph Parti Amanah Negara in Johor: Birth, Challenges and Prospects, Wan Saiful Wan Jan surmised that Amanah had the potential to win in multi-racial constituencies where Chinese voters constitute 30 to 45 per cent of the population.[6] Although he situated his argument within the context of Johor, it appeared that his hypothesis held water in the rest of the country. This was confirmed in GE14, where “95 percent of the ethnic Chinese population and 70-75 percent of the ethnic Indians voted for PH.”[7] To be sure, Amanah also received significant support from urban Malay voters.[8]

This now leads to questions about the fate of Amanah in the upcoming GE15, which may witness multi-cornered fights unless all opposition parties come to a common understanding. Short of such an agreement, there is doubt that Amanah will be able to defend its 11 seats.

In GE15, Amanah will be contesting in as many as 54 seats. Based on recent experience and the high probability of multi-cornered fights, the party faces an uphill battle, as demonstrated in the Johor state election where Amanah dropped from holding nine state assembly seats to only one.

Nevertheless, the results of GE15 remain unpredictable. This Perspective considers the re-election prospects of Amanah’s incumbents, and studies the few constituencies that hold out a relatively positive outlook for the party.

STABLE SEATS

Of the 11 seats won in GE14, Amanah is arguably rooted in only five of them. There are three reasons for saying this. Firstly, these are the number of seats which they won with a big majority. Secondly, the Amanah candidates in these seats, all of whom attained prominence while they were members of PAS, retained popular support despite their new affiliation. Finally, the state constituencies within these seats made strong contributions to their victory and have been occupied either by Amanah, PKR, or DAP. The five strong seats are (P codes for parliament seats, N for state assembly seats):

1. Pulai P161

The incumbent MP is Salahuddin Ayub, the former Minister of Agriculture and Agro-based Industry during PH’s administration. He is currently Deputy President of Amanah and a holding member of the state constituency of N13 Simpang Jeram in Johor.

Salahuddin won this seat in GE14 with a majority of 28,924 votes. He won 55,447 votes against the United Malays National Organization’s (UMNO) Nur Jazlan Mohamed who received 26,523 votes, and PAS’ Mohd Mazri Yahya, who came third with 4,332 votes.[9]

2. Hulu Langat P101

The MP is Hasanuddin Mohd Yunus, who is one of the party’s vice presidents. Hasanuddin won this seat in GE14 with a majority of 25,424 votes. He won 49,004 votes against UMNO’s Azman Ahmad who received 23,580 votes and PAS’ Che Rosli Che Mat who had 15,663 votes.

One of the state constituencies within the Hulu Langat federal constituency is N23 Dusun Tua, which DAP’s Edry Faizal Eddy Yusof won with a huge majority in GE14. He received 22,325 votes against UMNO’s Mohd Zin Isa’s 11,903 votes, and PAS’ Razaly Hassan’s 7,771 votes.[10] DAP’s hold on Dusun Tua may therefore contribute to Amanah’s strength in Hulu Langat.

A new development is that, in the upcoming GE15, Amanah is sending Mohd Sany Hamzan, a member of the Selangor State Legislative Assembly, to defend the seat.

3. Shah Alam P108

Khalid Abd Samad, a well-known leader of Amanah, has held this seat since GE12. Khalid was Minister of Federal Territories during PH’s administration. In GE14, he attained a majority of 33,849 and received a total of 55,949 votes against UMNO’s Azhari Shaari who had 22,100 votes and PAS’ stalwart, Mohd Zuhdi Marzuki, who had 15,194 votes

In GE13 he defeated UMNO’s Zulkifli Noordin, winning 49,009 votes against Zulkifli’s 38,070 votes, for a majority of 10,939.[11] Two of the state constituencies in Selangor, N40 Kota Anggerik and N41 Batu Tiga, are both PKR strongholds which have strong support for Khalid or for anyone replacing him.[12]

In the upcoming election, Azli Yusof, Khalid’s right-hand man will be contesting here.

4. Kota Raja P111

The incumbent in Kota Raja is none other than Mohamad Sabu, the President of Amanah and Minister of Defence during PH’s administration. Mohamad first contested in this seat in GE14, during which he won 90,697 votes, with a majority of 71,142 votes. He defeated PAS’ Mohamed Diah Baharun who had 19,555 votes, and Barisan Nasional’s (BN) candidate, Gunalan Velu (from the Malaysian Indian Congress, MIC), who had 17,874 votes.

In the two elections prior to GE14, Kota Raja was represented by a member of PAS’ reformist bloc, Dr Siti Mariah Mahmud, who later became a leader of Amanah’s women’s wing. In 2018 she contested under Amanah in the state constituency of Seri Serdang.[13] Thus, given the longstanding popularity of Amanah members in Kota Raja, the seat is considered a safe seat for any Amanah candidate who runs there.  

5. Sepang P113

The incumbent in this seat is Mohamed Hanipa Maidin who won for the second time in GE14. Mohamed Hanipa was Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department in charge of legal affairs during PH’s administration. In 2018, he won 46,740 votes with a 18,705 majority against UMNO’s Marsum Paing who won 28,035 votes and PAS’ Sabirin Marsono who won 15,882 votes.

However, Hanipa is not in good health and will be giving way to a younger candidate.[14] Amanah Women’s Wing chief, Aiman Athirah Al-Jundi has been confirmed to replace her.

There are three state constituencies within the federal constituency of Sepang in which PH component parties have a satisfactory majority. These are N54 Tanjong Sepat, N55 Dengkil, and N56 Sungai Pelek.[15]

A number of Amanah leaders expressed during fieldwork interviews that all five of the above-mentioned seats are safe seats for the party.[16] Given the confidence that they have in these seats, Amanah hopes to hold on to the 11 seats that they have, out of the 54 that they will be contesting in. It is worth noting that Amanah is viewed by some as the party that will fill in the gap left by Bersatu, as well as the party that can counter PAS’ narrative on Islam.[17] 

It is crucial to note that these are multi-ethnic constituencies. For example, Pulai comprises of 39.4 per cent Chinese voters and 10.5 per cent Indian voters.[18] Kota Raja has 27.8 per cent Chinese voters and 28.1 per cent Indian voters.[19] Similarly, Sepang has 20.2 per cent Chinese voters and 14.2 per cent Indian voters.[20]

IN HOT WATER

In contrast to the five safe seats, Amanah’s remaining six seats are more volatile and vulnerable in a multi-cornered fight. This is due to several factors. Firstly, these constituencies comprise of a smaller number of non-Malay voters. Secondly, PAS or UMNO has had a persistent strong presence in these constituencies. Thirdly, UMNO or PN may be fielding strategically strong candidates for these seats.

These seats are:

1. Pokok Sena P008

The incumbent MP is Mahfuz Omar, who is one of Amanah’s vice presidents and who served as Deputy Minister of Human Resources during PH’s administration. Of the five times that he had competed in this seat, he won three times.

Pokok Sena constituency was established in 1995, in the year of GE09. That year saw Mahfuz losing to BN, with the former receiving 20,667 votes and UMNO candidate Wan Hanafiah Wan Mat Saman winning 25,285 votes.

In GE10 in 1999, Mahfuz won the seat, getting 27,466 against Wan Hanafiah’s 23,829 votes. BN successfully wrested back Pokok Sena in GE11, with Mahfuz attracting only 22,440 votes against UMNO’s Abdul Rahman Ibrahim’s 29,740 votes.

Mahfuz reclaimed the seat in GE12 in 2008, by winning 29,6g87 votes against Abdul Rahman’s 23,956 votes. He retained the seat in GE13 with 36,198 votes against UMNO’s Shahlan Ismail’s 32,263 votes. His winning streak continued in GE14, when he extended the winning margin to 5,558 with 28,959 votes against PAS (23,401 votes) and UMNO (18,390 votes).

From these numbers, it is evident that Mahfuz has been ahead in these fights by approximately three to five thousand votes, whether they are one-on-one or multi-cornered fights. In the case of Pokok Sena, this difference in the number of votes may be attributed to the fact that two of its state constituencies, N009 Bukit Lada and N10 Bukit Pinang are led by PAS but only with a small margin.[21] Furthermore, his ability to retain Pokok Sena in 2018 could have been due to the fact that DAP won N11 Derga in 2013 and 2018. Whatever the case, this seat is considered volatile, and there is no certainty that Mahfuz will retain it if he runs in GE15.

2. Parit Buntar P057

The incumbent MP of this seat is Mujahid Yusof Rawa, another of Amanah’s vice presidents. He served as Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department in charge of Religious Affairs during PH’s administration. Prior to him, the seat was occupied by PAS’ Hasan Mohamed Ali after GE10, and was reclaimed by UMNO in GE11.[22] Mujahid took the seat in GE12 in 2008 with a majority of 7,551, winning 21,221 votes against UMNO’s Abdul Rahman Suliman’s 13,670 votes.

In GE13, his majority rose to 8,476 when he gained 26,015 votes against UMNO’s Mua’amar Ghadafi Jamal Jamaludin, who received 17,539 votes. In GE14 in 2018, Mujahid won with a majority of 3,098, gaining 16,753 votes against UMNO’s Abdul Puhat Mat Nayan’s 13,655 votes and PAS’ Ahmad Azhar Haji Sharin’s 12,312 votes. One possible reason Mujahid managed to retain this seat was because two state constituencies under Parit Buntar were led by PH component parties. These are N09 Kuala Kurau which has been held by PKR since 2008, and N08 Titi Serong which Amanah won in 2018, although only with a majority of 140.[23] However, in 2020, their representative Hasnul Zulkarnain Abd Munaim left Amanah to join Bersatu, and in 2021 declared himself an independent candidate.[24]

Parit Buntar is considered an unsafe seat as Titi Serong voters might be the deciding factor in a multi-cornered fight. Nevertheless, Mujahid may retain Parit Buntar, and the likelihood of this may increase since PH appears determined to gain the parliamentary upper hand in the state of Perak, with Anwar Ibrahim running in Tambun.

3. Lumut P074

The existing MP is Dr Mohd Hatta Ramli, who is currently Amanah’s secretary-general and who served as Deputy Minister of Entrepreneur Development during PH’s administration.

In GE14, Mohd Hatta defeated UMNO’s Zambry Abd Kadir (who was Chief Minister of Perak) with a slim majority of 400 votes. Mohd Hatta received 21,955 votes while Zambry got 21,555 votes. PAS’ Mohd Zamri Ibrahim received 10,135 votes.

Lumut is a highly contested seat. In GE13, PKR’s Mohamad Imran Abd Hamid won this seat with 40,308 votes against BN’s Kong Cho Ha who gained 32,140 votes. In GE12, Kong won with 25,698 votes, defeating PKR’s Suwardi Sapuan who had 25,400 votes. This gave Kong a slim majority of 298 votes.

Nevertheless, there are a number of factors that may give the advantage to Hatta in this seat. Firstly, Hatta is born in Sitiawan, near Lumut. Secondly, Lumut is home to the Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN) military base. Data from GE14 show that there were 11,223 early voters who were RMN personnel.[25] Thus, given the recent controversy concerning the RM9.13 billion Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) contract which involves the RMN, Boustead Naval Shipyard Sdn Bhd (BNS), and the current government, Hatta might stand to retain the seat.[26] Thirdly, one of the state constituencies under Lumut, N51 Pasir Panjang, is occupied by a well-known local, Yahaya bin Mat Nor. He won the seat in 2018 with 14,123 votes against UMNO’s Rashidi Ibrahim who got 12,904 votes and PAS’ Rohawati Abidin who got 7,795 votes.

The challenge for Hatta will be Zambry Abd Kadir, should the latter decide to run again. It should be noted that Zambry has a launching pad as he also occupies N52 Pangkor, which is within the Lumut parliamentary seat. He won that state seat with a majority vote of 1,626, winning 8,378 votes against PAS’ Zainal Abidin Saad’s 3,638 votes and Bersatu’s Nordin Ahmad Ismail’s 6,752 votes. While Bersatu and PAS are now in the same camp and will field only one candidate among them, Hatta might instead have to face an additional candidate from Pejuang.

4. Temerloh P088

In GE14, 70-year-old Mohd Anuar Tahir, one of Amanah’s founding members and former secretary-general, was parachuted to run in Temerloh. The constituency had been considered an UMNO fortress, but in GE13, Nasrudin Hassan from PAS had defeated Saifuddin Abdullah with a small majority of 1,070 votes.

Although an unknown to the constituents, Mohd Anuar managed to get 23,998 votes to win the seat with a majority of 1,904 votes. UMNO’s Mohd Sharkar Shamsudin had received 22,094 votes while PAS’ Md Jusoh Darus got 14,734 votes. Mohd Anuar was Deputy Minister of Works during PH’s administration.[27]

However, there are concerns about Amanah’s ability to defend the seat. At least one state constituency in Temerloh has been comfortably won by UMNO. N31 Lanchang is traditionally an UMNO seat; it is now represented by Mohd Sharkar Shamsudin, who is part of the Pahang State Executive Council. This may give him greater visibility. N32 Kuala Semantan was previously held by PAS but was snatched by UMNO in GE14 with a majority of 474 votes.

Amanah is fielding Mohd Hasbie Muda, its current Youth Chief. Hasbie can retain this seat if voters in the state constituency of N30 Mentakab continue to throw their support behind DAP, as they did in GE14.[28] Mentakab has a large number of Chinese voters and this may help Amanah retain Temerloh if they field a strong candidate there. It is expected that concurrent state elections to be held in Pahang during GE15 will help to boost support for the parliamentary candidates. For example, the thrill of a fight between heavyweights Young Syefura Othman of DAP and Liow Tiong Lai of BN in Bentong P089 may spill over to seats in which Amanah will be contesting, including Temerloh, Bentong’s neighbouring constituency.

5. Kuala Selangor P096

The MP of this seat is Dzulkefly Ahmad, a highly-praised 66-year-old toxicologist who served as the Minister of Health during PH’s administration.

Dzulkefly first captured the seat with a slim majority of 862 votes in GE12 in 2008, when he was a member of PAS. He won 18,796 votes against UMNO’s Jahaya Ibrahim’s 17,934 votes. UMNO recaptured the seat in GE13, when Irmohizam Ibrahim won 27,500 votes, just 460 more than Dzulkefly’s 27,040 votes.

Dzulkefly reversed this result in GE14 and won 29,842 votes against Irmohizam’s 21,344 votes and PAS’ Haji Fakaruddin’s 8,535 votes. This time, he won with a larger majority of 8,498 votes. Three state constituencies under Kuala Selangor were grabbed by PH. PKR won N10 Bukit Melawati and N11 Ijok, while Bersatu won N12 Jeram.[29]

However, despite that success, it will be an uphill battle for an Amanah candidate to win this seat in GE15. Rumour has it that UMNO plans to field PN’s Minister of Finance, Tengku Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz, there.[30] This spells additional trouble for competing candidates, especially since Zafrul is known to be close to the monarch.

6. Tampin P133

The current MP of Tampin is Dr Hasan Bahrom, an Islamic scholar who joined Amanah in 2016. In GE14, Hasan received 22,435 votes against UMNO’s Shaziman Abu Mansor who received 21,433 votes and PAS’ Abdul Halim Abu Bakar who received 4,958 votes. Prior to Amanah’s victory, Shaziman had held this seat since GE10 in 1999. For GE15, Muhammad Faiz Fadzil, member of Penang State Legislative Assembly for Permatang Pasir will be running here.

History illustrates Tampin as a safe seat for UMNO. In GE11, Shaziman won the seat with 23,936 votes against PAS’ Abdul Razakek Abdul Rahim who received only 5,852 votes. This was a large majority of 18,084 votes. In GE13, Shaziman won 29,390 votes against Abdul Razakek’s 18,228 votes. It was again a large majority, this time of 11,162 votes.

There are currently three state constituencies under Tampin. These are N34 Gemas which has traditionally been occupied by UMNO with a large majority; N35 Gemencheh which was won in GE14 by Bersatu’s Saiful Adly Abd Wahab with a slim majority of 351 votes; and N36 Repah which was won by DAP’s Veerapan Superamaniam with a majority of 4,758 votes. DAP’s success in this seat in GE14 could be attributed to the significant number of non-Malay voters there. It is the only safe seat for PH in Tampin.

A win for Amanah is not impossible as there is a large number of non-Malay voters in these seats. For example, Lumut P074 comprises of 14.8 per cent Chinese voters and 11.4 percent Indian voters; Pokok Sena P008 has 15.3 per cent Chinese voters, and 2.4 per cent Indian voters;[31] Parit Buntar P057 has 25.6 per cent Chinese voters and 4.7 per cent Indian voters; while Kuala Selangor P096 has 12.8 per cent Chinese voters and 20.9 per cent Indian voters.[32]

OTHER POTENTIAL SEATS

There are other must-watch seats where strong Amanah candidates have a chance. These have either historically been held by a current Amanah leader when they were in PAS, or may be up for grabs due to several uncertainties. Such seats include Kuala Terengganu P036 and Kota Bharu P021 which were contested in GE14 by Raja Kamarul Bahrin Shah Raja Ahmad and Husam Musa respectively. Raja Kamarul will make another attempt, while in Kota Bharu, Hafidzah Mustakim, a well-known medical doctor is the flag bearer.

Adly Zahari, who was Chief Minister of Melaka from May 2018 to March 2020 may have a chance in the state, and is regarded as a well-performing leader. He will be contesting in Alor Gajah P135 which is currently held by Mohd Redzuan Md Yusof of Bersatu.

Another possible seat for Amanah to grab is Tasik Gelugor P042 in Penang. This seat was won by UMNO’s Shabudin Yahya in GE14 with a small majority of 81 votes. He won 18,547 votes against Bersatu’s Marzuki Yahya who had 18,466 votes and PAS’ Rizal Hafiz Roslan who gained 14,891 votes.[33] Amanah is assigning Nik Abdul Razak Nik Md Ridzuan, Amanah Deputy Youth Chief to contest here.

Amanah is also strategising to field top party leaders such as Khalid Samad to wrestle Titiwangsa P119 away from Bersatu. This will be an interesting seat to watch as UMNO may once again field Johari bin Abdul Ghani, an MP who held the seat for only one term before he was defeated in GE14. Titiwangsa has historically been a highly-contested seat which saw battles between UMNO and PAS. In GE13, Johari defeated PAS here with a small majority of 866 votes, while in GE12, as a progressive female leader from PAS, Lo’Lo’ Mohamad Ghazali had unexpectedly won the seat.

CONCLUSION

As noted earlier, Wan Saiful Wan Jan surmised that Amanah was capable of winning in multi-ethnic constituencies which comprise of at least 30-45 per cent Chinese voters. He further noted that in the context of Johor, Amanah would need a large sum of Malay votes in order to gain a few seats in GE14. He was proven right when Amanah won nine out of the 12 seats that they contested in Johor’s state election. They were also victorious at the parliamentary level, winning Pulai with an overwhelming majority.

However, the Malay vote continues to be crucial and will see an even greater split in GE15. In 2018, “the ethnic Malay vote was split between PH (25%-30%), BN (35%-40%) and PAS (30%-33%).”[34] However, this year, the vote will be split between UMNO, PH, PN, and GTA. This might make things more difficult for Amanah, as GTA’s presence could cause further splits in votes. Nevertheless, if non-Malay voters continue to reject the Malay elite as represented by UMNO, Bersatu and PAS the way they did in 2018, Amanah could survive GE15 comfortably, albeit with reduced seats.

Apart from the ethnic composition of constituencies, another factor that may affect the outcome of GE15 is Undi18 which lowers the voting age from 21 to 18. In GE14, young voters made up 41% of the total voter base, and they played no small role in toppling the BN government.[35] Thus, the addition of more young voters to the voter base may lead to unexpected outcomes.

Amanah will be contesting in as many as 54 seats in GE15. Their work seems cut out for them,[36] in fact, more than half of these seats, being located in the Malay heartland, will be tough-going for them.

ENDNOTES

[1] Maszlee Malik. “Rethinking the Role of Islam in Malaysian Politics: A Case Study of Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah)”, Islam and Civilisational Renewal 8, no. 4 (2018): 459.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Andreas Ufen. “Opposition in Transition: Pre-Electoral Coalitions and the 2018 Electoral Breakthrough in Malaysia”, Democratization 27, no. 2 (2020): 179.

[4] Together with Barisan Jemaah Islamiah See-Malaysia (BERJASA), Parti Bumiputera Perkasa Malaysia (PUTRA), and Parti Perikatan India Muslim Nasional (IMAN), Mahathir formed a new coalition called Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA), which he leads.

[5] Junaidi Awang Besar. “Evolusi dan Dinamika Geopolitik dan Sosiopolitik Gerakan Politik di Malaysia”, Jurnal Sains Sosial dan Kemanusiaan 18, no. 2 (2021): 21-23.  

[6] Wan Saiful Wan Jan. Parti Amanah Negara in Johor: Birth, Challenges and Prospects, Trends in Southeast Asia, no. 9/2017 (Singapore: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, 2017), p. 28.

[7] Andreas Ufen, “Opposition in Transition”, 179.    

[8] Muhamad Helmy Sabtu and Muhamad Nadzri Mohamed Noor. Persaingan Ideologi PAS & Amanah Dalam Politik dan Pilihan Raya. (Bangi: Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 2018), p. 139-140.

[9] Ab Rashid Ab Rahman and G. Manimaran. Pilihan Raya Demokrasi Malaysia: Tanding Pilih Menang Tadbir (Kuala Lumpur: Penerbit Universiti Malaya, 2021), p. 601.

[10] Ibid., pp. 489-490.

[11] “Perkasa Veep Zulkifli Noordin Takes on Khalid Samad”, Malaysiakini, 16 April 2013, https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/226935 (accessed 10 October 2022).

[12] Ab Rashid Ab Rahman and G. Manimaran, Pilihan Raya Demokrasi Malaysia, pp. 503-504.

[13] Irwan Muhammad Zain. “Pakatan Harapan Letak Mat Sabu di Kota Raja”, Astro Awani, 22 April 2018, https://www.astroawani.com/berita-politik/pakatan-harapan-letak-mat-sabu-di-kota-raja-173560 (accessed 10 October 2022).

[14] “Hanipa Pengsan Ketika Himpunan Bulanan JPM”, Malaysiakini, 9 July 2018.  https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/433293 (accessed 15 October 2022). See also Bernama, “Pengsan Dalam Dewan, Ahli Parlimen Sepang Dikejarkan Ke HKL”, Mstar, 4 April 2016, https://www.mstar.com.my/lokal/semasa/2016/04/04/pengsan-dalam-dewan (accessed 15 October 2022).

[15] Ab Rashid Ab Rahman and G. Manimaran, 2021. Pilihan Raya Demokrasi Malaysia, pp. 513-514.

[16] Author’s interviews with Amanah leaders: (a) Adly Zahari, 20 October 2022. He is one of Amanah’s Vice Presidents; (b) Muhammad Faiz Fadzil, 16 September 2022. He is a member of Penang’s State Legislative Assembly, representing Permatang Pasir; (c) Salahuddin Ayub, 5 June 2022. He is Amanah’s Deputy President, and the incumbent MP for Pulai.

[17]“The Progressive Islamists: Can Amanah Triumph Against PAS?” Fulcrum Commentary, 25 October 2022,  https://fulcrum.sg/the-progressive-islamists-can-amanah-triumph-against-pas/, (accessaed 26 November 2022).

[18] Ab Rashid Ab Rahman and G. Manimaran, Pilihan Raya Demokrasi Malaysia, p. 601.

[19] Ibid., p. 508.

[20] Ibid., p. 513.

[21] Ibid., pp. 297-299.

[22] “YB Datuk Dr Hassan Ali”, Perak Today, 21 December 2011, https://peraktoday.com.my/2011/12/yb-datuk-dr-hassan-ali/ (accessed 16 October 2022).

[23] Ab Rashid Ab Rahman and G. Manimaran, Pilihan Raya Demokrasi Malaysia, p. 405-406.

[24] Faris Danial Razi, “Bersatu Pecat Adun Titi Serong, Hasnul Zulkarnain”, Astro Awani, 23 March 2021, https://www.astroawani.com/berita-politik/bersatu-pecat-adun-titi-serong-hasnul-zulkarnain-289623 (accessed 16 October 2022).

[25] “Early Voting in Lumut, Perak”, The Sun Daily, 5 May 2018, https://www.thesundaily.my/archive/early-voting-lumut-perak-YUARCH545426 (accessed 17 October 2022).

[26] “Spotlight on the LCS Scandal”, The Edge Markets, 27 August 2022, https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/spotlight-lcs-scandal (accessed 17 October 2022).

[27] Cynthia Ng, “Anuar Tahir: Former Agitator, Now Legislator”, Astro Awani, 6 July 2018, ttps://www.astroawani.com/berita-dunia/anuar-tahir-former-agitator-now-legislator-223967 (accessed 16 October 2022).

[28] Ab Rashid Ab Rahman and G. Manimaran, Pilihan Raya Demokrasi Malaysia, pp. 464-645.

[29] Ibid., pp. 480-482.

[30] Ahmad Fadhullah Adnan, “Tengku Zafrul Mungkin Bertanding di Kuala Selangor”, Utusan Malaysia, 2 August 2022, https://www.utusan.com.my/nasional/2022/08/tengku-zafrul-mungkin-bertanding-di-kuala-selangor/ (accessed 17 October 2022).

[31] Ibid., p. 297.

[32] Ibid., p. 405, p. 480.

[33] Ab Rashid Ab Rahman and G. Manimaran, Pilihan Raya Demokrasi Malaysia, p. 374.

[34] Andreas Ufen, “Opposition in Transition”, p. 179.

[35] Sara Chinnasamy and Norminaliza Mohamed Azmi, “Malaysian 14th General Election: Young Voters & Rising Political Participation,” The Journal of Social Sciences Research no.4 (2018): 125.              125-138

[36] Bernama, “Amanah to contest 54 parliamentary seats in GE15”, The Edge Markets, 30 October 2022, https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/amanah-contest-54-parliamentary-seats-ge15 (accessed 17 October 2022). To an understanding of Malay heartland voters, see Serina Rahman, 2019. ‘The Rural Malay Voter in GE-14: Expectations, Surprise, and Misgivings’. In The Defeat of Barisan Nasional: Missed Signs or late Surge, edited by Francis E. Hutchinson and Lee Hwok Aun. (Singapore: ISEAS Publishing), p. 153-190.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This Perspective looks at data from the 2018 and 2022 state elections in Johor to understand evolving trends in voter behaviour and what they portend for the upcoming Malaysian General Election. Rather than looking at state assembly seats, it analyses data from polling districts (PDs) within these seats for greater granularity.

Johor is a good bellwether state due to its level of urbanisation and ethnic heterogeneity, which map well onto national averages. It is also the first state to hold elections following the lowering of the voting age and introduction of automatic voter registration. The key findings are as follows:

• The conventional wisdom that voter behaviour differs for parliamentary and state elections is only partially true. There is strong evidence that Barisan Nasional (BN) supporters consistently turn up to vote regardless of the type of election. For Pakatan Harapan (PH), voter turnout is much more variable.

• While BN obtained a massive number of seats in the 2022 election, there is still worrying news for the coalition. Notwithstanding its formidable campaign machinery, high-profile appearances by Najib Razak, and an influx of younger Malaysians, the coalition did not break any new ground over the past four years.

• The 2022 state election was disastrous for PH. The number of votes for the coalition plummeted due to disillusionment, pandemic-related fears, or difficulties for outstation voters to return. PH has areas of reasonably solid support in urban areas that enabled it to secure some seats, but, as with BN, it did not break new ground.

• Compared to 2018, support for all PH component parties dropped. The Democratic Action Party (DAP) remained the most solid, with Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) a surprising second. Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) performed particularly poorly.

• Despite netting few state seats, Perikatan Nasional (PN) did surprisingly well. PN ate into Pakatan Harapan’s support base. Of key importance, the Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) did better out of the partnership than did Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia(Bersatu), with its votes shooting up dramatically from 2018 when it campaigned by itself. Bersatu performed slightly worse compared to 2018 when it was part of PH.

• Unlike BN and PH which have key support bases, PN pulled in a significant number of votes from many different groups. However, under Malaysia’s first-past-the-post system, vote share alone does not translate into seats. If it campaigns by itself, PN is likely to struggle – but may still be a kingmaker.

ISEAS Perspective 2022/104, 27 October 2022

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INTRODUCTION

Now that parliament is dissolved, Malaysia is barrelling towards a General Election. While COVID restrictions are being loosened and campaigning may revert to normal, important structural differences mean that the polls and ensuing results may differ significantly from those held in the past.

Since 2008, elections have been contested by two national coalitions, Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat/Harapan. While PAS played a regional role in the 2018 election, the upcoming parliamentary election will be the first to be contested by three national coalitions. In addition to multi-cornered fights producing unexpected results, it is likely that the parliamentary majority will be narrower than in the past. The ‘rules of the game’ have also changed, with the voting age lowered from 21 to 18 and with automatic voter registration (AVR) enabling more Malaysians to vote.

In order to explore the impact of these changes, this Perspective will compare and contrast voter preferences from the Johor state elections of 2018 and 2022. It will use an overlooked but highly valuable source of voting behaviour – polling district results. In particular, it will explore changes in support for the three coalitions and their component member parties across the two elections, before delving into support by urbanisation status.^[1]

Johor is a good bellwether state for national trends and dynamics. With 3.8 million inhabitants, it is the third-largest state in the country, and its level of urbanisation is roughly at par with the national average. Johor has both large urban constituencies in and around Johor Bahru, as well as very rural areas along the eastern seaboard. The state is also diverse, and its ethnic composition maps well onto national averages.

Johor is also quite important politically, with parties such as UMNO, the Malaysian Chinese Association, and Bersatu having deep connections to the state. The state’s political trajectory has also closely mirrored the federal government’s. Johor is part of a group of ‘heartland’ states that were ruled continuously by BN up until 2018. That year, as with the federal government, PH secured control of the state. Following the Sheraton Move which saw Perikatan Nasional (PN) attain power, Johor was the first state to revert to PN/BN control. 

The 2018 state elections in Johor were held concurrently with the 14^th General Election, which saw Pakatan Harapan win at the national and state levels. The 2022 state election was held in March and was the first election to take place following the lowering of the voting age and establishment of AVR.

Following this introduction, the next section will provide a broad overview of voting trends in Johor by analysing patterns in state seats from 2004 to the present. The subsequent section will then draw on polling district data to explore changes and continuities in voter behaviour across the two elections. The fourth and final section will draw out the implications for GE-15.

OVERVIEW OF STATE SEATS

Barisan Nasional has traditionally dominated Johor, enjoying an average of ten percent greater support in the state relative to the national average. This is due to several factors such as: the founding of UMNO in the state; the limited appeal of PAS due to the state’s traditionalist version of Islam; a legacy of large-scale rural development projects; and the dispersion of the Chinese electorate across more seats than in states such as Selangor and Penang.^[2]

This translated into extensive control of the state assembly, with BN traditionally netting 90 percent of seats or more. This began to change in 2008 when Pakatan Rakyat, the precursor to Pakatan Harapan, made its first inroads in Johor (Table 2). This was led by the Democratic Action Party (DAP) in urban mixed constituencies. While an important change, this trend lagged notably in comparison to other urbanised states such as Selangor or Penang which fell to the opposition that year.

The trend was accentuated in 2013, when most urban and mixed seats that had been held by smaller BN parties, such as MCA and Gerakan, fell to Pakatan Rakyat. Nonetheless, the number of rural Malay-majority seats in the assembly meant that Barisan Nasional retained control.^[3] Indeed, while the smaller BN parties suffered in 2013, UMNO performed largely as it had in the past. Seen from a historical perspective, 2018 was an aberration for BN and specifically for UMNO. From more than 30 seats, Malaysia’s grand old party was only able to secure 17 seats.

Insofar as PH is concerned, 2013 was key for the DAP as it secured 13 seats that year. In 2018, it only secured one additional seat, with the other PH member parties Amanah, Bersatu (then part of PH), and PKR securing nine, eight, and five seats, respectively. In addition to the urban centre around Johor Bahru and Muar which DAP has held since 2013, PH made headway for the first time in large swathes of North and Central Johor, which are much less urbanised (Map 1).

While the period 2008-2018 was one of steady progress for Pakatan Harapan, the 2022 state election was very much a slide backwards (Map 2). From 36 seats in 2018, PH retained a mere 12 four years later. The DAP weathered the onslaught in better shape, holding 10 seats while losing four. Amanah and PKR’s inroads were almost completely reversed, leaving one seat for each of the two parties. The Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA), which had an electoral understanding with PH in 2022, won one more seat. These seats were, almost in their entirety, urban centres.^[4]

For the newly-formed Perikatan Nasional, the 2022 election was underwhelming. PAS equalled its 2018 performance of one seat and Bersatu’s holdings tumbled from eight seats to two.

For BN, the 2022 election seemed to herald a return to its glorious past. The coalition more than doubled its seats from 19 to 40, with UMNO netting no less than 33. Even the MCA and MIC, which had been virtually wiped out in 2018, seemed revitalised.

However, when votes – rather than seats – are analysed, the picture is rather different. Despite the passage of electoral reforms and the increase of Johor’s electorate from 1.8 million to 2.6 million votes, roughly the same number of people voted in the two elections, meaning turnout tumbled from 83 per cent to a mere 54 per cent. The election was affected by the pandemic, with health concerns prompting many to stay away, despite safety protocols.^[5] There was also a cap on the number of people who could use the Vaccinated Travel Lane to cross from Singapore to vote.^[6] And, despite postal voting being available for Johoreans resident overseas, only 7,800 ballots were requested – due to a lack of awareness as well as the short period for registration.^[7]

Despite its impressive number of seats, BN garnered almost exactly the same number of votes in 2022 as it did in 2018. Bearing in mind that 2018 was the coalition’s worst electoral performance and took place amidst the widespread rejection of GST and the Najib Razak administration, it should worry the coalition that it only secured an additional 17,000 votes despite the total vote bank growing by 800,000.

Despite BN’s middling performance in terms of votes, the picture was very different for PH. 2022 was an unmitigated disaster, as the coalition netted less than half the number of votes it did in 2018. In contrast, PN did very well, coming within a hair’s-breadth of matching PH’s number of votes and more than tripling PAS’s total votes in 2018.

POLLING DISTRICT RESULTS

Analyses of Malaysian politics usually focus on parliamentary or state seats which, while determinant for securing power, aggregate voter preferences at a very high level. In practice, votes are collected at the polling district (PD) level. Given that individual votes are kept secret, PDs are the smallest unit of aggregated election data available for analysis. While Johor has 56 state seats, the state has 949 polling districts – giving us an average of 17 PD per seat.^[8] Thus, using PD data is akin to magnifying the resolution by a factor of seventeen, allowing for more detailed findings. In addition, PDs can be grouped according to variables of interest, such as degree of urbanisation and ethnicity to explore voter preferences.

Map 3 provides an illustration of how the parliamentary seat Tanjong Piai as well as its state seats of Pekan Nanas and Kukup – all within Johor – are divided into polling districts. Each coloured polygon represents a PD, and as can be seen from the hues of lilac, ethnic composition varies tremendously across PD even within the same state seat.

Overall Support by Coalition and Party^[9]

What, then, do the results at the polling district reveal for the three coalitions and parties?

At first glance, BN’s performance in 2018 and 2022 is indistinguishable (Figure 1). In both cases, the median vote share across PDs was under 50 per cent, although it was marginally higher in 2022. The top of the ‘box’ or upper quartile (marking 75 per cent of all PDs) remained unchanged at 60 per cent. There is a slight decline at the top of the upper whisker (which indicates BN’s best performing polling district) in 2022, although this still remained above 90 per cent. This remarkably similar performance across the two years indicates real discipline by BN grassroots networks at mobilising people to vote regardless of the occasion. The result is also impressive given pandemic worries and the greater number of parties contesting in 2022. 

Looking at the result by component party (Figure 2), the consistency in performance is provided by the largest BN party, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO). This stabilising performance is magnified by the fact that UMNO contested in about two-thirds of seats in both elections. Turning to the other coalition partners, MCA did marginally better in 2022 than it did in 2018, perhaps due to votes that would have gone to its former coalition partner, Gerakan. The Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) did substantially better in 2022 than in 2018, but the impact was limited given that it only contested in four seats.

While BN’s results denote consistency, PH’s indicate very variable performance (Figure 3). In 2018, the coalition performed spectacularly, with the median PD value just a shade below 50 per cent – marginally higher than BN’s. And the upper quartile (or 75 per cent) of PDs was 70 per cent – 10 per cent than BN’s. In some PDs, as indicated by the upper whisker, the coalition netted nearly 100 percent of votes. However, in contrast to BN which garnered at least 20 per cent of the vote in its worst-performing PDs, PH secured zero votes in a number of polling districts.

2022 was a catastrophe. The median value across the polling districts dropped by more than half – to a mere 20 percent. In other words, Pakatan Harapan obtained 20 per cent or less of the votes in half of the polling districts. What saved PH from a complete rout was its performance in the top quarter of PDs, with vote shares between 45 to 90 per cent. This one quarter of districts is largely concentrated in urban and mixed seats, which then translated into majorities in 13 seats.^[10]

All component parties underperformed in 2022 relative to their 2018 showing. Even the DAP, the most consistent performer, saw its median vote share fall from almost 70 per cent to under 50 percent. In 2018, the party managed to net some votes even in the most inhospitable PDs where it contested. However, in 2022, it received close to zero per cent vote share in some districts. This was not confined to DAP, as all PH component members had PDs where they received almost zero per cent vote share.

In terms of median vote share for polling districts, the other parties performed much worse. PKR did not perform particularly well in 2018, receiving a median 30 per cent vote share. However, this collapsed to 10 percent in 2022. Interestingly, despite PKR being the lead party in PH, Amanah performed substantially better in 2018 and 2022. Its median vote share was 50 per cent in 2018, before collapsing to just under 20 per cent in 2022. Indeed, even the newly-minted party, Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA) performed better than PKR in 2022 – with a similar median value of ten per cent but a higher upper quartile.

Turning to PAS, it performed poorly in 2018, as it had in previous elections in Johor (Figure 4). The Islamist party only contested in 41 of the 56 seats and averaged about 10 per cent of the vote share in the PDs within the seats where it contested.

However, the partnership with Bersatu paid off in 2022. Through pooling candidates, Perikatan Nasional was able to contest all seats and actually had a median support level of 30 per cent, similar to PH. However, unlike PH, its top 25 per cent of PDs had a much lower vote share – meaning that it was not able to secure majorities in a significant number of seats. When the results for PN by party are analysed, PAS actually outperformed Bersatu, with a slightly higher median vote share (Figure 5). The contrast with its performance in 2018 is striking (Figure 4). 

Voter Preferences and Urbanisation Status

The Election Commission provides information as to the ethnic breakdown of each PD, and by looking at aspects such as physical size and population density, it is possible to establish the degree of urbanisation of each PD.^[11] The proportions of rural, semi-urban, and urban PDs are as follows: 40.6; 28.6; and 30.9, respectively. It is possible to have rural PDs within an urban seat, and semi-urban PDs in rural seats.^[12]

With regard to electoral performance in rural, semi-urban, and urban PDs across the two years for BN, three things stand out (Figure 6). First, as is to be expected, BN polls much better in rural districts and its level of support trends down in line with greater urbanisation. Second, its performance across the different types of PD in the two years is remarkably consistent – with little to no change. Third, despite UNDI-18 and automatic voter registration, there is no perceptible effect on BN’s level of support. 

Conversely, there is a very strong link between support for PH and urbanisation status, which also holds across both years (Figure 7). However, unlike for BN, support levels dropped across the board in 2022. While support dropped from a median of 70 per cent in urban areas in 2018 to a little under 50 per cent in 2022, there was enough majority support in sufficient PDs to secure a number of state seats. However, support dropped in semi-urban areas with median values under 50 percent; in rural areas it halved from 20 to 10 per cent. 

Figure 8: Vote Share by Polling Districts’ urbanisation status for PH in 2018 (left) and 2022 (right)

Turning to PAS in 2018, while support was consistently low across all types of PD, there is slightly more discernible support in rural areas (Figure 8). In 2022 and with the partnership with Bersatu, this relationship is more visible. As with BN, there is greater support for PN in rural areas, followed by semi-urban and urban areas, with median voter share descending from 30 percent in the case of the first down to 20 percent in the case of the third. This increase in support for PN across the three areas is roughly consistent with the vote share that PH lost in 2022 and is particularly marked in rural areas. This points to the unusual shift in votes in these areas to PH due to the role of senior Bersatu leaders in 2018 that was then lost in 2022.

IMPLICATIONS FOR GE-15

This analysis of voter preferences provides important indications of voter behaviour ahead of GE-15.

Given the remarkable consistency in BN’s performance across time and in the different types of PDs, there are grounds to anticipate that the coalition and its grassroots networks will be able to produce a similar performance in the upcoming parliamentary election. What is worrying, though, is that BN does not seem to have moved on from its nadir of 2018, with virtually no new supporters – despite the influx of nearly 800,000 eligible voters.

For PH, the heady atmosphere of 2018 has dissipated and its supporters are markedly less consistent than BN’s. The opposition coalition’s platform of good governance and institutional integrity plays well in urban areas. However, lacking the grassroots networks that BN does, PH is largely reliant on people to organise their own transport to vote. As with BN, the coalition does have solid pockets of support and this enables it to secure a certain number of seats. But, in 2022, turnout for the coalition was decimated. While BN can rest assured that its supporters will turn up to vote regardless of the occasion, PH needs to hope that its supporters treat state and parliamentary elections differently. It really needs to hold onto its urban pockets and work the ground in semi-urban constituencies to drive up support.

Despite flying below the radar, Perikatan Nasional did well in 2022. Its partnership with Bersatu allowed it to dramatically expand its scope and net 24 per cent of the vote. Broadly, while PH was affected by many people choosing not to vote, its performance was also really affected by part of its previous vote swinging to PN. However, unlike PH, PN lacks the unshakeable support in certain types of constituency that would allow it to secure seats.

Barring unforeseen events, BN’s performance will be solid but this ultimately depends on the relative success or failure of its competitors.

ENDNOTES

[1] This is the first of two Perspectives comparing the 2018 and 2022 Johor state elections. The second will examine voting patterns by ethnicity, turnout, and the lowering of the voting age.

[2] Hutchinson (2018) GE-14 in Johor: The Fall of the Fortress? ISEAS-Trends 2018-03, Singapore: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute; Zhang, Choo, and Fong (2021) The Democratic Action Party in Johor: Assailing the Barisan Nasional Fortress, ISEAS-Trends 2017-01, Singapore: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

[3] Hutchinson and Zhang (2022) The Johor State Election: A Spiderweb of Splits, Spats, and Surprises. ISEAS Perspective 2022-23.

[4] There are ten districts in Johor (inclusive of Johor Bahru district) and almost all the PH seats outside of Johor Bahru district are in district capitals. Mengkibol, Tangkak, Bentayan, Penggaram, Senai, Jemantah are within the district capitals of the Kluang, Ledang, Muar, Batu Pahat, Kulai and Segamat districts, respectively.

[5] See this link:

[6] See this link:

[7] See this link:

[8] Johor has 56 state seats, but the results from one state seat, N51 Bukit Batu, have been discounted for 2022 due to contested election results. Thus, the results from 2018 refer to 949 polling districts and those from 2022 refer to 933 districts.

[9] The terms used in the Box and Whisker figures are as follows:

[10] Skudai is an example of a DAP urban stronghold, which the party has held since 2008. In 2022, Marina Ibrahim from DAP won with a majority of about 14,000 out of the 45,000 votes cast. In three quarters of the 21 polling districts within Skudai, DAP had an average vote share of at least 60 per cent.

[11] The following parameters are used to determine the urbanisation status of polling districts: Global Human Settlement Layers, World Population Density, projected trends for cities from the Statistics Department of Malaysian, and area verification from the Town and Country Planning Department.

[12] For instance, Kota Iskandar is an urban seat which encompasses parts of Johor Bahru. Nonetheless, there are also rural PDs within Kota Iskandar such as Kampong Pulai, Tiram Duku, and Tanjong Kupang. The rural seat of Paloh also has semi-urban PDs including Bandar Paloh Utara, and Bandar Paloh Selatan.