Trends in Southeast Asia 2024

The Trends in Southeast Asia series serves as in-depth analysis of contemporary geopolitical and socio-economic forces in the region. The series is written for policymakers, diplomats, scholars and students of the region with emphasis on empirical and observable trends, and less on theory-building or historical accounts of events.

The aim of Trends is to offer concrete accounts of the dynamism in the region as transnational processes impact local communities, national governments as well as bilateral and foreign relations. Subjects that are of interest to the series are national elections; economic patterns and growth; demographic changes and their social implications; migratory patterns; religious and ethnic trends; bilateral relations and geopolitics in the region in relation to the larger powers of Japan, China and the US. This series undergoes a peer-review process.

 

“Malaysia’s Responses to Issues Pertaining to Palestine” by Mohd Faizal Musa

 

This paper discusses the Malaysian government’s responses to issues pertaining to Palestine over the years. It illustrates that while Islam has been a crucial rallying point in supporting the rights and independence of the Palestinians, it is also arguable that Malaysia’s foreign policy outlook is also influenced by domestic politics and the need for the government of the day to maintain its support from the Muslim voter base.

 

 

“Why Young Malay Voters in Malaysia Are “Turning Green”” By Syaza Shukri

 

There is an increasing trend among young Malay voters in Malaysia to support the Perikatan Nasional coalition, with a particular emphasis on the Islamist party PAS. Despite recognition of the weak economy as a significant national concern, young Malay voters continue to place a higher emphasis on Muslim leaders who assert their commitment to safeguarding the rights of Islam in Malaysia.

 

 

“Myanmar’s Resistance and the Future of Border Trade: Challenges and Opportunities” by Jared Bissinger

 

Since the start of Operation 1027, Myanmar’s resistance groups have gained control over large parts of key overland trade routes and a number of important border crossings, fundamentally changing the realities in the control of border trade. Despite these losses, the State Administration Council (SAC) retains control-of-trade-related institutions that are vital for accessing an international trading system characterized by state-to-state interactions.

 

 

“Beyond Slacktivism: The Dynamic Relationship between Online and Offline Activism among Southeast Asian Youths” by Iim Halimatusa’diyah

 

Despite a surge in youth activism across Southeast Asian countries, comparative analysis in this region remains scarce. Using data from the World Values Survey of several studies, and case studies on Indonesia, this article examines the extent to which online political activism serves as a catalyst for mobilization, awareness and community building among young people in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines.

 

 

“Shifting to a Higher Gear: The Saga of Malaysia’s National Carmaker Proton” by Pritish Bhattacharya and Francis E. Hutchinson

 

Proton has been a vital part of Malaysia’s industrialization journey and a key pillar of its modernization drive.

 

 

“Scrutinizing the DAP’s Success in the 2023 Malaysian State Elections” by Ong Kian Ming

 

Using granular polling station and polling stream data for forty-seven seats contested by the Pakatan Harapan (PH) member Democratic Action Party (DAP), this paper explores the effect of this relationship on voter support. This Trends in Southeast Asia finds that, contrary to expectations, DAP actually gained voter support from campaigning with UMNO.

 

 

“ASEAN Post-2025: Reimagining the ASEAN Economic Community” by Julia Tijaja, Simon Tay and Sanchita Basu Das

 

ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) building is a long journey. For continued relevance and impact, the AEC must remain dynamic while taking into consideration evolving contexts and emerging opportunities and challenges.

 

 

“Prosperity or Predicament? Decoding Certification Challenges in Malaysia’s Palm Oil Industry” by Serina Rahman and Lee Poh Onn

 

Sabah is used as an illustrative case study of an effective approach for statewide certification using both the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) and Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) schemes.

 

 

“How Thailand’s Move Forward Party’s Fandom Strategy Shaped the 2023 General Election” by Alexandra Colombier

 

The strategies involved in achieving celebrity status for Thai politicians are varied. This paper provides a case study of the factors behind the success of Pita Limjaroenrat and the Move Forward Party and contrasts these with reasons why Pita's key political opponents were less effective.

 

 

“China’s Cultural Diplomacy in Indonesia: The Case of a Transnational Singing Contest” by Chang-Yau Hoon and Ardhitya Eduard Yeremia

 

This article examines Chinese cultural diplomacy in the realm of entertainment, specifically “The Melody of Spring: Transnational Spring Festival Gala” hosted in Nanning, Guangxi, and disseminated globally each Chinese New Year.