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Articles & Commentaries

2021/49 “ASEAN Navigates between Indo-Pacific Polemics and Potentials” by Hoang Thi Ha

 

Driven by their growing strategic concerns over a powerful and assertive China, the Quad countries have pushed forward their Indo-Pacific strategies and enhanced the Quad in both institutional and operational terms in the past two years. In this picture, the Royal Australian Navy rejoins the Malabar Exercise in 2020 which will therefore now include all four Quad countries. Credit: U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Despite releasing the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific in June 2019, ASEAN member states have yet to reach a coherent view on the Indo-Pacific.
  • They remain ambivalent about the Indo-Pacific to different degrees due to the concept’s malleability and external pressures from China and Russia.
  • As one of the more forward-leaning ASEAN members on the Indo-Pacific, Indonesia adopts a constructivist ASEAN-led approach focusing on maritime connectivity and marine resources. Vietnam’s approach has a realist balance-of-power anchor.
  • ASEAN has been pragmatic in promoting different AOIP elements with different Dialogue Partners who hold divergent views on the Indo-Pacific.
  • The Biden Administration’s proactive moves to consolidate the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy, especially through the first Quad summit, has injected further dynamism into the Indo-Pacific discourse with a broader and more positive agenda.
  • ASEAN and its member states should continue to leverage the Indo-Pacific concept and its unfolding possibilities to promote and defend their interests.

*Hoang Thi Ha is Fellow and Lead Researcher (Political-Security) at the ASEAN Studies Centre, ISEAS –Yusof Ishak Institute.

INTRODUCTION

In June 2019, the ASEAN leaders adopted the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP)[1] to present their collective voice on the emerging Indo-Pacific discourse that had been actively promoted by the US, India, Japan and Australia – four members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). The Outlook articulates ASEAN’s inclusive and cooperative “vista” on the Indo-Pacific with the hope to present “an inclusive meeting place for the competing visions of regional order offered by great and regional players” and to maintain ASEAN’s relevance and Southeast Asia’s strategic autonomy[2] in this discourse.

The Indo-Pacific maritime domain has since become more contested and crowded with increased risks of conflicts over critical flashpoints such as the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea (SCS) and the East China Sea. Geopolitical tensions as well as trade and territorial disputes between China and the Quad members have increased sharply and have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Driven by their growing strategic concerns over a powerful and assertive China, the Quad countries have pushed forward their Indo-Pacific strategies and enhanced the Quad in both institutional and operational terms in the past two years. Of note, despite recent leadership change in the US and Japan, both the Biden and Suga administrations have made it clear by policy announcements and actions that the Indo-Pacific is here to stay.[3]

Whereas the Quad countries remain steadfast and perhaps even more determined in their Indo-Pacific strategies, the Indo-Pacific discourse in Southeast Asia is much more chequered. This Perspective examines the continued ambivalence within ASEAN towards the Indo-Pacific due to both internal incoherence and external sensitivities. It looks at Indonesia and Vietnam as examples of two different approaches within ASEAN on the Indo-Pacific. It also ponders what the future may hold for ASEAN member states (AMS) as the US, India, Japan and Australia continue to solidify their Indo-Pacific strategies through the Quad.

ONE TERM, MANY MEANINGS

The AOIP was expected to provide a common script for AMS amid mounting external pressures on them to take a stand on the Indo-Pacific. In reality, it remains the case that AMS have yet to internalise the Indo-Pacific to the same extent, and most still hold ambivalence towards the concept. Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan was realistic about the modest impact of the AOIP at the time of its adoption: “The Outlook will not stop strategic forces from pulling individual ASEAN Member States in different directions. ASEAN unity – the pre-requisite for ASEAN Centrality – will be tested. Our inherent diversity will make internal coherence difficult, but ultimately more necessary too.”[4]

Developments in the past two years have borne this out. The AOIP is not a magic wand that instantly removes AMS’ reluctance to embrace the term “Indo-Pacific”. In their national submissions to the ARF Security Outlook 2020, all AMS, except Vietnam, continued to use the term “Asia-Pacific” to describe the broader region. Vietnam meanwhile used neither term – arguably a deliberate omission given that “Asia-Pacific” was still featured in its ARF Security Outlook 2019 submission.[5]

Much ambivalence among Southeast Asian countries towards the Indo-Pacific is attributed to the malleability of this concept. In the 2019 and 2020 editions of the State of Southeast Asia (SSEA) survey undertaken by the ASEAN Studies Centre of ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, the majority of respondents – 61.3% (2019) and 54% (2020) – thought that “the concept is unclear and requires further elaboration.” Meanwhile, few of them – 17.2% (2019) and 28.4% (2020) – pinned their hope on the concept to present “a viable option for a new regional order.”[6]

There is a sense of déjà vu reminiscent of “Asia-Pacific” when the term was first trending in the early 1990s. Scholar Arif Dirlik then tried to address the question “What is the Pacific?” by specifying “whose Pacific and when”. He wrote: “In a fundamental sense, there is no Pacific region that is an “objective” given, but only a competing set of ideational constructs that project upon a certain location on the globe the imperatives of interest, power, or vision of these historically produced relationships.”[7] The same can be said for the Indo-Pacific which is even more geographically expansive and more amorphous in definition than the Asia-Pacific.

Furthermore, unlike the Asia-Pacific which has taken a relatively solid shape on the global map with both institutional and spatial representation, the Indo-Pacific remains much more malleable and open to “manipulation and interpretation in accordance with configurations of interest and power”.[8] The nouns attached to “Indo-Pacific” are elastic – such as “region”, “vision”, “vista”, “outlook”, “concept”, “construct”, “guidelines” and “strategy”. The adjectives that come with it are equally flexible – including, among others, the Trump Administration’s “free and open”, ASEAN’s “rules-based and inclusive”, or the Biden Administration’s “free, open, inclusive, resilient and rules-based” which combines all of the above.

Yet, no matter how “Indo-Pacific” has been qualified and appropriated by different players to fit their objectives, the overriding geopolitical fact remains that its champions – namely the US, India, Japan and Australia – share the strategic imperative for closer coordination and collective action in dealing with the China challenge even as their concerns over and disagreements with Beijing are not monochromatic. “China containment” may be too reductionist to describe the nuance and complexity in the Quad members’ emerging strategic alignments, but balancing China is arguably the most important rationale behind the Quad’s renaissance. Therefore, in the perceptions of many, the Indo-Pacific continues to carry the baggage of a US-led anti-China coalition, which is abetted by the Trump Administration’s markedly confrontational policy towards Beijing following the COVID-19 pandemic. As for China, its dismissive attitude towards the Indo-Pacific as “sea foam that will soon dissipate”[9] quickly morphed into alert and anger over what it calls the US’ “strategy of hegemony” and “Cold War zero-sum thinking”.[10] Beijing’s heightened sensitivity towards the Indo-Pacific has added to the reluctance of Southeast Asian countries to fully and officially endorse the Indo-Pacific concept.

The embrace of the Indo-Pacific in ASEAN’s dialogue relations and ASEAN-led mechanisms has been patchy, given that its Dialogue Partners are polarised on this issue. As demonstrated in the ARF Security Outlook 2020, China and Russia steadfastly hold on to “Asia-Pacific”; the Quad countries strongly advocate for “Indo-Pacific” and the remaining Dialogue Partners are caught in the middle of the spectrum.[11] Differences on whether the region should be called “Asia-Pacific” or “Indo-Pacific” almost derailed the issuance of the Joint Declaration to mark the 10th anniversary of the ADMM-Plus in December 2020.

ASEAN therefore has to sing different tunes with different Dialogue Partners when it comes to the Indo-Pacific. For example, ASEAN recognises the common principles and is exploring possible cooperation between its AOIP and Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) and India’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Imitative (IPOI), as reflected in the Joint Statement of the 2020 ASEAN-Japan Summit on Cooperation on ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific[12] and the ASEAN-India Plan of Action 2021-2025.[13] The language in the ASEAN-US Plan of Action 2021-2025[14], on the other hand, is more guarded but there is a clear willingness to leverage the US’ Indo-Pacific vision to support the normative ballast of the AOIP. As for China, ASEAN takes a different tack focusing on development and connectivity, as reflected in the 2019 ASEAN-China Joint Statement on Synergising the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC) 2025 and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).[15] This is indeed ASEAN’s promiscuous diplomacy at its best.

INDONESIA AND VIETNAM – A TALE OF TWO INDO-PACIFIC APPROACHES

Within ASEAN, Indonesia and Vietnam are arguably the most forward-leaning in embracing the Indo-Pacific construct, albeit from different perspectives. For Indonesia which saw its own Indo-Pacific cooperation concept reincarnated in the AOIP, embracing “Indo-Pacific” means giving full expression and effect to the Outlook. Indonesia has pushed, with little success, for follow-up to the AOIP at the East Asia Summit (EAS). Indonesia also actively promoted support for the AOIP at the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and with ASEAN Dialogue Partners. Speaking at the 2020 ASEAN-US summit, foreign minister Retno Marsudi said: “Indonesia will always hope the US becomes an important and strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific region, including in the application of ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific”.[16]

Through the AOIP, Jakarta aims to promote a non-aligned Indo-Pacific that is led neither by America nor China but is ASEAN-centred, one that is anchored in the normative elements and four key cooperation areas of the Outlook. ASEAN centrality is both an end and a means in Indonesia’s Indo-Pacific vision, which befits the role that Indonesia sees for itself as “ASEAN’s leader and as a global middle power”.[17] As noted by Dewi Fortuna Anwar, the AOIP “underlines the importance that Indonesia places on ASEAN as the cornerstone of its foreign policy, emphasising ASEAN’s centrality as the primary vehicle for managing relations with the major powers in the Indo-Pacific region.”[18]

Also in line with President Jokowi’s foreign policy pragmatism, Indonesia prioritises the implementation of the AOIP’s four priority areas of maritime cooperation, connectivity, sustainable development, and economic cooperation. This is indeed the extension of Jakarta’s Indo-Pacific cooperation concept that focuses on promoting maritime trade and connectivity and protecting marine resources rather than diving into the narrative of great power rivalry.[19] Indonesia planned to host the Indo-Pacific Infrastructure and Connectivity Forum in 2020 as “a manifestation of Indonesia’s Indo-Pacific cooperation concept” and as part of its follow-up agenda on the AOIP.[20] The event is yet to take place, and was postponed due to COVID-19. Indonesia is also the proponent of the EAS Statement on Marine Sustainability in November 2020.[21]

Compared to Indonesia’s constructivist ASEAN-led approach, Vietnam’s embrace of the Indo-Pacific has a realist balance-of-power anchor that is more receptive to minilateral engagements outside the ASEAN framework. Hanoi is more interested in leveraging the Indo-Pacific discourse for its own security and economic interests than in promoting the AOIP for its own sake. Officially, Vietnam maintains the term “Asia-Pacific region” as reflected in the Political Report of the recent 12th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV).[22] Yet, even as Hanoi stops short of an official endorsement of the Indo-Pacific, it has tacitly embraced this construct in both declaratory and substantive ways.

Vietnam’s worries over China’s assertive actions in the SCS, hence the imperative to find a counterbalance, is an underlying key factor for that embrace. Whenever Vietnam engages in the Indo-Pacific discourse, it always evokes the principles of independence and sovereignty, respect for legitimate rights and interests of all nations, and upholding of international law and rules-based order. Commenting on the Trump Administration’s declassified Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific on 14 January 2021, the spokeswoman of Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: Vietnam “welcome[s] regional connectivity initiatives, contributing to peace, stability, cooperation and development of the region based on rules and respect for international law, as well as respecting the legitimate rights and interests of all countries, including ASEAN’s central role in the evolving regional structure.”[23]

The past year also witnessed the strengthening of Vietnam’s bilateral relations with the Quad countries, all of which attach increasing importance to Hanoi in their respective Indo-Pacific strategy. Hanoi welcomed Japan’s new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga in his first overseas trip in October 2020 and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien in the last few months of the Trump Administration. The Joint Vision Statement of the Vietnam-India Virtual Summit in December 2020 saw Vietnam embrace the term “Indo-Pacific” for the first time in a high-level joint statement. It says “enhanced defense and security partnership between Viet Nam and India will be an important factor of stability in the Indo-Pacific region” and highlights “the AOIP and India’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative to further promote partnership in the Indo-Pacific region”.[24]

Notably, Vietnam’s engagement with the Quad members on the Indo-Pacific is as much about economics as it is about security. As part of their broader efforts to present an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative and to reduce over-reliance on China-centred production networks, the US, Japan and Australia, individually or jointly, see Vietnam as a preferred destination for their infrastructure financing and supply chain resilience initiatives. In November 2020, the chief of the CPV Central Economic Committee Nguyen Van Binh held a virtual conference with the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), the United States International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and Australia’s Export Financing Agency (EFA) to promote infrastructure financing in Vietnam.[25] Another high-profile event was the Indo-Pacific Business Forum (IPBF) in November 2020 with the participation of Vietnam’s foreign and trade ministers. Such high-level political endorsement has been translated to a series of energy projects with American investors, especially power plants using liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported from the US.[26]

Of note, Vietnam does not shy away from the publicity and sensitivity of the Indo-Pacific narrative that underlie these initiatives. Another example is Vietnam’s participation in the 2020 ad hoc Quad plus three meetings (together with New Zealand and South Korea) to discuss cooperation on pandemic response and economic recovery.[27] This does not necessarily mean that Vietnam will be forthcoming in joining a Quad-plus arrangement proper. Yet, its participation sent an important signal about the range of strategic choices that Vietnam keeps available for itself. 

A CONTENTIOUS BUT DYNAMIC DISCOURSE

While the Indo-Pacific concept is yet to be internalised as part of ASEAN’s strategic culture, there is a growing reckoning within the region that the Indo-Pacific is here to stay. Only 11.8% (2019) and 13.3% (2020) of the respondents to the SSEA survey thought that “the concept will fade away”. When we factor the Quad, the picture becomes even more dynamic and complex. According to the SSEA survey in 2020, 45.8% of the respondents thought that the Quad had ‘positive’ or ‘very positive’ impact on regional security versus only 16.2% choosing ‘negative’ or ‘very negative’ impact. Again, Indonesia’s development-oriented approach and Vietnam’s realism towards the Indo-Pacific also influence their respective perceptions of the Quad. 65.8% of Vietnamese respondents chose ‘positive’ and ‘very positive’ impact, compared to only 31.1% of Indonesian respondents.[28]

There is another layer of complexity when we zero in on what Southeast Asian foreign policy elites think about their respective country’s engagement with the Quad at the operational level. Even though they have divided opinions with regard to the Quad’s impact on regional security, the majority of them (61.6%) thought that their country should participate in security initiatives and military exercises under the Quad framework. Except for Laos and Cambodia, more than half of the respondents from the remaining eight AMS chose “Yes” for this proposition.[29]

The coming into power of the Biden Administration has injected further dynamism into the Indo-Pacific discourse. While inheriting the Trump Administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy, especially in continuing the US’ competitive and even adversarial approach towards China,[30] the Biden Administration has made significant updates to the Quad. Biden’s proactive moves in his very first months to consolidate the Quad through the first-ever Quad summit on 12 March 2021[31] sent a strong message that America is back, in close consultation and coordination with its allies and partners, and is pushing forward the Indo-Pacific strategy.

The current state of affairs has evolved significantly from where the Quad 2.0 was restarted in late 2017 or even where it was last year. The convergence of strategic interests among the four powers has become more solid. The Quad’s institutional set-up, albeit still nascent and ever evolving, is getting more dense and regular.[32] Most remarkably, the Quad’s agenda has been broadened beyond the heavily militarised maritime focus to “put forward a positive agenda and a positive vision”[33] that aims to address global issues and deliver global public goods in climate change, critical technologies and COVID-19 vaccines.

Arguably, the broadening of the Quad’s horizons does not dilute its China focus. Rather, its approach towards addressing the China challenge has become more holistic and multi-dimensional, involving not only raw hard power but also smart power and soft power. Such a positive agenda will help the Quad gain more currency. Especially, the Quad Vaccine Partnership with a focus on Southeast Asia[34] is a calibrated move that, if implemented effectively and in a timely manner, would go a long way in winning hearts and minds in the region. It will also help shift the prevailing narrative on the Quad as a China-containing NATO-like coalition, and demonstrates the collective strength of the Quad for global public goods if they can get their act together. The appeal of their positive agenda and their capacity to deliver would then be harder for other countries to resist.

CONCLUSION

The Indo-Pacific discourse over the past two years has proven to be dynamic and adaptable, with an evolving agenda that engages both Indonesia’s constructivist and Vietnam’s realist approaches. ASEAN and its member states should continue to be creative and adept in leveraging the Indo-Pacific to their interests. For instance, through ASEAN frameworks such as the EAS and ASEAN dialogue relations with the Quad members individually or collectively, they can amplify the Southeast Asia content/focus in the Quad Vaccine Partnership and the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative. Outside of ASEAN, states in the region should continue to utilise existing engagements and emerging platforms at bilateral, trilateral and minilateral levels to access resources and facilities made available by the major powers in the Indo-Pacific context. What is needed is grit and confidence from small states to look at the Indo-Pacific through the lens of unfolding possibilities rather than as a limited set of choices.

ISEAS Perspective 2021/49, 20 April 2021


ENDNOTES

[1] The ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, June 2019, https://asean.org/storage/2019/06/ASEAN-Outlook-on-the-Indo-Pacific_FINAL_22062019.pdf.

[2] Rizal Sukma, “Indonesia, ASEAN and shaping the Indo-Pacific idea”, East Asia Forum, 19 November 2019, https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2019/11/19/indonesia-asean-and-shaping-the-indo-pacific-idea/.

[3] Malcolm Cook, David Engel and Huong Le Thu, “Suga signals commitment to ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’ with Vietnam and Indonesia visits”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2 November 2020, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/suga-signals-commitment-to-free-and-open-indo-pacific-with-vietnam-and-indonesia-visits/; Ken Moriyasu, “Biden’s Indo-Pacific team largest in National Security Council”, Nikkei Asia Review, 11 February 2021, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Biden-s-Asia-policy/Biden-s-Indo-Pacific-team-largest-in-National-Security-Council.

[4] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore, “Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr Vivian Balakrishnan’s Written Reply to Parliamentary Question”, 5 August 2019, https://www.mfa.gov.sg/Newsroom/Press-Statements-Transcripts-and-Photos/2019/08/05-Aug_Min-Written-PQ-Reply.

[5] ARF Annual Security Outlook 2019 and 2020, ARF website, https://aseanregionalforum.asean.org/librarycat/annual-security-outlook/

[6] Tang, S. M. et al., The State of Southeast Asia: 2019 (Singapore: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak, Institute, 2019) and Tang, S. M. et al., The State of Southeast Asia: 2020 (Singapore: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak, Institute, 2020), /category/articles-commentaries/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/.

[7] Dirlik, Arif. “The Asia-Pacific Idea: Reality and Representation in the Invention of a Regional Structure.” Journal of World History, vol. 3, no. 1, 1992, pp. 55–79. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/20078512. Accessed 7 Apr. 2021.

[8] Ibid.

[9] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, “Foreign Minister Wang Yi Meets the Press”, 9 March 2018, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1540928.shtml.

[10] “U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy “hegemonic”: FM spokesperson”, Xinhuanet, 13 January 2021, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-01/13/c_139664977.htm.

[11] ARF Annual Security Outlook 2020, op. cit.

[12] Joint Statement of the 23rd ASEAN-Japan Summit on Cooperation on ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, 12 November 2020, https://asean.org/joint-statement-23rd-asean-japan-summit-cooperation-asean-outlook-indo-pacific/

[13] Plan of Action to Implement the ASEAN-India Partnership for Peace, Progress and Shared Prosperity (2021-2025), https://asean.org/storage/2020/09/ASEAN-India-POA-2021-2025-Final.pdf.

[14] Plan of Action to Implement the ASEAN-United States Strategic Partnership (2021-2025), https://asean.org/storage/2020/09/ASEAN-US-Plan-of-Action-2021-2025-Final.pdf.

[15] ASEAN-China Joint Statement on Synergising the Master Plan on

ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC) 2025 and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), https://asean.org/storage/2019/11/Final-ASEAN-China-Joint-Statement-Synergising-the-MPAC-2025-and-the-BRI.pdf.

[16]  “US strategic partner for ASEAN in Indo-Pacific region: Marsudi”, Antara News, 14 November 2020, https://en.antaranews.com/news/161432/us-strategic-partner-for-asean-in-indo-pacific-region-marsudi.

[17] Weatherbee, D. (2019, Indonesia, ASEAN, and the Indo‐Pacific Cooperation Concept. ISEAS Perspective No. 47.

[18] Anwar, D. F. (2020), Indonesia and the ASEAN outlook on the Indo‐Pacific, International Affairs, 96(1), 111–129.

[19] Jansen Tham, “What’s in Indonesia’s Indo-Pacific Cooperation Concept?”, The Diplomat, 16 May 2018, https://thediplomat.com/2018/05/whats-in-indonesias-indo-pacific-cooperation-concept/.

[20] Karl Lee Chee Leong, “What to Expect from Indonesia’s Indo-Pacific Push in 2020?”, The Diplomat, 6 March 2020, https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/what-to-expect-from-indonesias-indo-pacific-push-in-2020/.

[21] The East Asia Summit Leaders’ Statement on Marine Sustainability, 14 November 2020, https://asean.org/storage/2020/11/31-EAS-Leaders-Statement-on-Marine-Sustainability-FINAL.pdf.

[22] Political Report of the Vietnamese Communist Party at the 13th Party Congress, draft as of 10 October 2020, Vietnamese text, tuoitre.vnhttps://tuoitre.vn/toan-van-bao-cao-cua-ban-chap-hanh-trung-uong-dang-khoa-xii-ve-cac-van-kien-trinh-dai-hoi-xiii-20210126103335381.htm.

[23] “Vietnam supports peaceful, stable Indo-Pacific region”, vov.vn, 14 January 2021, https://vov.vn/en/politics/diplomacy/vietnam-supports-peaceful-stable-indo-pacific-region-830705.vov.

[24] Viet Nam-India Joint Vision Statement for Peace, Prosperity and People, 21 December 2020, http://news.chinhphu.vn/Home/Full-Viet-NamIndia-Joint-Vision-Statement-for-Peace-Prosperity-and-People/202012/42482.vgp.

[25]  “Trưởng ban Kinh tế Trung ương hội đàm trực tuyến với các tổ chức tài chính lớn” (Chief of the Central Economic Committee holds talks with major financing institutions), baochinhphu.vn, 30 October 2020, http://baochinhphu.vn/Utilities/PrintView.aspx?distributionid=412573.

[26] US Mission to ASEAN, Fact Sheet: 2020 Indo-Pacific Business Forum Promotes Free and Open Indo-Pacific, 29 October 2020, https://asean.usmission.gov/2020-indo-pacific-business-forum-promotes-free-and-open-indo-pacific/.

[27] Derek Grossman, “Don’t Get Too Excited, ‘Quad Plus’ Meetings Won’t Cover China”, RAND Corporation, 9 April 2020, https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/04/dont-get-too-excited-quad-plus-meetings-wont-cover.html.

[28] Tang, S. M. et al., op. cit.

[29] Ibid.

[30] Clarissa Yong, “Blinken singles out China as biggest geopolitical test for US”, The Straits Times, 5 March 2021, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/blinken-singles-out-china-as-biggest-geopolitical-test-for-us.

[31] The White House, Fact Sheet: Quad Summit, 12 March 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/12/fact-sheet-quad-summit/.

[32] Tanvi Madan, “What you need to know about the “Quad,” in charts”, Brookings, 5 October 2020, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/10/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-quad-in-charts/; “This week’s Quad ministerial meeting, in four charts”, Brookings, 8 October 2020, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/10/08/this-weeks-quad-ministerial-meeting-in-four-charts/.

[33] Tanvi Madan and Adrianna Pita, “What does the Quad summit signal for U.S. engagement in the Indo-Pacific?” podcast, Brookings, 16 March 2021, https://www.brookings.edu/podcast-episode/what-does-quad-summit-signal-for-u-s-engagement-in-the-indo-pacific/.

[34] The White House, op. cit.

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2021/48 “Medan’s 2020 Mayoral Election: Dynastic Politics Versus Underperforming Incumbency” by Deasy Simandjuntak

 

In this picture, Bobby Nasution (centre), son-in-law of Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo, and his wife Kahiyang Ayu (left) cast their votes in Medan on December 9, 2020, as Indonesia held its nationwide elections. Bobby Nasution, won Medan’s 2020 mayoral election. Picture: Albert Ivan Damanik, AFP.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • President Joko Widodo’s son-in-law, businessman Bobby Nasution, won Medan’s 2020 mayoral election on 9 December 2020. Meanwhile, the President’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka won Solo’s mayoral election in Central Java. In South Tangerang, Banten, all three mayoral candidates have family ties with established elites. Many observers have therefore deemed these local elections as a perpetuation of “dynastic politics”.
  • Bobby’s victory in Medan is especially interesting since President Jokowi did not win here in the 2019 presidential election. A key factor could be the rapprochement between Jokowi and Prabowo after the 2019 election, resulting in Bobby’s candidacy being backed by parties in the governing coalition at the national level, while his rival was aligned with the weaker and fragmented opposition parties. Voters who previously supported Prabowo’s cause became less averse to voting for Bobby.
  • Bobby’s campaign clearly benefited from his personal link to the President’s family. The higher voter turnout in Medan in 2020 reflected the prestige arising from this link, considering that he was an outsider. Moreover, Bobby’s camp encouraged the perception that Bobby would have easier access to resources and policy attention from the central government. 
  • Furthermore, voters in Medan have lost faith in the incumbent mayor who represented an underperforming and corrupt bureaucracy, and are thus less concerned about contributing to “dynastic politics” in Indonesia.

* The author is Associate Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute and Visiting Associate Fellow at the Center for Asia-Pacific Area Studies (CAPAS), Academia Sinica.

INTRODUCTION

On 9 December 2020, Medan, the capital city of North Sumatra, held its mayoral election. It was one of the country’s 270 simultaneously held regional elections, comprising 9 gubernatorial, 224 district heads’ and 36 mayoral, elections. Some voters demanded the postponement of these elections due to the ever-exacerbating Covid-19 pandemic,[1] deeming that health considerations must be prioritised over elite political interests. However, the government went ahead with the elections, stating the “cruciality of upholding people’s rights to vote and be voted for” and that “nobody knows when the pandemic would be over.”[2]

The grave pandemic aside, the 2020 Medan mayoral election exhibited an interesting feature shared with a few other high-profile elections, such as in Solo and South Tangerang, namely “dynastic politics”.[3] A political dynasty can be defined as a network of family politicians who come to power in an election-based regime.[4] Kanchan Chandra writes that dynastic politics involve family members who are “active in politics”, referring to those who hold office in an elected body, whether directly or indirectly elected, or is a candidate for an election, whether direct or indirect, or holding any office in a political party.[5]

The Medan election was won by President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s son-in-law, Bobby Nasution, a newly recruited PDIP cadre and Muslim-Batak young entrepreneur. Bobby Nasution and his running-mate Aulia Rachman won 53% of the total votes, while the incumbent pair Akhyar Nasution and Salman Alfarisi gained 46.5%. Bobby-Aulia’s ticket won 393,533 votes (15 districts) while Akhyar-Salman’s won only 342,380 (6 districts).

Bobby-Aulia’s ticket was supported by eight political parties, namely his father-in-law’s party Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDIP); the former opposition party, Prabowo’s Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra); National Mandate Party (PAN); Golkar Party; National Democrat Party (Nasdem); People’s Conscience Party (Hanura); United Development Party (PPP) and Indonesian Solidary Party (PSI). The incumbent Akhyar Nasution and his running-mate Salman Alfarisi were supported by the Islamist-oriented Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s party Democrat Party (PD).

This was Medan’s fourth direct mayoral election since the implementation of direct elections in Indonesia in 2005. That year, Medan and other North Sumatra’s districts such as Karo and Toba-Samosir were among the first cities to hold direct elections. In 2020, Medan had 1,601,000 registered voters scattered across its 21 sub-districts and 4,303 voting booths. Muslims comprise 61.21% of Medan’s population, Christians 29.99%, Buddhists 8.02%, Confucianists 0.41% and Hindus 0.34%. Medan is a multi-ethnic city, with Batak groups comprising 35.2% of the population, Javanese 33%, Chinese 9.7%, Malays 6.9% and others 15.2%. Medan’s main political parties are PDIP with 10 seats in the city parliament, Gerindra with 10 seats, PKS with 7 seats, PAN with 6 seats, Golkar with 4 seats, Nasdem with 4 seats, PD with 4 seats, Hanura with 2 seats, PSI with 2 seats and PPP with 1 seat.

During the 2019 Presidential election, Medan was among the cities where Prabowo Subianto, President Joko Widodo’s former rival, won. Prabowo was backed by the coalition of the Islamist-inspired PKS and the nationalist Gerindra parties. Back then, the presidential election exhibited a religion-based voter polarisation, with predominantly Muslim regions in the East Coast voting overwhelmingly for Prabowo, while the Christian regions in the West Coast supported Jokowi, who was backed by PDIP.[6]

Similarly, in the North Sumatra gubernatorial election in 2018, Medan was among the regions where the candidate backed by the PKS-Gerindra coalition won. This gubernatorial election also exhibited religion-based polarisation, with predominantly Muslim regions voting overwhelmingly for the all-Muslim ticket supported by PKS-Gerindra, and the Christian regions voting for the religiously mixed ticket supported by PDIP.[7] This means, in addition to being inclined towards candidates possessing Islamist credentials, Medan also tended to support the Gerindra-PKS coalition.

Therefore, the fact that Bobby Nasution, a PDIP cadre with family ties to President Jokowi – who was not popular among Medan voters – could in 2020 win the city’s election, is interesting. How have his family ties with the President helped him in mobilising votes? How did the elements of “dynastic politics” play a role in Medan? What are the key takeaways of this election and what is the outlook for “dynastic politics” vis-à-vis the more familiar religious politics, in the future of Indonesia’s mainstream politics?

CANDIDATES AND CAMPAIGNS

The backgrounds of both contenders in the Medan election are worthy of note, partly because they also reflect the political contestation on the national level. The incumbent Mayor, Akhyar Nasution, a 54-year-old Batak-Muslim, was Vice Mayor under Dzulmi Eldin who won the election in 2015, but who is now in jail for corruption. Akhyar was a PDIP cadre before, yet was dismissed by the party’s Chairman Megawati Sukarnoputri for several reasons: first, it was reported that Akhyar was “upset” with her decision to not endorse his candidacy in Medan’s 2020 election and to support Jokowi’s son-in-law Bobby Nasution instead;[8] second, due to his disgruntlement with PDIP, Akhyar decided to approach Democrat Party, which in the end supported his candidacy together with PKS, whose cadre Salman Alfarisi became Akhyar’s running-mate.[9] Because Akhyar became a member of the Democrat party, PDIP then considered him “disloyal” and decided to dismiss him. It is also important to note that on the national level, the Democrat party and PKS were the only opposition left, since Gerindra had joined the government. The competition between Bobby and Akhyar thus reflects the national level contest between the ruling coalition and the opposition.

Akhyar’s “disloyalty” to PDIP aside, it is worthy of note that the Democrat Party, due to its founding history, is considered by many as PDIP’s long-time rival. The party was established as a vehicle for Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), who was then-President Megawati’s Coordinating Minister for Politics, Legal and Security Affairs, to run for the presidency in 2004. This alliance turned rivalry between SBY and Megawati became deep-seated and was extended into a long-term contention between these political parties.[10]

Although for other regions, being incumbent may at times boost a candidate’s popularity, being incumbent in Medan impacted negatively on Akhyar’s popularity. It is worth mentioning the “special” trait of Medan’s local politics: all elected mayors since 2005 have been convicted for corruption. The first directly elected mayor, Abdillah, who took office in 2005, was convicted in 2008. The second mayor, Rahudman Harahap, was Abdillah’s former Vice Mayor; he was elected Mayor in 2010, and was convicted in 2014. The third mayor, Dzulmi Eldin, Rahudman’s former Vice Mayor, who was himself elected as mayor in 2015, was convicted in 2020. The fact that all Medan’s mayors have been involved with corruption had played a role in the city voters’ political apathy, resulting in a low turnout of 25-35% in the 2010 and 2015 elections. In the 2020 election, most likely due to the candidacy of newcomer Bobby Nasution, who is not connected to the presumably corrupt bureaucracy and who is instead connected to the central government in Jakarta, Medan’s voter turnout reached 55%, almost doubling those of the previous two elections.

Bobby’s business accomplishments were not unknown to his potential voters. The fact that he is a successful young entrepreneur might have appealed to millennial voters. Like all election candidates across the country, Bobby reported his wealth to the Electoral Commission. His total wealth amounted to IDR 54.8 billion (USD 3.82 million);[11] his property assets are worth IDR 34.2 billion (USD 2.38 million) and consist of 3 plots of land in Medan, 1 plot in Solo, Central Java, 3 houses in Jakarta, and 1 house in Deli Serdang, North Sumatra. As the President Commissioner of a company called PT Wirasena Cipta Reswara, Bobby’s main business is in the property sector although he also ventured into agriculture and mining. In the rice sector, Wirasena’s daughter company, PT Pilar Wirasena Sinergi, is connected to the son of the district head of Binjai, North Sumatra, Muhammad Adri Alfisah, whose mother ran in the Binjai 2020 mayoral election but lost. Another affiliated company was PT Sambas Mineral Mining, headquartered in Southeast Sulawesi. Since 2016, Bobby has been also the marketing director of Takke Group, a property business owning various properties in Jakarta. He admitted that he got to know the founder of Takke through his father, who was the director of the state-owned enterprise, PT Perkebunan IV in North Sumatra.[12] As such, Bobby and his family were not unknown in the said province.

The fact that Bobby did not reside in Medan prior to his candidacy[13] – thus making him not a “real” Medan resident – was at first considered not helpful for his campaign.[14] However, the fact that all past mayors of Medan, all real residents of the city, had turned out to be involved in corruption, enabled him, as an outsider, to offer himself as a fresh alternative to the presumably corrupt city bureaucracy. Bobby-Aulia’s official cues thus included “change”, referring to the need for bureaucratic reforms towards clean governance.[15] In addition, they also promised a revitalisation of education institutions, strengthened rule-of-law, promotion of creative economy and small-scale businesses as well as religious harmony and tolerance.[16] Meanwhile, in line with the ideological platform of the PKS party which backed him, some of Akhyar’s promises focused on the interests of Muslim voters, for example, the establishment of an Islamic Centre within three years and a budget for fardhu kifayah, or the Islamic regulations for the preparation for the dead body for funeral, for poor people.[17]

In addition to the above official cues, there were several “unofficial” cues. In some of his speeches, emphasising his ties with the central government, Bobby portrayed himself as a sort of “mediator” between Medan and the government in Jakarta. Seemingly promising easy access to the central government, he said “I dare to make phone calls to Ministers in Jakarta, in order to take care of Medan”.[18] Hearing this, the Akhyar camp sneered, saying that the Indonesian government has structures and regulations in place, and that local governments cannot “just make phone calls to ministers” to get the central government’s attention. Moreover, Bobby’s statement seemed to imply that if Akhyar won the election, the central government would be reluctant to pay attention to Medan. This, according to them, could be considered as unethical campaigning.[19]

Bobby’s campaign did seem to be more “prestigious”. He took his wife, Jokowi’s daughter Kahiyang Ayu, on a number of campaign activities, emphasising in public his family ties with the President. In addition, many well-known national-level political figures supported him by coming to North Sumatra. Among these were Gandjar Pranowo, Central Java’s governor who is a PDIP cadre, and Sandiaga Uno, a Gerindra cadre who was Prabowo Subianto’s vice-presidential candidate in the 2019 election. President Joko Widodo’s own visit to North Sumatra’s Tapanuli region, though not to Medan and not for supporting Bobby, but yet so close to his son-in-law’s Pilkada contestation no doubt helped Bobby’s campaign, since it showed that the President was paying more attention to North Sumatra. 

Akhyar’s camp’s “unofficial” cues included the prioritising of Islamic voters’ interest. Akhyar-Salman pledged a “pact” with the popular Islamist preacher Abdul Somad to prioritise Islamic interests and values. Promises made include involving Islamic religious leaders (ulama), local intellectuals and cultural figures in policy-making, supporting Qur’an recitation activities and to include these in the regional laws, encouraging Islamic alms-giving to finance non-permanent teachers, Qur’an recitation teachers, grave-diggers, mortuary, and other Islamic-related activities and to include these in the regional laws.[20] Denoting that these would be included in the regional laws meant that the incumbent was willing to make Medan officially more “Islamic”. In addition to the pledge, getting the preacher Abdul Somad to support them was itself a supportive signal to the conservative Islamic voters in Medan. This strategy was successful in North Sumatra’s 2018 gubernatorial election, where the pair supported by Abdul Somad won.

DYNASTIC POLITICS AND THE RELATIVE INCONSEQUENCE OF RELIGIOUS MOBILISATION

The fact that Bobby is a wealthy young entrepreneur attracted voters, especially millennials who aspire to learn from his business success. It was also reported that his campaign team used this to emphasize that although he was wealthy and had lucrative businesses and “networks”, he still chose to turn to politics to “dedicate himself” to developing Medan instead.[21]

Medan’s 2020 mayoral election thus exhibited interesting aspects. Firstly, Bobby’s camp benefitted from the fact that he is the son-in-law of the President and that there might be an assumption among voters that Bobby can offer easy access to central resources.

Secondly, unlike during the 2010 Medan election when ethno-religious identities were voters’ political preference,[22] ethnic politics did not take place in 2020 as both candidates were Bataks, and were even from the same Batak clan, Nasution. Similarly, religious identity-politics did not matter as much because both tickets were all-Muslim – although the Akhyar camp tried to promote programmes which directly focused on Islamic interests. This was different from the 2018 gubernatorial election, where one candidate pair was an all-Muslim ticket and the other was a mixed-ticket, and this made religious-based mobilisation more effective.

Thirdly, the fact that Prabowo Subianto, the chairman of Gerindra, has now joined the Jokowi government seemed to have made Medan voters – who voted overwhelmingly for Prabowo in 2019 – less averse to Jokowi’s government. Bobby-Aulia’s (PDIP-Gerindra) pairing also reflected the current closeness between Jokowi and Prabowo at the national level as well as epitomized the reconciliation of the two major nationalist parties which had been political rivals. In contrast, Akhyar-Salman was backed by the Islamist PKS and Democratic Party, which at the national level represented the weak and fragmented opposition camp.

Fourthly, the pandemic significantly reduced the chances of mass mobilisation. This also meant that Abdul Somad, the young firebrand Islamic preacher who is popular in Medan and who was supporting Akhyar-Salman, could not mobilize the masses, which had been his political strength. The figure of Abdul Somad did not therefore influence voters as much as it had during the 2018 gubernatorial election, when the young preacher intensively campaigned for the Gerindra-PKS candidate who eventually won.

Fifthly, in relation to the reduced opportunity for Islamic mobilisation, the Islamist party PKS’ strength has been divided with the birth of PKS’s splinter party Gelora. PKS used to have a very strong party machinery in North Sumatra. In the Medan election, while PKS supported Akhyar-Salman, the splinter party Gelora supported Bobby-Aulia. Gelora national leader Fahri Hamzah even campaigned for the “proximity” of Medan to the central government.[23]

Lastly, the massive flooding which ruined many residential areas in Medan several days before the election became the “nail in the coffin” for Akhyar’s camp, as it accentuated the incumbent local government’s incapacity to deal with this municipal problem.[24]

KEY TAKEAWAYS AND RELATIONS TO THE NATIONAL POLITICS

Bobby Nasution’s electoral triumph in Medan might have been surprising for some, especially considering that President Jokowi, his father-in-law, was not popular with Medan residents in 2019 and did not win the 2019 presidential election in the city. Two factors may explain Bobby’s popularity among Medan’s residents: firstly, there has been a reconciliation between President Jokowi and Prabowo at the national level, which also meant that the Gerindra party had joined the government camp. This might have rendered Medan’s residents less averse to Jokowi’s government, and by proxy, to the candidacy of his family member. Secondly, there might indeed be an assumption that Bobby can provide easier access to central resources. This logic of “patronage” is certainly not unfamiliar to Medan, where clientelism and corruption are known to be rampant.

Aside from factors pertaining to Bobby’s popularity, the 2020 Medan election portrays several interesting features that reflect a general trend in Indonesia’s current politics. Firstly, “dynastic politics” is considered “not unethical” with the excuse that every citizen has the political right to run in elections. This is not a good sign for Indonesia’s democracy, as family-run political machineries perpetuate patronage politics and clientelism which in turn impedes good governance. Moreover, dynastic politics actually shrinks the space for non-dynastic aspiring individuals running in the election, creating an unlevel playing field that undermines democracy. Nevertheless, dynastic politics is also inevitable in Indonesia where decades of authoritarian governance had consolidated power among a few old entrenched (oligarch) elite groups and influenced the rise of new groups. Unfortunately, not many Indonesians would flinch when prominent families assume a hereditary political role.

Secondly, while “dynastic politics” may perpetuate binary politics and polarisation in Indonesia, it does not do that between hardline vs moderate Islam, but between local elites with local roots and new local elites with connection to the central government. The congruence of interests between local elites and central government elites might foster patronage networks and therefore extend the political (and business) clout of the central-based oligarchs to the local level.

Thirdly, the Medan mayoral election portrays national-level political contestation as both camps represented polarisation at the national level. Bobby-Aulia’s candidacy represented the consolidation of PDIP and Gerindra, which was also evident at the national level. Meanwhile,  Akhyar-Salman’s candidacy, which was backed by PKS and Democratic Party, reflected the weak and divided opposition camp at the national level.

Fourthly, in this election, voters seemed to have “penalised” the incumbent for “under-performing”. Voters had witnessed how three mayors who were related to the local bureaucracy had been involved in corruption, therefore a newcomer not connected to the local government was a welcomed change. Moreover, Bobby is also Jokowi’s son-in-law, the fact which made him more popular than the incumbent. Excitement pertaining to Bobby’s candidacy might partly explain the unusually high voter turnout in 2020 compared to past elections. It is noteworthy that non-incumbent contenders who were not as popular as Bobby in the past had not attracted as large a turnout. Lastly, with Bobby’s triumph, Medan residents might be anticipating a more proximate relationship with the central government and easier access to central resources and public goods. Whether this will bring welfare to the people, as Bobby has promised, remains to be seen.

ISEAS Perspective 2021/48, 20 April 2021


ENDNOTES


[1] Indonesia has the worst pandemic situation across Southeast Asia, with more than 1.3 million total cases, more than 32,000 deaths and numbers of daily new cases which could reach up to more than 14,000.

[2] “Ini alasan Pilkada tetap dilaksanakan” (“These are the reasons why Regional Elections would still be held”), Republika, 24 September 2020, https://republika.co.id/berita/qh5ssl467/ini-alasan-pilkada-tetap-dilaksanakan (accessed 25/02/2021).

[3] President Joko Widodo’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka won the mayoral election in Solo, Central Java. In South Tangerang, Banten province, all three mayoral candidates have political ties with established elites; one was a family member of Prabowo Subiyanto’s, the current Minister of Defence and Jokowi’s former presidential rival, one was a family member of Ma’ruf Amin, the current Vice President of Indonesia, and the last one was a member of a local political family who holds power in almost all districts and cities of Banten. See A. Harimurti and Made Supriatma, “The Solo 2020 Election: Jokowi’s Dynasty begins?”, ISEAS Perspective 18, 2021,  /articles-commentaries/iseas-perspective/2021-18-the-solo-2020-election-jokowis-dynasty-begins-by-a-harimurti-and-made-supriatma/ and Syafiq Hasyim, “Dynastic politics in Indonesia’s Tangerang Selatan Triumphs,” ISEAS Perspective 16, 2021, /articles-commentaries/iseas-perspective/iseas-perspective-2021-16-dynastic-politics-in-indonesias-tangerang-selatan-triumphs-by-syafiq-hasyim/

[4] Ayesha Ali, “Do political dynasties hinder development?” in International Growth Centre, 3 July 2017, https://www.theigc.org/project/do-political-dynasties-hinder-development/ (accessed 8/3/2021).

[5] Chandra, Kanchan. “Hardly the end of dynastic rule.” Economic and Political Weekly (2014): 25-28.

[6] Deasy Simandjuntak, “Jokowi’s defeat in Sumatra and the future of religiously charged binary politics”, ISEAS Perspective 70, 2019, /wp-content/uploads/pdfs/ISEAS_Perspective_2019_70.pdf

[7] Deasy Simandjuntak, “North Sumatra 2018 election: Identity politics ruled the day”, ISEAS Perspective 60, 2018,

/images/pdf/ISEAS_Perspective_2018_60@50.pdf

[8] “Ngamuk tak diberi rekomendasi, Akhyar Nasution dipecat Megawati sebagai kader PDIP” (“Upset for not getting a recommendation, Akhyar Nasution was dismissed by Megawati from being PDIP cadre”), Kompas TV, 27 August 2020, https://www.kompas.tv/article/104392/ngamuk-tak-diberi-rekomendasi-akhyar-nasution-dipecat-megawati-sebagai-kader-pdip (accessed 3/3/2021).

[9] “PDI Perjuangan pecat Akhyar Nasution” (“The Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle dismissed Akhyar Nasution”), CNN Indonesia, 9 August 2020, https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20200809210723-32-533847/pdi-perjuangan-pecat-akhyar-nasution (accessed 3/3/2021).

[10] “Luka lama Mega-SBY dibongkar picu ketegangan Democrat & PDIP” (“Mega-SBY’s old wounds are opened  triggering tension between Democrat and PDIP”), CNN Indonesia, 18 February 2021, https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20210218081407-32-607679/luka-lama-mega-sby-dibongkar-picu-ketegangan-demokrat-pdip (accessed 3/3/2021).

[11] “Menilik kekayaan Bobby Nasution, mantu Jokowi dan cawalkot Medan” (“Looking at Bobby’s wealth, son-in-law of Jokowi’s and Medan’s mayoral candidate”), Kompas, 27 September, https://money.kompas.com/read/2020/09/27/071200126/menilik-kekayaan-bobby-nasution-mantu-jokowi-dan-cawalkot-medan?page=all (accessed 5/3/2021).

[12] Aulia Adam, “Jejak bisnis Bobby Nasution, menantu President Jokowi” (“The business traces of Bobby Nasution, President Jokowi’s son-in-law”) Tirto,  8 December 2020, https://tirto.id/jejak-bisnis-bobby-nasution-menantu-presiden-jokowi-f7So (accessed 5/3/2021).

[13] Bobby’s family had lived in several cities. Bobby went to the Bogor Agricultural Institute (IPB) for his bachelor’s and master’s education. He has a house in Jakarta, as well as properties in Medan and Deli Serdang (North Sumatra).

[14] “Bobby Nasution: banyak yang bilang Bobby bukan orang Medan, tidak pernah tinggal di Medan” (“Bobby Nasution: many people say that Bobby is not a real Medan resident because I never reside in Medan”), Kompas, 16 February 2020, https://regional.kompas.com/read/2020/02/16/08034431/bobby-nasution-banyak-yang-bilang-bobby-bukan-orang-medan-tidak-pernah?page=all#page2 (accessed 4/3/2021).

[15] “Bobby Nasution – Aulia Rachman tawarkan reformasi birokrasi di kota Medan” (“Bobby Nasution – Aulia Rachman offer bureaucratic reforms in Medan city”) Sumutnews 22 November 2020, https://kumparan.com/sumutnews/bobby-nasution-aulia-rachman-tawarkan-reformasi-birokrasi-di-kota-medan-1udgy4vmid6/full (accessed 4/3/2021).

[16] Janji Akhyar vs Bobby di pilkada: sekolah gratis hingga Medan bebas korupsi” (“Akhyar’s vs Bobby’s promises in the mayoral election: free education to corruption-free Medan”) Detik, 21 October 2020, https://news.detik.com/berita/d-5222278/janji-akhyar-vs-bobby-di-pilkada-sekolah-gratis-hingga-medan-bebas-korupsi (accessed 4/3/2021).

[17] “Akhyar siapkan jurus menangkan pilkada Medan, ada pembiayaan Fardhu Kifayah” (“Akhyar prepares strategies to win the Medan election, there is budget for Fardhu Kifayah”) Tribunnews, 6 November 2020,  https://www.tribunnews.com/pilkada-2020/2020/11/06/akhyar-siapkan-jurus-menangkan-pilkada-medan-ada-pembiayaan-fardhu-kifayah?page=2 (accessed 4/3/2021).

[18] “Bobby: saya nggak bakal malu telpon menteri untuk masyarakat Medan” (“Bobby: I will not be shy to call Ministers for Medan residents”) Detik, 29 September 2020, https://news.detik.com/berita/d-5193305/bobby-saya-nggak-bakal-malu-telepon-menteri-untuk-masyarakat-medan (accessed 4/3/2021).

[19] Ibid.

[20] “Aman buat 9 komitment dengan Ustaz Somad di atas materai, begini isinya” (“Akhyar-Salman pledged 9 commitments with Preacher Somad on sealed document, this is the content” Sindonews, 7 December 2020, https://daerah.sindonews.com/read/259264/717/aman-buat-9-komitmen-dengan-ustaz-somad-di-atas-materai-begini-isinya-1607321535 (accessed 8/3/2021).

[21] “Bobby tak malu telepon Menteri dibalas kubu Akhyar baru belajar” (“Bobby is not shy to call ministers, Akhyar’s camp’s response: he’s still learning [to become politician]”) Detik, 1 October 2020, https://news.detik.com/berita/d-5196532/bobby-tak-malu-telepon-menteri-dibalas-kubu-akhyar-baru-belajar (accessed 5/3/2021)

[22] In the Medan election’s second round in 2010, the two pairs of contenders represented different ethno-religious identities. The first pair, Rahudman Harahap and Dzulmi Eldin, represented an all-Muslim ticket (Harahap is Muslim-Batak while Eldin is Muslim-Malay). Meanwhile, their contenders, Sofyan Tan and Nelly Armayanti, represented a mixed-ticket; Tan is a Chinese-Buddhist and Armayanti is Muslim. Identity-politics unsurprisingly ruled the day, with Muslim voters being mobilized to vote for candidates “of the same faith”.

[23] “Fahri Hamzah yakin mantu Jokowi bawa Medan ke level dunia” (“Fahri Hamzah is convinced Jokowi’s son-in-law brings Medan to the world level”) CNN Indonesia, 31 October 2020, https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20201030235741-32-564299/fahri-hamzah-yakin-mantu-jokowi-bawa-medan-ke-level-dunia (accessed 9/3/2021).

[24] “Debat pilkada Medan, bencana banjir jadi amunisi menyerang” (“Medan mayoral election debate, flooding became ammunition to attack”) Bisnis Sumatra, 5 December 2021,  https://sumatra.bisnis.com/read/20201205/533/1326878/debat-pilkada-medan-bencana-banjir-jadi-amunisi-menyerang (accessed 5/3/2021).

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2021/47 “Thailand’s Constitutional Amendment Process Halted in its Tracks” by Termsak Chalermpalanupap

 


The sudden demise in parliament of the constitutional amendment bill on 17 March has dealt Thailand yet another debilitating blow. Political temperatures are rising again because of the continuing failure of the administration of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha to improve the country’s 2017 Constitution. In this picture, a man holds a sign that reads, “We are tired of Prayut, stop the 2017 constitution” during a demonstration calling for the creation of a new constitution in Bangkok on March 13, 2020.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Six months after it began, the contentious constitutional amendment process in the Thai parliament ground to a halt on 17 March when the draft bill on amending the 2017 Constitution was rejected in its final reading.
  • This came after the Constitutional Court ruled that the approach taken in the bill would be tantamount to abolishing the existing constitution, and that such a drastic move required a national referendum in order to be constitutional.
  • Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-ocha was immediately blamed for failing to support the constitutional amendment process. Amending the constitution was one of the “urgent” policy issues that he highlighted in Parliament at the start of his administration in mid-2019.
  • General Prayut left it to the Phalang Pracharat Party to manage the amendment process, but the core government party has never been keen on altering a constitution from which it benefits enormously, and secretly teamed up with a group of senators to delay and eventually block the bill.
  • General Prayut and his cabinet have one last chance to salvage the initiative by quickly organising a national referendum on the constitution to let voters decide whether to amend it.

*Termsak Chalermpalanupap is Visiting Fellow in the Thailand Studies Programme, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. Previously he was Lead Researcher on ASEAN political and security cooperation at the Institute’s ASEAN Studies Centre.

INTRODUCTION

The sudden demise in parliament of the constitutional amendment bill on 17 March has dealt Thailand yet another debilitating blow. Political temperatures are rising again because of the continuing failure of the administration of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha to improve the country’s 2017 Constitution. The stillborn attempt to tackle the problematic charter has also soured relations among government parties and threatened to split the ruling coalition.

Ironically, one lucky beneficiary of the growing divisiveness is the prime minister. Since the constitution remains unchanged, he can continue to count on most of the appointed 250 senators to back his premiership, and to vote for his return as prime minister after any early general election. The parliament’s selection of a new prime minister would in that case still follow existing constitutional provisions, which allow senators to join elected MPs in voting for the head of government.[1]

General Prayut has done practically nothing to support the arduous process of amending the constitution – even though its amendment, particularly easing the tough rules impeding constitutional amendment itself – as one of the twelve “urgent” policy issues that he announced in Parliament on 25 July 2019.[2] The premier, who has shunned joining any political party, chose to leave the thankless task to the Phalang Pracharat Party (PPP), the leading member of the ruling coalition.

The PPP has never shown enthusiasm to do any heavy lifting to change the 2017 Constitution. The party has benefited from the existing constitutional framework.[3] Even though, for example, it came second behind the Phuea Thai Party in the 2019 general elections, its nominee, General Prayut, won the premiership with 500 votes (251 MPs and 249 of the 250 senators practically hand-picked by the junta that he formerly led).

Parliament’s current failure to make headway in amending the constitution is now widely suspected to result from a behind-the-scenes effort to prolong General Prayut’s time in power. But remaining in power without improving the constitution will in the long run further erode General Prayut’s legitimacy. It will also provide potent ammunition for protesters to use in escalating their attacks on him and his administration.

PROMISE RENEGED ON, NO ACTION

In the wake of recurring youth-led protests demanding his resignation, the drafting of a new constitution, and reform of the Thai monarchy, General Prayut went on national television on 13 August 2020 to call for an end to “the old-fashioned politicking” which he blamed for spreading the “disease of divisiveness”. He claimed to have recruited highly capable persons to join his cabinet as the “combined Thai team for nation-building”. In his 16-minute monologue, he acknowledged that the future belonged to the younger generations, who are people with the energy to move the country forward.

However, his speech did not address any of the protesters’ demands. Neither did he explain how he and his administration would tackle the “urgent” issue of amending the 2017 Constitution.[4]

General Prayut could have asked his cabinet to formulate a bill on constitutional amendment and submit it to Parliament. Doing so would have sent a clear signal of his intent to all parliamentarians. But he did not take such a proactive move.

Instead, the prime minister left it to the PPP to take the lead in the constitutional amendment process. After six months, his convenient but irresponsible solution resulted in a painful national disappointment.

The PPP was never seriously interested in exerting effort to amend the 2017 Constitution.[5]] It thus teamed up with some members of the Senate to slow down the constitutional amendment process. Eventually, it managed to block the final passage of the constitutional amendment bill, even though the bill awaiting final reading was essentially based on the original bill sponsored by the ruling coalition. The PPP showed no concern for the ardent wishes of its two major allies in the ruling coalition, the Bhumjaithai and Democrat parties.

Both the second and the third largest government parties consider amending the constitution to be one of their primary political missions. In fact, it was one of the Democrats’ conditions for joining the coalition and supporting Prayut’s quest for premiership. Thailand’s oldest political party at first campaigned against offering leadership of the government to an unelected outsider such as General Prayut. After the general elections of 24 March 2019, however, the PPP and General Prayut succeeded in wooing the Democrat Party to join the PPP-led coalition by promising to amend the 2017 Constitution.

Leader of the Opposition Sompong Amornvivat, head of the Phuea Thai Party, now insists that General Prayut and his chief legal counsel Deputy Prime Minister Dr Wissanu Krea-ngam, be held responsible for the aborted constitutional amendment bill. “I believe there was an order [to scuttle the bill]”, said Sompong in a meeting of opposition parties on 18 March.[6]

Has General Prayut in fact reneged on his promise to change Thailand’s 2017 Constitution? No, not quite, according to Dr Wissanu, who countered that he himself also had done nothing wrong,[7] and furthermore, General Prayut had long maintained that he had no control over the Senate.[8]

BLAME THE SENATORS OR THE PPP?

Chapter 15, Section 256 (3), of the 2017 Constitution requires that a majority of the combined two chambers of parliament, the House and the Senate, as well as no fewer than one-third of senators, or 84 of the 250 senators, endorse a proposed constitutional amendment. This crucial stipulation has put the members of the Senate in a commanding position to defend the current constitution. And, in fact, only two senators voted in support of the scuttled bill on 17 March.[9]

Clear reluctance to amend the constitution on the part of the senators led the PPP to ask for more time for consultations. But without consulting its two chief allies, the PPP went ahead to propose on 24 September 2020 the formation of an ad hoc parliamentary committee to study each of seven proposed constitutional amendment bills.[10]

All opposition parties boycotted the committee, whose formation they dismissed as a delay tactic. The committee, headed by veteran Democrat MP Pirapan Saleeratvipak, spent about a month consulting senators and listening to experts, including advocates of a “people’s draft constitution” from the NGO iLaw.[11]

The bill proposing the “people’s draft constitution” was rejected from further consideration in Parliament on 18 November 2020. However, Parliament did accept the opposition’s five draft bills and the ruling coalition’s one draft bill for second readings in detail.

These six draft bills were subsequently merged into one, based essentially on the ruling coalition’s bill. Two significant changes to that bill emerged. One was provision for the formation of a 200-member constitution drafting assembly, with members chosen through direct election. The second was a new rule on constitutional amendment, requiring a vote of merely three-fifths of the members of the combined two chambers of Parliament and not the addition of at least one-third of the senators.

Surprisingly, at first most senators appeared to go along with the emerging draft constitutional amendment bill. But out of the blue, on 9 February the PPP struck again. Party deputy leader MP Paiboon Nittitawan and Senator Somchai Sawaengkan – two fanatic defenders of the 2017Constitution – succeeded in calling for parliamentary approval to submit a request to the Constitutional Court to see whether what the parliamentarians were seeking to do was constitutional.

A SPANNER IN THE WORKS FROM THE COURT

On 11 March, just one week before the pending constitutional amendment bill was due for its final reading, the Constitutional Court literally threw a spanner into the works. Its ruling could be summarised as follows.

  • Parliamentarians do have the authority to amend the 2017 Constitution.
  • But what they were going to do, including the formation of a constitution drafting assembly, would be tantamount to abolishing the current constitution. Before they went that far, voters must be consulted in a national referendum to determine whether a majority of them would like to have a new constitution.
  • In addition, a new draft constitution prepared by the proposed constitution drafting assembly must also be subject to a national referendum.[12]

The court’s ruling raised more questions than answers. What was to be done about the pending constitutional amendment bill? Was the ongoing amendment to Section 256 not within the authority of parliamentarians? If it was, then could a national referendum be held after the final passage of the pending bill?

On 17 March, 43 MPs and senators took nearly 14 hours debating the court’s ruling. The battle lines were drawn clearly. Senators wanted to abandon the pending bill; they did not want to vote on its final reading for fear of offending the Constitutional Court. The Democrat Party — with support of the Bhumjaithai Party and another small government party, Chat Thai Phattana — proposed returning to the court for a clarification of its 11 March ruling.

The opposition parties, on the other hand, pushed for a vote on the pending bill – in order to let the whole Thai nation see who actually supported amending the 2017 Constitution, and who was “lying”.

House Speaker Chuan Leekpai, who chaired the joint parliamentary session on the evening of 17 March, was unsure about what should be done. He played safe by asking the meeting to vote on each of the three proposed courses of action: that proposed by the senators, that proposed by government parties, and that proposed by the opposition.

Before any new decision could be made, PPP deputy leader Paiboon surprised many parliamentarians with a proposed motion to vote on the pending constitutional amendment bill — much to the chagrin of the Bhumjaithai and the Democrat Parties, which were counting on buying more time with a new request for the Constitutional Court to elaborate on its ruling.

Both the Bhumjaithai and the Democrat Parties tried but failed to save the pending bill, which incorporated significant compromises that could improve the constitution. To that end, the Bhumjaithai Party was even prepared to set aside consideration of the pending bill in favour of holding a national referendum on the creation of a constitution drafting assembly first.

Bhumjaithai deputy leader Chada Thaised denounced as “nonsense” the alleged self-centred ploy to thwart the constitutional amendment on the part of the PPP. He led his party’s MPs in a protest walk-out, because he did not wish to work with “liars” who had a “hidden sword [hidden agenda]”.[13] The subsequent voting on the constitutional amendment bill produced the predictable outcome shown in the table below.

LET THE VOTERS DECIDE

Parliamentarians’ attention now has temporarily turned to the draft national referendum bill. After Parliament ran out of time to work on this legislation on 18 March, an extraordinary parliamentary session on 7-8 April also failed to finish the second reading of the bill. Parliamentarians will have to continue working on the draft when they meet again in May.

The law is needed to support new constitutional amendments that require the consent of a majority of voters. In addition, the cabinet will be empowered to call a national referendum when it is deemed necessary.

Once the national referendum law is in place, General Prayut and his cabinet will have an opportunity to redeem themselves. They can organise a national referendum to let voters decide on two points: whether they want a new constitution, and whether they want the formation of an elected constitution drafting assembly.

Such a national referendum can be held on the same day as the elections for the sub-district of tambon councils in the 76 provinces, not including Bangkok. The tambon elections are expected to take place in late June, about three months after the provincial municipal councils election of 28 March. Voters in Bangkok can vote on the referendum on the same day as their compatriots in the provinces vote on both the referendum and in tambon elections. This would save a lot of money. Holding a stand-alone national referendum would cost much more.

Most of the opposition parties, other than the Move Forward Party, have agreed with the ruling coalition that the existing Chapters 1 and 2 of the 2017 Constitution be left unchanged. Chapter 1 contains general provisions including those specifying that “Thailand is one and indivisible kingdom.” and “Thailand adopts a democratic regime of government with the king as head of state.” Chapter 2 contains provisions concerning the king, starting with that reading, “The king shall be enthroned in a position of revered worship and shall not be violated.”[14]

The Move Forward Party believes that every chapter in the 2017 Constitution can be improved to keep the document up to date and relevant to the rapidly developing Thai constitutional monarchy. The leaders of recent protests have been more direct; they want to ensure that the king reigns under the constitution, and not be above it.

NEW BATTLE LINES DRAWN

Even now, new battle lines for the next fight on the constitutional amendment are being drawn. Opposition parties are determined to propose new bills on revising a few crucial individual sections of the 2017 Constitution when Parliament reconvenes in ordinary session in May. They pushed for the vote on the previous constitutional amendment bill, even though they knew it would be defeated, because they wanted to “expose” those who were conspiring to block changes to the charter.

The Bhumjaithai (61 MPs), the Democrat (51), and the Chat Thai Phatthana (12) Parties  — all members of the ruling coalition — also want to submit their joint constitutional amendment proposals. With their combined strength of 124 MPs, the three like-minded government parties have enough votes to submit the proposals without relying on support from the PPP. Sponsoring a constitutional amendment bill requires the support of at least one-fifth of the existing number of MPs — currently, that would mean 98 MPs.

On its part, the PPP with 121 MPs is once again working with some senators to pre-empt any significant change to the 2017 Constitution. MP Paiboon has already announced the PPP’s basic game plan: go for uncontroversial amendments that do not require a national referendum, but avoid touching Section 256 — especially the part concerning the ground rules for constitutional amendment.[15] This approach should suit most senators, who want to continue playing an important political and governmental role until the end of their non-renewable five-year term in mid-2024.

CONCLUSION

Organising a national referendum to let voters decide on whether they want to improve the constitution, and if so how, is the best and most feasible solution for Thailand.

Without new and proactive steps on the part of General Prayut, the fading dream of amending the 2017 Constitution will soon turn into an even worse nightmare. His excuse of having “no control” over the senators must be taken with a pinch of salt. It was not a miraculous coincidence that 249 of the 250 senators voted him into the premiership in June 2019.

Prolonging the deadlock could force the three unhappy government parties to re-examine the rationale for staying with the PPP in the ruling coalition. The political cost that they incur in shoring up General Prayut’s premiership is growing, and they are increasingly concerned that their supporters will turn against them in the next general election, for failing to fulfil their 2019 campaign promises to amend the 2017 Constitution.

If the Bhumjaithai, Democrat and Chat Thai Phatthana Parties just quit, the ruling coalition will lose its majority control in the House. General Prayut will have either to resign, or dissolve the House and call an early general election.

Failure to keep his word on amending the 2017 Constitution and on restoring peace and security is eroding General Prayut’s legitimacy. Such a critical political impasse will anger more Thais and send them to the streets to join the youth-led protests. More violence will then be inevitable. Thailand and its people deserve a much better constitution and a brighter political future than this sorry status quo of unending deceit and divisiveness.

ISEAS Perspective 2021/47, 19 April 2021


ENDNOTES

[1] All but one of the 250 senators — the exception being Senate President Dr Pornpetch Vichitcholachai, who abstained — and 251 government MPs voted for General Prayut, enabling him to win the premiership on 5 June 2019 with 500 votes in the Parliament. He edged out the opposition’s nominee Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, leader of the Future Forward Party, who could garner only 244 votes from seven opposition parties. Section 272 of the 2017 Constitution provides for the participation of the 250 senators in the selection of a new prime minister during the first five years after it took effect. The military regime set up after the coup in May 2014, the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) headed by General Prayut, supervised the drafting of the charter. A search committee headed by General Prawit Wongsuwan, a leading figure in the coup, handpicked 194 of the 250 senators. Fifty others were chosen by representatives of various professions. Six more would join the Senate in their ex-officio capacities as the Defence Ministry Permanent Secretary, the Commander of the Armed Forces, the Army Commander, the Navy Commander, the Air Force Commander and the Police Commander.

[2] “คำแถลงนโยบายของคณะรัฐมนตรี“ [The Cabinet’s policy statement] at the Government House website (www.thaigov.go.th/uploads/document/66/2019/10/pdf/Doc_20190725085640000000.pdf, accessed 19 March 2021), p. 33.

[3] Under the electoral system based on the 2017 Constitution, the party scoring the biggest victory does not take all or gain more House seats than it “deserves”. The Phuea Thai Party, which won in 137 (single seat) constituencies, did not therefore get any share of the 150 party-list seats. The party’s candidates collected altogether 7.92 million votes, or about 22.3 per cent of the total votes won by all parties. Consequently, the party “deserved” to have only 111 MPs (22.3 per cent) in the 500-member House. Since it had already won 137 seats in constituency races, it did not “deserve” any additional House seats from the allocation of the 150 party-list seats. On the other hand, the Phalang Pracharat Party won 8.433 million votes, or 23.7 per cent of the total votes cast, but it won only 97 constituency seats. Therefore it was given 21 party-list seats to make a total of 118, which is about 23.7 per cent of the 500 seats in the House. If the allocation of the party-list seats were to be carried out under normal proportional allocation, the Phuea Thai Party would have been given another 33 party-list seats (22.3 per cent of the 150 party-list seats) to make a total of 170 MPs. The Phalang Pracharat Party would have received 36 party-list seats (23.7 per cent of 150) to make a total of 133 MPs. The party that benefited most from the system turned out to be the Future Forward Party, the predecessor of the Move Forward Party. The two-year-old party won only 30 constituency seats, but it collected the third largest number of votes at nearly 6.266 million or 17.63 per cent of the total. The party was thus allocated 57 party-list seats – the largest share – to make for a total of 87 seats in the House, in which it “deserved” to be the third largest party.

[4] “แถลงการณ์นายกรัฐมนตรี วันที่ 13 สิงหาคม 2563“ [Prime minister’s announcement of 13 August 2020] (www.youtube.com/watch9v=q9ynyJrB8PA, accessed 20 March 2021).

[5] The NCPO-appointed National Assembly on 6 September 2015 rejected with a vote of 135 to 105 a draft constitution from the committee headed by Dr Borwornsak Uwanno, an independent and respected law professor on the faculty of Chulalongkorn University. The NCPO set up a new drafting committee headed by Dr Meechai Ruchuphan, one of Thailand’s most experienced jurists and the only civilian on the NCPO. The Meechai draft constitution was subsequently accepted by the National Assembly. It was endorsed in a national referendum held on 7 August 2016, with 16.820 million votes — or about 61.35 per cent of the total — in its favour. Also endorsed with 15.132 million votes or 58.07 per cent of the total was the supplementary question concerning the draft Transitory Provisions. The latter included the appointment of 250 senators with significant roles, such as participation in the selection of the prime minister in the first five years following the new charter’s promulgation. The referendum was, however, hardly free or fair. Critics were either arrested or harassed. Many of those who voted for the Meechai draft constitution were misled by the NCPO to believe that an elected government could soon amend and improve the charter.

[6] “ผู้นำฝ่ายค้าน จี้ ประยุทธ์ – วิษณุ รับผิดชอบ หลังแก้ รธน แท้ง ทวงเคยรับปากไว้“ [Opposition Leader holds Prayut and Wissanu responsible after aborted constitutional amendment process, reminding them of their promise], Khaosod Online, 18 March 2021 (www.khaosod.co.th/politics/news_6154843, accessed 21 March 2021).

[7] “ วิษณุ เผยแก้ รธน. กำลังหารืออยู่ ‘ผมทำอะไรถึงต้องรับผิดชอบ’ ” [ Wissanu says constitutional amendment is under discussion, [and he asks] “What have I done to be held responsible?”], Manager Online, 19 March 2021 ( www.mgronline.com/politics/detail/9640000026481, accessed 21 March 2021).

[8] “ป้อง 250 ส.ว. มีเกียรติ ‘บิ๊กตู่’ ปัดล็อบบี้ยื้อแก้รัฐธรรมนูญ“ [ Defending the 250 senators as honourable, PM dismisses allegation that he is lobbying for a delay in constitutional amendment ], Thai Rath Online, 26 September 2020 ( www.thairath.co.th/news/politic/1937750, accessed 21 March 2021).

[9] Naowarat Pongpaiboon, a renowned poet, and Pisan Manwapat, a retired ambassador, voted for the bill.

[10] See details of six of the seven bills at Termsak Chalermpalanupap, “Constitutional Amendment Stalled: Thailand’s New Normal Politics Deadlocked”, ISEAS Perspective No. 2020/114, 12 October 2020 (www. /wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ISEAS_Perspective_2020_114.pdf, accessed 22 March 2021), notes 1 and 4.

[11] iLaw is a Bangkok-based civil society organisation engaged in promoting knowledge of and public interest in the constitution and legal issues, as well as freedom of expression and human rights in Thailand. It organised a petition in August-September 2020 and collected 100,730 Thai voters’ signatures backing a bill on the “people’s draft constitution”. A public proposal to amend the 2017 Constitution needs the endorsement of only 50,000 voters.

[12] See the full text of the Constitutional Court’s ruling at https://www.constitutionalcourt.or.th/occ_web/download/article/article_202103151 , (accessed 22 March 2021).

[13] “ ‘ชาดา‘ แจงยิบเหตุนำ ‘ภท.’ วอล์คเอาท์ ฉะ ‘พปชร.’ ซ่อนดาบ! ” [“Chada” explains why he led “Bhumjaithai” walkout, accusing “Phalang Pracharat” of having hidden sword],Thai Post, 17 March 2021 ( www.thaipost.net/main/detail/96421, accessed 22 March 2021).

[14] See English translation of the 2017 Constitution prepared by the Office of the Council of State at www.constitutionalcourt.or.th/occ_en/download/article_201704173022.pdf (accessed 22 March 2021).

[15] “ ไพบูลย์ เล็งหารือ สว.- พท. เตรียมแก้ รธน. รายมาตรา แต่ไม่แตะ ม. 256” [Paiboon to consult senators and the Phuea Thai Party on amending individual sections of the constitution, but without touching Section 256]. Naew Na Online, 20 March 2021 (www.naewna.com/politic/560656, accessed 22 March 2021).

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2021/46 “Malaysia-US Relations and the Biden Administration: Mapping Excitement, Managing Expectations” by Kuik Cheng-Chwee, Abdul Razak Ahmad, and Khor Swee Kheng

 

The election of Joe Biden as the 46th President of the United States has been greeted with much fanfare by political and policy elites, business groups, and the general public in Malaysia. Expectations must however be managed. In this picture, Joe Biden and Jill Biden arrive to Biden’s inauguration on the West Front of the U.S. Capitol on January 20, 2021, in Washington, DC. Photo: Win McNamee, Getty Images via AFP.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Malaysia, like many other countries in Southeast Asia and elsewhere, is enthusiastic that “America is back”, primarily because the Biden administration is perceived to be more credible, projects more confidence, and promises more room for collaboration on key issues.
  • However, collaboration between Malaysia and the United States is likely to be constrained by competing priorities and persistent gaps on multiple fronts.
  • These include the gaps between the Biden administration’s domestic priorities and external aspirations, the risks of entrapment surrounding the growing US-China rivalry, Washington’s episodic attention to Southeast Asia, as well as the recurring problems on governance and economic issues at the bilateral level.
  • Hence, expectations must be managed as Malaysia and the United States seek to expand their partnership, explore greater cooperation on such converging interests as public health and maritime issues, while strengthening already institutionalised links in the economic and security realms.

* Kuik Cheng-Chwee is Associate Professor and Head of Centre for Asian Studies, IKMAS, National University of Malaysia (UKM). Abdul Razak Ahmad is the founding director of Bait Al Amanah, and concurrently a member of the Board of Director, the University of Nottingham in Malaysia. Khor Swee Kheng is a Visiting Fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia and a Senior Visiting Fellow at the UN University International Institute for Global Health. The authors thank Izyan Hay for excellent research support.

INTRODUCTION

The election of Joe Biden as the 46th President of the United States has been greeted with much fanfare by political and policy elites, business groups, and the general public in Malaysia. While some are more enthusiastic than others, the prevailing mood in Malaysia is that Biden’s election is good news for the region and the world. This positive response is evident in social media as well as in statements by leaders and officials. It is also clearly reflected in the State of Southeast Asia: 2021 Survey Report by the ASEAN Studies Centre, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. According to the report, as many as 71.7 percent of Malaysian respondents believe the level of US engagement with Southeast Asia under the new Biden administration will “increase” or “increase significantly”; and 55.5 percent express “some confidence” and “full confidence” the US will be a reliable strategic partner and provider of regional security.[1]     

Malaysia’s relations with the United States have been longstanding, robust and institutionalised.[2] Despite Malaysia not being a treaty ally of the US and despite political rifts during Mahathir Mohamad’s first premiership (1981-2003), bilateral relations have been resilient, especially in economics, defence and people-to-people connectivity.[3] The United States has been one of Malaysia’s top trading, investing and security partners for decades.[4] Bilateral ties, enhanced during the Najib Razak years (2009-2018), were elevated to a Comprehensive Partnership in 2014.[5] Political relations were stable but lukewarm during Mahathir’s second administration (2018-2020), which overlapped with the second half of the Donald Trump presidency. Mahathir, who returned to power in May 2018, publicly described Trump as “unpredictable”,[6] criticised the Trump administration’s proposed Israel-Palestine peace deal as “grossly unjust”,[7] and urged President Trump to resign “to save America”.[8]

Biden’s victory has raised hopes for further strengthening of the Malaysia-US partnership and for new areas of collaboration, as both countries and others in the international community continue to battle COVID-19 and work towards economic recovery amid global uncertainty. 

MAPPING EXCITEMENT

On 8 November 2020, Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin congratulated Biden on the latter’s victory in the US presidential election, describing it as “historic”. He was among the first leaders to do so after the major news networks declared Biden the winner, but before the electoral college had confirmed the outcome of the election. Muhyiddin – whose Perikatan Nasional (PN)-Plus coalition replaced the Mahathir-led Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition as the federal government on 1 March 2020 – stated that the US-Malaysia Comprehensive Partnership “continues to be an overarching framework for pro-active, multifaceted and mutually beneficial collaboration between [the] two countries”, and that “Malaysia looks forward to strengthening further its partnership with the US under Biden’s leadership”.[9]

This excitement is in part rooted in shared political values: a belief in the resilience of democracy and its capacity to respond to and address problems. Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim hailed Biden’s victory as “a win over racism and one for human rights.”[10] Communications and Multimedia Minister Saifuddin Abdullah said the triumph of Biden and Harris “represent a combination of strengths within a democracy that is still working, albeit its weaknesses and critics.”[11]

In multi-ethnic, middle-income Malaysia, enthusiasm for the Biden-Harris victory is also about cherishing multiculturalism and women empowerment. As observed by Mustafa Anuar of Aliran, Kamala Harris’ success “in breaking the glass ceiling in American politics was celebrated the world over, especially by people who cherish the remarkable advancement of women and minorities in important areas of life.”[12] This observation is shared among ethnic minorities and women advocates in Malaysia.

The major reason for Malaysians’ exhilaration, however, lies in the prospect of policy change after four years of Trump’s unpredictability and an “America First” agenda.[13] Many welcomed Biden’s pledges in re-emphasizing multilateralism and partnerships, while reversing Trump’s controversial policies, particularly those on the environment, health, immigration and in relation to the Muslim world. These pledges became reality after Biden was sworn in in January 2021. America re-joined the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organization and reset its relations with allies, partners, and the rest of the world.

Biden’s lifting of the Trump administration’s “Muslim travel ban” – which prohibited individuals from certain Muslim countries from entering the United States – on his first day in office is symbolically important and was lauded by Malaysians, in particular the Malay Muslim majority. Biden’s intention to restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme, resume contact with Palestinian leaders, and restore aid to Palestinians are seen as important steps in restoring trust between America and Muslim countries, which had been diminished by the Islamophobic rhetoric and actions of the Trump administration.

Malaysian policy analysts and experts are optimistic on different grounds. Focusing on Biden’s credibility and his renewed commitment to multilateralism and free trade, Malaysian observers and commentators are hopeful that American global leadership and regional activism will be revived. Prospects of a more credible bilateral diplomacy can in turn help cultivate mutually beneficial relations, enhance regional prosperity and stability, and strengthen the role of ASEAN-based institutions in regional affairs. CIMB ASEAN Research Institute chairman Munir Majid, for instance, opines that “Biden would bring a more civilised style and a less strident tone in the conduct of foreign policy”, and is likely to engage better with Malaysia and ASEAN in contrast to Trump’s protectionist, neo-isolationist approach.[14]

Other analysts like Oh Ei Sun concur, adding that the Biden win “mean[s] a less transactional, more predictable America which once again embraces multilateralism and free trade,” and that these are “of special interest to Malaysia and many other Southeast Asian countries for which renewed trade with and investment from America are important for their economic development.”[15] Munir, however, cautions that the Biden team has “a lot of ground to make up” after the Trump years and in light of China’s rise; hence, it may not be “America is back” but “America is beginning to come back”.[16]

On strategic and security fronts, confidence in the Biden administration is high, as reflected in the ISEAS survey. A more engaged and proactive America may help broaden Southeast Asian countries’ external options. Thomas Daniel, a fellow at ISIS Malaysia, observes that the new US administration is likely to consult more with ASEAN and Southeast Asian claimant states in the South China Sea disputes. This is welcome as US-elevated engagement with regional countries on and across multilateral platforms and mechanisms as a constructive player is expected to “provide practical options and avenues for cooperation”, so long as US revitalised partnerships are “not for the purpose of containing China”.[17]

MIND THE GAPS

The excitement and expectations notwithstanding, we should not lose sight of several enduring gaps and competing prioritisations that will limit how the optimism will be translated into desired outcomes.

First, there are gaps between the Biden administration’s domestic priorities and external aspirations. Despite Team Biden’s pledge to restore and reinvent US leadership, a wide range of domestic problems and crises are likely to consume much of the new administration’s energies. Fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, domestic economic recovery, battling domestic extremism and other domestic issues top the list.

Domestic preoccupations have external ramifications. Take for instance the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the trade deal promoted by US President Barack Obama. In 2017, Trump withdrew from the TPP, which was later renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Despite the Biden administration’s intention to join the CPTPP, this is a hard sell because the idea of further trade liberalisation is highly unpopular and hence politically risky in post-Trump America.[18] This domestic hurdle is likely to prevail over the US’s external aspirations and expectations. This is true even in the wake of the November 2020 signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) by the ten ASEAN states, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. The RCEP, the world’s largest free trade agreement by population, is an ASEAN-led initiative without the involvement of the United States.

These domestic challenges not only limit US ability to pursue its external aspirations and meet its partners’ expectations, they also constrain its ability to lead the world by “the power of example”, as proclaimed by Biden in his Inauguration speech. The 6 January 2021 assault on the US Capitol shattered America’s credibility as a champion of democracy. The country’s deeply divisive politics, racism, politics of misinformation and inept pandemic response have eroded the global appeal of the United States. Many of these problems will endure beyond Trump, with unintended consequences externally. Richard Haas, the President of the Council on Foreign Relations, observes that “US allies understandably fear that in four years, Americans could return to Trumpism, if not the man himself. The fear that Trump was not an aberration, but rather reflected what the United States has become, undermines US influence.”[19]

The second gap has to do with the systemic dynamics underpinning US-China rivalry. The more the big powers slide into sharper competition and escalating tension, the smaller states such as Malaysia will be fearful of being entrapped into conflicts against their will.[20] Given the bipartisan consensus in the United States on dealing with China, the competitive elements of Trump’s China policy will remain during the Biden Administration. During his confirmation hearing, the incoming US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken said that Trump “was right in taking a tougher approach to China”, even though he disagrees “very much with the way that he [Trump] went about it in a number of areas”.[21] President Biden separately said in an interview that China is in for “extreme competition” from the United States under his administration, although he also emphasised that Washington and Beijing “need not have a conflict”.[22]

In short, while America’s China policy under Biden will involve different approaches and means, its strategic ends remain the same. This approach was articulated clearly by Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi, respectively the Indo-Pacific Coordinator and Senior China Director at the National Security Council, in their January 2021 Foreign Affairs essay on addressing the China challenge while restoring the balance of power and legitimate order in Asia.[23]

These dynamics present Malaysia and smaller countries in the region with opportunities and challenges. While the majority of regional states want to leverage a more predictable Washington to constrain China and believe that the United States under Biden “will do the right thing”, they are deeply concerned about the risks of becoming the arena for and proxies of major power competition.[24] This ambivalence is well reflected in Malaysia’s attitudes towards the increased freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) and overflight operations by the United States in the contested waters of the South China Sea. The growing US-China animosity has led Malaysia to view the South China Sea imbroglio not just as a territorial issue but more a matter of big power rivalry.[25] Increased US engagement in Southeast Asia is welcome but increased US presence subsumed under US-China rivalry is not. Malaysia, like other ASEAN countries, wants Washington to view Southeast Asia in its own right, not as a tool, location or avenue for big power competition.

Finally, there are structural gaps within the United States’ Asia policy. While Washington under Biden will attach more importance to Asia as a whole, it will continue to pay more attention to Northeast Asia than Southeast Asia. Biden’s first foreign policy speech as President on 4 February 2021 mentioned neither ASEAN nor Southeast Asia.[26] This is neither new nor surprising. For the US foreign policy establishment, Northeast Asia has always been and will continue to be more important than Southeast Asia.

This is not only because of big power politics (US-China relations), but also due to the presence of more important treaty allies (Japan and South Korea) and potential regional hotspots (Taiwan and North Korea). Southeast Asia, by comparison, is often “off the radar screen” in Washington, DC.[27] Scholars have long described Washington’s episodic attention to Southeast Asia as “benign neglect” or “systemic neglect” typical of asymmetric power relations.[28]

As a relatively stable region post-Indochina conflicts, Southeast Asia does not require persistent or profound attention from the US foreign policy establishment. While the relative neglect is benign, in the current context of power rivalry and regional transformation, the consequences of this neglect may not be entirely so. In the eyes of Malaysia and other smaller states, episodic and fluctuating attention raises questions about the sustainability and reliability of the US security commitment, leading them to question the viability of the United States as a “resident power” in Asia.

This is especially so when the smaller states see a recurring problem: Washington often does not see Southeast Asia in its own right, but as a means to the US’ prioritised ends (for example, the global war on terror in the 2000s, and the China challenge since the 2010s). There are interests beyond the US-China conflict in Malaysia-US and Southeast Asia-US relations which must be pursued on equal, mutually beneficial and sustainable grounds.

MANAGING EXPECTATIONS

We should not have unrealistic expectations that Malaysia-US relations will be dramatically improved or that the systemic ambivalence and benign neglect will disappear during the Biden era. Washington will naturally attach different degrees of importance to different countries, depending on their value to US interests. Malaysia’s value stems from its strategic location, its time-honoured defence and security partnership with America, its claimant country status in the South China Sea, its role as a key ASEAN member state, and its identity as a progressive Muslim-majority nation.

These attributes underpin the prospects and potential of bilateral cooperation in the Biden era. On 15 February 2021, when the Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in Kuala Lumpur paid a courtesy visit to Wisma Putra (Malaysia’s foreign ministry), both sides agreed to strengthen the cooperative partnership between Malaysia and the United States “through multi-level engagements” in the post-pandemic era.[29]

Bilaterally, during the Biden era, Malaysia and the United States are expected to enhance their Comprehensive Partnership on such fronts as: (a) trade and investment; (b) defence and security (military training and exercises, counter-terrorism, counter-narratives, maritime security, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, etc.); and (c) people-to-people (education, tourism, etc.).[30] They are also likely to forge collaboration on areas where both sides enjoy converging interests and/or complementary advantages, for example, public health, border security, digital connectivity and supply chain restructuring, and sustainable development, green technology, and capacity-building.

More specifically, vaccines are a potential area of bilateral public health cooperation founded on the mutual interest of Malaysia and the United States. Malaysia has purchased the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine as the largest part of its vaccine portfolio. As of February 2021, Malaysia is deploying the largest absolute number of doses of the Pfizer vaccine in Southeast Asia. Most other countries are relying on the Sinovac vaccine, like Thailand, Indonesia and The Philippines. Although Singapore is deploying the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, their absolute number of doses will be lower due to a smaller population.

This provides Malaysia with a reasonable basis to negotiate for technology transfers and domestic production of the Pfizer vaccine, for domestic, regional or global markets. The Biden Administration may welcome such a move, as it supports global health security and their own vaccine and health diplomacy efforts on top of the financial rewards. However, Malaysia’s prior decision in 2017 to compulsorily license sofosbuvir[31] (a Hepatitis C drug made by Gilead, an American pharmaceutical) may complicate the legal and patent negotiations, but this is surmountable given the different disease, product and market characteristics.

Washington’s renewed commitment to partnerships and multilateralism enables stronger Malaysia-US collaboration at bilateral and regional levels. When Muhyiddin visited the United States in September 2019 as Minister of Home Affairs,[32] he emphasised the need to safeguard peace and stability in Southeast Asia, and envisaged Malaysia as “a linchpin nation” with the primary role of bridging the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions, while building partnerships with countries in the two regions to spur economic growth as well as binding these nations through institutions that promote shared security, shared prosperity and shared identity. He added: “These three inextricably related linchpin roles of bridging, building, and binding the two oceanic regions require Malaysia to initiate and strengthen genuine cooperation with multiple countries, including the US.”[33]

Despite the increased prospect of a multi-level partnership between Malaysia and the United States, we should expect some recurring problems on such governance and economic issues as labour rights, environment, freedom of expression and migration.[34] In a meeting with the Deputy Chief of Mission of the US Embassy in Kuala Lumpur in February 2021, a senior UMNO leader brought up the US ban on Malaysian palm oil imports, describing the ban as “unnecessary and could be detrimental in various aspects”.[35]

In the same month, the US Embassy expressed concerns about the Malaysian Federal Court’s decision that the news portal Malaysiakini was in contempt of court and liable to a fine of RM500,000, noting that the decision will have impact “on press freedom in Malaysia” and stressing that “freedom of expression, including for members of the press and the general public, is fundamental for public discourse and the democratic principles that support accountability and good governance.”[36] The embassy also voiced concerns about Malaysian authorities’ decision to deport 1,200 Myanmar nationals in February 2021, warning that the move “could put deportees’ lives at risk” in light of the military coup in Myanmar.[37]     

CONCLUSION

Looking ahead, the major challenge facing Malaysia-US relations – and for that matter, Malaysia’s overall foreign policy – is in fact Malaysia’s domestic political uncertainty. If Malaysia fails to get its house in order, all the opportunities and possibilities will be missed.

Even worse, risks and dangers might be misjudged and issues mis-prioritised. Strategically and functionally, concrete inter-governmental collaboration with the United States and other countries remains on a “wait-and-see” basis as foreign countries observe and wait for the formation of a stable federal government in Putrajaya. Missed opportunities, misjudged risks, and mis-prioritised issues are therefore matters of acute importance, especially at this juncture of unprecedented global transformation, as other countries compete to strategise and reinvent themselves to rebuild in the post-pandemic era.    

ISEAS Perspective 2021/46, 16 April 2021


ENDNOTES

[1] Sharon Seah, et al., The State of Southeast Asia: 2021 (Singapore: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute), /wp-content/uploads/2021/01/The-State-of-SEA-2021-v2.pdf.

[2] Pamela Sodhy, The US-Malaysian Nexus: Themes in Superpower-Small State Relations (Kuala Lumpur: Institute of Strategic and International Studies, 1982); Zakaria Haji Ahmad, “Malaysian Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics: Looking Outward and Moving Inward?”, in Robert A. Scalapino et al. (Eds.), Asia and the Major Powers: Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy (Berkeley, CA: Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, 1990), pp. 256-279; Kuik Cheng-Chwee, “Malaysia’s US Policy Under Najib: Structural and Domestic Sources of a Small State’s Strategy”, Asian Security, Vol. 9, No. 3, 2013, pp. 143-164; Elina Noor and T. N. Qistina. “Great Power Rivalries, Domestic Politics and Malaysian Foreign Policy”, Asian Security, Vol. 13, No. 3, 2017, pp. 200-219. 

[3] Chandran Jeshurun, Malaysia: Fifty Years of Diplomacy, 1957-2007 (Kuala Lumpur: The Other Press, 2007); Johan Saravanamuttu, Malaysia’s Foreign Policy: The First Fifty Years: Alignment, Neutralism, Islamism, (Singapore: ISEAS Publishing, 2010); J.N. Mak, “Malaysian Defense and Security Cooperation: Coming Out of the Closet”, in Tan See Seng and Amitav Acharya, eds., Asia-Pacific Security Cooperation (London: Routledge 2014), pp. 122-149; Elina Noor, “Foreign and Security Policy in the New Malaysia”, The Lowy Institute, 7 November 2019, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/foreign-and-security-policy-new-malaysia.

[4] The Malaysia-US defence partnership is longstanding and comprehensive. Bilateral defence ties were institutionalised in 1984 through the establishment of the Bilateral Training and Consultative Group (BITACG) to coordinate military activities between the two countries, which included training, courses, and military exercises. These defence ties were further institutionalised in 1994 through the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA), which was renewed in 2005. The partnership was brought to a higher level in 2008, when the two countries established a strategic consultation forum, the Malaysia-US Strategic Talks (MUSST). See Malaysian Ministry of Defence, Defence White Paper (Kuala Lumpur: Ministry of Defence, 2020); see also Kuik Cheng‐Chwee. “Malaysia Between the United States and China: What do Weaker States Hedge Against?”, Asian Politics & Policy, Vol. 8, No. 1, 2016, pp. 155-177.

[5] Kuik, “Malaysia’s US Policy Under Najib”.

[6] “I don’t care if Trump skips Asean summit, says Dr M”, Free Malaysia Today, 13 November 2018, https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2018/11/13/i-dont-care-if-trump-skips-asean-summit-says-dr-m/.

[7] Yantoultra Ngui, “Malaysia’s Mahathir Says Trump’s Middle East Plan Unacceptable”, Bloomberg, 8 February 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-08/malaysia-s-mahathir-says-trump-s-deal-of-century-unacceptable.

[8] Mazwin Nik Anis, “Dr M: I asked Trump to resign to ‘save America’“, The Star, 10 February 2020, https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/02/10/dr-m-i-asked-trump-to-resign-to-039save-america039.

[9] Zakiah Koya, “Muhyiddin congratulates Biden on his victory, says he hopes to meet him”, The Star, 8 November 2020,  https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/11/08/muhyiddin-congratulates-biden-on-his-victory-says-he-hopes-to-meet-him.

[10] Anwar Ibrahim, Twitter, 8 November 2020, https://twitter.com/anwaribrahim/status/1325261884619042816?s=20 

[11] Zakiah Koya, “Saifuddin Abdullah: Harris as US VP-elect a win for empowerment of women”, The Star, 8 November 2020, https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/11/08/saifuddin-abdullah-harris-as-us-vp-elect-a-win-for-women-empowerment

[12] Mustafa K. Anuar, “Something about Kamala Harris in Malaysia”, Aliran, 1 December 2020, https://aliran.com/web-specials/something-about-kamala-harris-in-malaysia/.

[13] Malaysia is not alone on this. See Malcolm Cook and Ian Storey, “The Impending Biden Presidency and Southeast Asia”, ISEAS Perspective #143/2020, 16 December 2020.

[14] Ayisy Yusof, “Experts hopeful of US re-engagement with Apec on trade agreements”, New Straits Times, 16 November 2020,  https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/11/641544/experts-hopeful-us-re-engagement-apec-trade-agreements.

[15] Nadirah H. Rodzi, “Malaysian PM Muhyiddin Yassin congratulates Joe Biden on US election victory”, The Straits Times, 8 November 2020,  https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/malaysian-pm-muhyiddin-yassin-congratulates-joe-biden-on-us-election-victory.

[16] Ayisy Yusof, “Experts hopeful of US re-engagement with Apec on trade agreements”, New Straits Times, 16 November 2020,  https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/11/641544/experts-hopeful-us-re-engagement-apec-trade-agreements.

[17] “Malaysia-US ties expected to remain strong under Biden’s administration – Analyst”, The Malaysian Reserve, 17 February 2021, https://themalaysianreserve.com/2021/02/17/malaysia-us-ties-expected-to-remain-strong-under-bidens-administration-analyst/.

[18] Weizhen Tan, “It’s a ‘hard sell’ if Biden administration wants to rejoin massive trans-Pacific trade deal, says analyst”, CNBC, 11 January 2021, https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/11/control-risks-on-biden-administration-rejoining-tpp-trade-deal.html.

[19] Richard Haas, “Whither US Foreign Policy?”, Project Syndicate, 8 February 2021, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-foreign-policy-under-biden-by-richard-haass-2021-02.

[20] Kuik Cheng Chwee, “Hedging in Post-Pandemic Asia: What, How, and Why?”, The Asan Forum, 6 June 2020, http://www.theasanforum.org/hedging-in-post-pandemic-asia-what-how-and-why/  

[21] Antony Blinken, Confirmation Hearing as US Secretary of State, 19 January 2021.

[22] “Biden: China should expect `extreme competition’ from US”, Associate Press, 8 February 2021, https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-xi-jinping-china-8f5158c12eed14e002bb1c094f3a048a.

[23] Kurt M. Campbell and Rush Doshi, “How America Can Shore Up Asian Order”, Foreign Affairs, 12 January 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-01-12/how-america-can-shore-asian-order.

[24] Seah, The State of Southeast Asia: 2021.

[25] Yew Meng Lai and Cheng-Chwee Kuik. “Structural Sources of Malaysia’s South China Sea Policy: Power Uncertainties and Small-state Hedging”, Australian Journal of International Affairs , 2020, DOI:10.1080/10357718.2020.1856329; Malaysian Ministry of Defence, Defence White Paper.

[26] The only Southeast Asian country mentioned in the speech was Burma (the word “Myanmar” was avoided), because of February 1 coup. See “Remarks by President Biden on America’s Place in the World”, The White House Briefing Room, 4 February 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/02/04/remarks-by-president-biden-on-americas-place-in-the-world/.

[27] Karl Jackson, “Southeast Asia: Off the Radar Screen?” SAISHERE (Washington, DC: School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University), 2004.

[28] Diane K. Mauzy and Brian L. Job, “US Policy in Southeast Asia: Limited Re-engagement after Years of Benign Neglect”, Asian Survey, Vol. 47, No. 4, 2007, p. 622-641; Alice Ba, “Systemic Neglect”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 31, No. 3, 2009, pp. 369-398; Joseph Liow, Ambivalence Engagement: The United States and Regional Security in Southeast Asia (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2017).

[29] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Malaysia, Facebook, https://www.facebook.com/MOFAMalaysia.

[30] All three areas were stressed by the new US ambassador Brian McFeeters in a statement made upon his arrival on 27 February 2021. See https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2021/02/669499/new-us-ambassador-mcfeeters-arrives-malaysia

[31] https://msfaccess.org/malaysias-compulsory-license-sofosbuvir-positive-step-public-health-and-innovation, accessed 23 Feb 2021.

[32] Muhyiddin spoke at a closed-door session at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.

[33] “Muhyiddin: US, China owe global responsibility to end trade dispute”, Malay Mail, 17 September 2019, https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2019/09/17/muhyiddin-us-china-owe-global-responsibility-to-end-trade-dispute/1791276. These themes are elaborated in Malaysia’s Defence White Paper, pp. 17-18, 28-31.

[34] “Malaysian rubber gloves added to US list of goods produced by forced labour”, Reuters, 15 October 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-glove-usa/malaysian-rubber-gloves-added-to-u-s-list-of-goods-produced-by-forced-labour-idUSKBN27019H; Supriya Surendran, “US sanctions put Malaysian palm oil giants in a conundrum”, The Edge Malaysia, 19 January, 2021, https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/us-sanctions-put-malaysian-palm-oil-giants-conundrum; “Malaysia to Deport 1,200 Myanmar Migrants Despite Post-Coup Turmoil”, Bloomberg, 16 February 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-16/malaysia-to-deport-1-200-myanmar-migrants-amid-concerns.

[35] Personal communication with an insider familiar with the meeting, 11 February 2021.

[36] US Embassy in Kuala Lumpur, Twitter, 19 February 2021, https://twitter.com/usembassykl/status/1362663310865305600; “Foreign missions concerned over press freedom after Mkini contempt ruling”, Malaysiakini, 19 February 2021,  https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/563596.

[37] A. Ananthalakshmi and Rozanna Latiff, “UN, US voice concern as Myanmar ships arrive in Malaysia to pick up detainees”, Reuters, 20 February 2021, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-malaysia-idUSKBN2AK0DO.        

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2021/45 “Identity Politics: Resoundingly Absent from the 2020 Regional Election in Tasikmalaya” by Amin Mudzakkir and Ahmad Najib Burhani

 

In this picture, community member and students of an Islamic boarding school walk in front of a banner showing portraits of the then Indonesian frontrunner presidential candidate, Jakarta Governor, Joko Widodo (L) and running mate Jusuf Kalla (R) in Tasikmalaya in western Java island on June 12, 2014. Politics of identity and the politicisation of religion were dominant features in both the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections, and also in the 2017 gubernatorial election in Jakarta. In the 2020 regional election in Tasikmalaya, sectarian issues and identity politics proved remarkably irrelevant in influencing voters.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Tasikmalaya previously gained national and international repute as an intolerant district where discrimination towards religious minorities had occurred sporadically, including during the pandemic.
  • Although sectarian issues and identity politics surfaced in the early days of the 2020 regional election in Tasikmalaya, they proved remarkably irrelevant in influencing voters.
  • A key factor which dissipated the impact of identity politics in the Tasikmalaya election was the fact that all the four candidate teams claimed affiliation with the Nahdatul Ulama and/or other Muslim entities. Furthermore, religious leaders in Tasikmalaya urged contestants to refrain from provoking conflict on the basis of ethnicity or religion.
  • Polarisation along sectarian lines was also mitigated by the broader context of the 2020 regional elections being contested by diverse political coalitions which were formed on the basis of local interests and pragmatic considerations instead of strict alignment with the political parties at the national level. This greatly helped to alleviate the Islamist-nationalist divide so often seen in Indonesian politics.

* Amin Mudzakkir is Researcher at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), Jakarta. Ahmad Najib Burhani is Senior Visiting Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute and Senior Researcher at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), Jakarta.

INTRODUCTION

Politics of identity and the politicisation of religion were dominant features in both the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections, and also in the 2017 gubernatorial election in Jakarta. Discussions on the potential use and abuse of religion as well as the polarization of Indonesian society in the 2020 simultaneous regional election have been common.

In Tasikmalaya, for example, sectarianism was lurking during the early days of the slotted campaign time. A big banner quoting the joint-ministerial decree on Ahmadiyya from 2008 was erected at the gate of Al-Aqsa Mosque in Badakpaeh, Cipakat, Singaparna, Tasikmalaya. The Ahmadiyya community owns the mosque. Rumours distributed through WhatsApp messages and social media said that Azies Rismaya Mahfud, the mayoral candidate from the Gerindra Party and Democrat Party coalition, was a Shi’a devotee, a member of a religious group considered deviant by some people in Indonesia.[1] The intention was unequivocal: it was to denigrate Azies and undermine his electability.

This attempt at identity politics, and the playing up of sectarian issues did not work in the Tasikmalaya election, however. How did that happen? And what does it imply for Indonesian democracy?

ISLAMIC IDENTITY AND SECTARIANISM IN TASIKMALAYA

Tasikmalaya is often associated with “Kota Santri” (Santri City or City of Pious People).[2] The idea to construct Tasikmalaya as a Santri City began at the end of the New Order when santri became a powerful force and santri-ness a strong identity for the district.[3] This designation is based on the religiosity of its population, the huge number of pesantren (Islamic boarding school) located there, and the strength of political Islam in that district. A majority of the population in Tasikmalaya are Muslims. Tasikmalaya is also famous for the number of big and old pesantren in that district,[4] i.e. at Cipasung, Sukahideng, Suryalaya, Riyadlul Ulum Wadda’wah Condong, Bahrul Ulum Awipari, Sukamanah, Baitul Hikmah Haur Kuning, and Cintawana.[5]

Tasikmalaya was the stronghold of the Masyumi Party, one of the strongest political parties under the Sukarno regime (1945-1965). When Kartosuwiryo led the rebellion, commonly known as DI/TII (Darul Islam / Tentara Islam Indonesia) under the banner of Islam between 1949 and 1962, Tasikmalaya was the bastion for his group.

After the Reformasi period in 1998, Tasikmalaya implemented various “sharia” regulations which were considered discriminatory towards minorities.[6] One of them was regulation No. 13/2001 on the strategic plan for Tasikmalaya Regency, “which is religious / Islamic”. Following this regulation, the local government issued circular No. 451/SE/Sos/2001 on “the effort to improve the quality of belief and piety” and Decree No 13/2003 451/Se/04/Sos/2001 on the requirement for enrolling elementary and middle schools to reflect the vision of the regency, which also focused on being “religious / Islamic”. Besides this regulation, Tasikmalaya witnessed several attacks against religious minorities by Muslim groups, especially towards the Ahmadiyya. In 2014, the Ahmadis were forced to sign a declaration that stated that they have to leave the Ahmadiyya if they wanted their marriage to be registered with the Ministry of Religious Affairs.[7] Even during the pandemic, which was first announced by President Joko Widodo on 2 March 2020, discriminations towards minorities in this district did not show any sign of slowing down. A case to note is the effort of the local government to seal off Al-Aqso Mosque, which is owned by the Ahmadiyya community, in Badakpaeh, Cipakat, Singaparna on 6 April 2020.[8] The discriminatory regulations and attacks to religious minorities brought repute to the district, nationally and internationally, as an intolerant district.[9]

NAHDLATUL ULAMA AND THE 2020 REGIONAL ELECTION

The 2020 regional election in Tasikmalaya saw four pairs of candidates running against each other: 1) Azies Rismaya Mahpud-Haris Sanjaya, 2) Ade Sugianto-Cecep Nurul Yakin, 3) Cep Zamzam Dzulfikar Nur-Padil Karsoma, and 4) Iwan Saputra-Iip Miftahul Faoz. Interestingly, all of them claimed to be representing the santri element of the Tasikmalaya population. More specifically, they claimed to represent the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU).[10] Although direct election of heads of the Tasikmalaya regency government has been held since 2006, the 2020 election was the first to see all candidates claiming to represent NU.[11]

Although NU has a strong influence on society, its role in local politics had not been very visible and it had even seemed neglected in politics.[12] National developments after the 2019 presidential election appeared to have changed this situation. With the inclusion of several NU leaders in Joko Widodo’s administration, such as Ma’ruf Amin as the Vice President, many, including politicians in Tasikmalaya, identified or affiliated themselves with NU, expecting to win more support and more votes through it.

It is worth noting that the government’s decision to divide Tasikmalaya into Tasikmalaya City (Kota Tasikmalaya) and Tasikmalaya Regency (Kabupaten Tasikmalaya) in 2001 provided a platform for the NU to gain more influence in the government. In urban areas, the influence of the NU is limited or obscure. Modernist religious organizations such as the Muhammadiyah and the Islamic Union (Persis) are stronger and more dominant than the NU in urban areas. These two organizations have several schools and pesantren in the city. In the regency areas, NU is indeed more dominant.

Large Islamic boarding schools located in the district are commonly affiliated with the NU. Among them are Cipasung, Sukahideung, Sukamanah and Haurkuning. Even Miftahul Huda pesantren, which was initially somewhat distant to NU because of the connection between its founder, Choer Affandi, and the Darul Islam (DI) movement, is now moving closer to NU.[13] Moreover, after the banning of Hizbut Tahrir (HTI) and the Front of Islamic Defenders (FPI), the role of the NU as the holder of religious authority in Tasikmalaya Regency seems definite, with almost no contender to challenge its position.

Below is stated the background of the four pairs of candidates and how they affiliate themselves with the NU. Azies Rismaya Mahfud is a son of Haji Mahfud – better known as Haji Engkud – (died 2010), the founder of the Mayasari group, a company that originally focused on public transportation in Jakarta (Mayasari, Primajasa, Doa Ibu) but has now expanded into other fields including property and retail.[14] Together with his four siblings – Agus Mahfud, Ade Ruhyana Mahfud, Amir Mahfud, and Rahmi Mahfud – Azies controls the businesses of their parents.[15] In addition, they also manage the Al-Muttaqin educational institution, an elite school in the city of Tasikmalaya. Haji Mahfud, as a native of Tasikmalaya, tried his luck in Jakarta since the era of Governor Ali Sadikin in the 1960s. He has since become a successful businessman.

Apart from doing business, Haji Mahfud and his children, including Azies, were active in the Islamic movement, and in political parties. In the past, Haji Mahfud was a member of the Islamic Ummah Association (PUI), but his children, while becoming activists in Islamic Students Associations (HMI), became close to a Shi’ite group (IJABI).[16] In terms of political parties, Haji Mahfud’s family is very dynamic. Initially, they supported the Crescent and Star Party (PBB), then the National Mandate Party (PAN), then the Islamic Union Party (PPP) and the Justice and Welfare Party (PKS) to an extent, but lately, they have been seen to be actively associately with Gerindra Party. In the 2020 Tasikmalaya election, Azies was formally registered as the candidate for Gerindra Party and the Democrat Party.

Azies’ running mate, Haris Sanjaya, is an NU activist, and was in fact the chairman of the Nahdlatul Ulama Student Association (IPNU) in Tasikmalaya Regency. In addition to the IPNU, he was also active in Ansor, NU’s Youth wing, and a member of the National Awakening Party (PKB). He was general chairman of PKB Tasikmalaya Regency for two periods and a member of parliament for Tasikmalaya. But since his party, the PKB, decided to support other candidates in the elections, Sanjaya moved to join Azies. One of the significant meanings of this partnership between Azies and Sanjaya was that it relieved Azies of the sectarian issue. Azies, who was associated with the Shi’a denomination, was no longer attacked on that issue after his appointment of Sanjaya as his running mate.[17]

The second candidate, Ade Sugianto is a politician from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP). At 23, he served as chairman for the parliament in Tasikmalaya Regency (1999-2004). He then became deputy regent and subsequently replaced Uu Ruzhanul Ulum as the regent of Tasikmalaya. That happened after Ulum became deputy governor of West Java. Ade studied Archeology at Gadjah Mada University but did not finish his undergraduate programme.

Knowing that Tasikmalaya is “Kota Santri”, Ade asked Cecep Nurul Yakin to be his running mate in the 2020 election.[18] Cecep is the chairman of PPP for Tasikmalaya Regency. He is a son of the late Adang Mukarom, a prominent ulama, and a grandson of the late Abdulloh Muslim of Khoirul Huda Islamic Boarding School, Pancatengah. His father and grandfather were well-known as students of Mama Ruhiyat Bantargedang, a sufi guru, who died in Mecca in the early 20th century. Cecep is also active in the NU as the chairman of Pagar Nusa, a martial art group, of Tasikmalaya.

The third candidate, Cep Zamzam Zulfikar Nur, was running as an individual candidate and did not use any political party as his vehicle. Before that, he was a civil servant in the Local Government Office of Tasikmalaya. He is a son of the late Asep Moch. Saefullah of pesantren Nurul Wafa, Sukarame, Tasikamalaya, who is a teacher of Tatang Farhanul Hakim (former Regent of Tasikmalaya). Tatang was the man behind Cep Zamzam’s candidacy. It was also Tatang who mobilized community support for Cep Zamzam, and helped Cep Zamzam to complete the administrative requirement of having a certain number of ID cards in order to pass the process of individual candidacy. Besides Tatang, Cep Zamzam also received much show of support from the alliance of young ulama of the NU, named the Alliance of Ajengan Anom (Asparanom).[19]

To accompany Cep Zamzam in the election, Tatang asked Padil Karsona, a senior bureaucrat from Cikalong, Tasikmalaya, who had had a long career in Purwakarta, to become his running mate. Padil’s last appointment in the government’s office was as Regional Secretary of Purwakarta Regency. He actually ran for the regency in Purwakarta in 2018, but failed. Cep Zamzam and Padil were the first pair running independently, without political party, in Tasikmalaya.

The fourth candidate, Iwan Saputra, is a bureaucrat and son of Lieutenant Colonel Basuni (former military commander in the district of Tasikmalaya, Chairman of the Tasikmalaya parliament, and Chairman of the Golkar Party).[20] Iwan’s last bureaucratic appointment was as Head of Bappeda (Agency for Regional Development) of Tasikmalaya Regency. Iwan’s main supporters, therefore, came from Golkar circles, army children (FKPPI), and certain pesantrens, such as Pesantren Suryalaya and Pesantren Idrisiyah, the two largest tarekat pesantrens in Tasikmalaya. These two pesantren were affiliated with Golkar Party during the New Order.

Being aware that he was not closely affiliated with the NU and did not have a strong religious background, Iwan took Iip Miftah Faoz as his running mate. Iip is a son of the late Saefuddin Zuhri of Haurkuning Islamic Boarding School, one of the largest NU Islamic boarding schools in southern ​​Tasikmalaya. Iip himself is also an alumnus of the Sukahideng Islamic boarding school and was active in various pesantren-based NGOs, as well as in the Ansor of Tasikmalaya Regency. In addition, he was also coordinator of village assistants for the Ministry of Villages in West Java for several years. This pair was registered as a candidate from PKB, Golkar, PKS, PAN and Nasdem.

Since all candidates claimed to be associated with NU, sectarian issues did not arise during the campaigning period.[21] What happened instead was mutual-claim and internal competition within the NU, and they did not attack each other with sectarian issues. The three candidates for deputy regents, namely Cecep, Haris, and Iip, even showed their friendly relationship in a photo taken during their participation in the Madrasah Kader NU, 7 November 2020. During a debate held by the Tasikmalaya Election Commission, a vice regent candidate, Iip Miftahul Faoz, said loudly that using the term “Islamic” was not really important in public statements.[22] This was put forward in response to another candidate for vice regent, Cecep Nurul Yakin, who asked him why he did not include the words “religious / Islamic”, referring to the Sharia By-Law No 13/2001, in their vision and mission statements.

During the campaign, the candidates avoided specific and distinctive issues. The incumbent promised to continue with the existing development, while the challengers contested that development in Tasikmalaya Regency was lagging behind. It was only Iwan-Iip who raised an alternative policy. If elected, they promised to issue a card, named Peduli Umat Melayani Rakyat (PUMR) or “Caring (Muslim) Community and Serving People”, to be used to strengthen the welfare of people, especially Muslims.[23] Paying special attention to the Muslim community was seen as an important factor; the 2020 regional election in Tasikmalaya Regency was basically a struggle to win the vote of santri (pious Muslims).[24]

The regional elections was held on 9 December 2020. Nothing unique happened except when the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI), led by Denny JA, announced in the afternoon, the result of their quick count. The quick count showed that Iwan-Iip had won with 33.99% of the votes, followed by the incumbent Ade-Cecep with 31.29%, Azis-Haris with 23.14%, and finally Cep Zamzam-Padil with 11.58%. The LSI itself is a political consultant for the Ade-Cecep pair. After the quick count was released, Iwan-Iip immediately claimed victory.[25]

However, on 16 December 2020, the Indonesian Commission of Election of Tasikmalaya Regency (KPUD) announced a different result from the LSI quick count.[26] Ade-Cecep won over Iwan-Iip. Ade-Cecep had received 32.18% of the votes, while Iwan-Iip had won only 31.47%. This decision of the KPUD generated controversy, and Iwan Saputra and his deputy filed a lawsuit to the Constitutional Court for alleging systematic fraud committed by Ade Sugianto.

Until today, the Constitutional Court has as yet not issued any decision regarding the winner(s) of the election in Tasikmalaya.

CONCLUSION

The rise in NU’s role in Tasikmalaya has resulted in them having strong influence in the local political contest. The question why identity politics failed to determine the 2020 Tasikmalaya election can be answered from this point of view. The fact that all four pairs of candidates claimed to represent NU aided in promoting pluralism, making identity-based attacks arguably less successful. Azies Rismaya, who was initially accused as a member of a deviant religious group, was no longer attacked for it after he decided to partner with Haris Sanjaya, an NU leader. The accusation disappeared by itself.

What happened during the election was mainly competition among NU people. Fortunately, NU leaders in Tasikmalaya were well-prepared and responded wisely to the potential use of identity politics among NU candidates. Atam Rustam, the local chairman of the NU, announced that the board of the NU did not provide any recommendation to vote for a certain candidate. More important than that, Atam asked voters not to be provoked by the issue of SARA (ethnicity, religion, race, and inter-group). This announcement was not only written in a circular letter, but also video-recorded and widely circulated to the public. This announcement was very effective in mitigating the use or the abuse of sectarian issues and identity politics.[27]

In other words, the role of Islamic organizations, in this case; NU of Tasikmalaya Regency, was to ensure that the issue of identity politics was not used and abused during the elections. The role of civil Islam in balancing democracy cannot be underestimated. The absence of identity politics in the 2020 Tasikmalaya election evidently reflected this aspect.

Besides the role of NU local leaders in limiting the use of sectarian issues, the context behind the 2020 regional elections could have also contributed to the absence of identity politics. Simultaneous elections took place in many parts of Indonesia. There were 270 regions across the country covering nine provinces, 224 regencies and 37 municipalities which held election that same day, 9 December 2020. The division between Islamist party and nationalist party collapsed in this election. PKS and the PDIP, previously seen as water and oil, were allied in 13 regional elections.[28] In Tasikmalaya, PKB, PKS, PAN, Golkar and Nasdem were allied in support of Iwan-Iip.

The blurring division, coalition, and alliance among political parties made it difficult to have a single national issue to define them and contrast them from other parties. They could not orchestrate a single theme in all the regions. Therefore, it was not surprising that there was no polarisation during this election.

The last factor that contributed to the absence of identity politics was the banning of the Indonesian Hizbut Tahrir (HTI).[29] This organisation had been the brain behind the rise of identity politics and the implementation of Islamic Sharia in several districts, and was the mastermind behind various demonstrations and rallies, including the 212 movement that demanded the government to give a dominant role to Islam and to discriminate against non-Muslims. With the banning of the HTI in 2017, no other organization has appeared which is active, capable and systematic enough to promote identity politics in elections. There was, of course, the Front of Islamic Defenders (FPI), a loyal partner of the HTI. The supreme leader of the FPI, Muhammad Rizieq Shihab, returned from self-exile in Saudi Arabia on 10 November 2020. However, without the help of the HTI, Shihab seemed unable to consolidate his supporters to activate identity politics during the regional elections. The government had continuously tried to restrict the activities of the FPI and finally banned it not long after the regional elections, on 30 December 2020.[30]

ISEAS Perspective 2021/45, 16 April 2021


ENDNOTES

[1]  “Azies Klarifikasi Tuduhan Dirinya Syiah, di Masjid As-Siraj wal Arsyad”, kapol.id, 14 June 2020, https://kapol.id/azies-klarifikasi-tuduhan-dirinya-syiah-di-masjid-as-siraj-wal-arsyad (accessed 4 March 2021).

[2] For a discussion on the concept of santri, see: Burhani, Ahmad Najib Burhani, “Geertz’s Trichotomy of Abangan, Santri, and Priyayi: Controversy and Continuity”, Journal of Indonesian Islam, 11 (2/2017): 329-50. For Tasikmalaya as “Kota Santri”, see: Amin Mudzakkir, “Perseteruan Memori Kolektif: Kontestasi Islam dan Politik di Tasikmalayaa Pasca-Orde Baru”, Dinika: Academic Journal of Islamic Studies, Vol. 4 (3/2019): 399-412.

[3] It began after the 1996 riot, when some people vandalized the properties of Chinese and attacked houses of worship of non-Muslim minorities. See Mudzakkir (2019).

[4] Of the 1.8 million in Tasikmalaya Regency, only 593 were non-Muslims. See Kabupaten Tasikmalaya dalam Angka 2021. Tasikmalaya: BPS – Statistics of Tasikmalaya Regency, 2021, p. 152.

[5] “10 Pondok Pesantren Besar Di Tasikmalaya”, nu-kotatasikmalaya.id, 25 Sep 2020. https://nu-kotatasikmalaya.id/10-pondok-pesantren-besar-di-tasikmalaya (accessed 4 March 2021)

[6] For more detail, see Amin Mudzakkir, “Konservatisme Islam dan Intoleransi Keagamaan di Tasikmaya”, Harmoni, Vol. 16 (1/2017): 57-74; Also, Amin Mudzakkir, “Dilema Kota Santri: Politik kewarganegaraan di Tasikmalaya Pasca-Soeharto”, Presented at the 7th International Symposium of Journal Antropologi Indonesia, 23-26 July 2019. https://simposiumjai.ui.ac.id/download/9-10-kota-santri-dillema-the-politics-of-citizenship-in-post-soeharto-tasikmalaya

[7] Laporan Kebebasan Beragama / Berkeyakinan dan Intoleransi 2014 (Jakarta: The Wahid Institute, 2014), p. 53.

[8] “Upaya Penyegelan Masjid Ahmadiyah di Kabupaten Tasikmalaya Tuai Penolakan”, pikiranrakyat.com, 7 April 2020. https://www.pikiran-rakyat.com/jawa-barat/pr-01362265/upaya-penyegelan-masjid-ahmadiyah-di-kabupaten-tasikmalaya-tuai-penolakan (accessed 4 March 2021).

[9] Jessica Soedirgo, (2018) “Informal networks and religious intolerance: how clientelism incentivizes the discrimination of the Ahmadiyah in Indonesia”, Citizenship Studies, 22 (2/2018): 191-207.

[10] For Haris Sanjaya, Cecep Nurul Yakin, and Iip Miftahul Faoz, see “3 Kader NU Bertarung di Pilkada Tasikmalaya, Ini Sikap PCNU”, jabar.nu.or.id, 24 Sep 2020, https://jabar.nu.or.id/detail/3-kader-nu-bertarung-di-pilkada-tasikmalaya–ini-sikap-pcnu (accessed 12 March 2020); For Cep Zamzam Dzulfikar Nur, see “Kiai Muda Siap Dukung Cep Zamzam,” radartasikmalaya.com, 23 Sep 2019, https://www.radartasikmalaya.com/kiai-muda-siap-dukung-cep-zamzam (accessed 12 March 2021)

[11] Since 2006, the Regency of Tasikmalaya had held local elections three times. In 2006, Tatang Farhanul Hakim was elected regent. In 2011, Uu Ruzhanul Ulum was elected to succeed Tatang Farhanul Hakim. In 2016, Uu Ruzhanul Ulum was elected for the second time as regent. Candidate’s association with the NU, although weakly, appeared in all those three elections. In 2020, being part of the NU was believed to be a key to success and, therefore, all the candidates claimed to be part of the NU. For 2006 election, see “Tasikmalaya Gelar Pilkada, 4 Pasangan Bertarung”, detik.com, 7 Jan 2006, https://news.detik.com/berita/d-514433/tasikmalaya-gelar-pilkada-4-pasangan-bertarung; For 2011 election, see “KPU Tetapkan Pasangan ‘Huda’ Menangkan Pilkada Tasikmalaya’, antara.com, 15 Jan 2011, https://jabar.antaranews.com/berita/29844/kpu-tetapkan-pasangan-huda-menang-pilkada-tasikmalaya; For 2016 election, see “Molor Sebulan, Calon Tunggal Bupati Tasikmalaya Ditetapkan”, tempo.co, 11 Jan 2016, https://nasional.tempo.co/read/737591/molor-sebulan-calon-tunggal-bupati-tasikmalaya-ditetapkan (accessed 13 March 2021)

[12] On the political maps in Tasikmalaya, between the city of Tasikmalaya and the Regency of Tasikmalaya, see Amin Mudzakkir, “Konservatisme Islam dan Intoleransi Keagamaan di Tasikmaya”, Harmoni, Vol. 16 (1/2017): 57-74.

[13] Choer Affandi is the founder of the Miftahul Huda Islamic boarding school, one of the largest Islamic boarding schools in Tasikmalaya and even West Java. Before founding the pesantren in 1967, he was well known as a Darul Islam influential figure. See Amin Mudzakkir, “Konservatisme Islam dan Intoleransi Keagamaan di Tasikmaya”, Harmoni, Vol. 16 (1/2017): 57-74; Amin Mudzakkir, “Mobilisasi Islam dan Politik di Jawa Barat: Sebelum dan Sesudah Rangkaian Aksi 212” in Cahyo Pamungkas and Yogi Setya Permana (eds.), Intoleransi dan Politik Identitas Kontemporer di Indonesia (Jakarta: LIPI Press, 2020), pp. 173-196.

[14] “Sekilas Tentang Sosok Seorang H. Azies Rismaya Mahpud”, rakyatmerdekanews.com, n.d., https://rakyatmerdekanews.com/2020/07/12/sekilas-tentang-sosok-seorang-h-azies-rismaya-mahpud (accessed 4 March 2021)

[15] “Azies Rismaya Jadi Cabup Tasikmalaya Paling Tajir”, detik.news.com, 25 Sep 2020, https://news.detik.com/berita-jawa-barat/d-5188076/azies-rismaya-jadi-cabup-tasikmalaya-paling-tajir (accessed 4 March 2021)

[16] Interview with Nurjani, a local journalist, in Tasikmalaya, 26 Nov 2019.

[17] “Azis Minta Restu NU untuk Maju sebagai Cabup Tasikmalaya”, koropak.co.id, 8 Feb 2020. https://news.koropak.co.id/11548/azis-minta-restu-nu-untuk-maju-sebagai-cabup-tasikmalaya (accessed 4 March 2021)

[18] “Berangkat dari Keluarga Pondok Pesantren, Berikut Profil H Cecep Nurul Yakin, Calon Wakil Bupati Nomor Urut 2”, kamarang.com, 9 october 2020. https://www.kamarang.com/berangkat-dari-keluarga-pondok-pesantren-berikut-profil-h-cecep-nurul-yakin-calon-wakil-bupati-nomor-urut-2 (accessed 4 March 2021)

[19] “Kiai Muda Siap Dukung Cep Zamzam”, radartasikmalaya.com, 23 Sep 2019. https://www.radartasikmalaya.com/kiai-muda-siap-dukung-cep-zamzam (accessed 4 March 2021)

[20] “Mengenal Sosok Bakal Calon Bupati Tasikmalaya Iwan Saputra”, sakata.id, 21 Sep 2020. https://sakata.id/sosok/mengenal-sosok-bakal-calon-bupati-tasikmalaya-iwan-saputra (accessed 4 March 2021)

[21] Yang muncul justru adalah politik uang sebagaimana dikemukakan oleh badan pengawas pemilihan umum (bawaslu) setempat. Lihat, https://tirto.id/pilkada-tasikmalaya-2020-bawaslu-temukan-dugaan-politik-uang-f7W5 (accesed 16 Maret 2021)

[22] See “Pilkada Kabupaten Tasikmalaya, Debat dengan Cecep, Iip: Jargon Islami Tidak Terlalu Penting”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrTaVSs_90M (accessed 13/3/2021)

[23] “Inilah Janji Politik Cawabup Iip untuk Masyarakat Kabupaten Tasikmalaya”,  https://literasinews.pikiran-rakyat.com/politik/pr-92860870/inilah-janji-politik-cawabup-iip-untuk-masyarakat-kabupaten-tasikmalaya (accesed 19/03/2020)

[24] “Ceruk Suara Santri di Pilkada Tasikmalaya”, https://koran.tempo.co/read/nasional/459855/ceruk-suara-santri-di-pemilihan-bupati-tasikmalaya

[25] “Iwan-Iip Menang di Pilbup Tasikmalaya Versi QC LSI Denny JA”, detik.com, 9 Dec 2020. https://news.detik.com/berita-jawa-barat/d-5288777/iwan-iip-menang-di-pilbup-tasikmalaya-versi-qc-lsi-denny-ja (accessed 4 March 2021)

[26] “Quick Count LSI Denny JA di Pilkada Tasikmalaya Meleset, Akademisi: LSI Harus Jelaskan ke Publik”, kompas.com, 17 Dec 2020. https://regional.kompas.com/read/2020/12/17/13223551/quick-count-lsi-denny-ja-di-pilkada-tasikmalaya-meleset-akademisi-lsi-harus (accessed 4 March 2021)

[27] “Maklumat PCNU Kab. Tasikmalaya Terkait Pilkada Kabupaten Tasikmalaya”, 20 Oct 2020. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTeOwdmsCcs (accessed 4 March 2020)

[28] “Bersatu di 13 Pilkada PDIP-PKS Ternyata Bukan Minyak dan Air”, rm.id, 30 August 2020. https://rm.id/baca-berita/pilkada/45854/bersatu-di-13-pilkada-pdippks-ternyata-bukan-minyak-dan-air (accessed 4 March 2021)

[29] Ahmad Najib Burhani, “The Banning of Hizbut Tahrir and the Consolidation of Democracy in Indonesia”, ISEAS Perspective, 19 September 2017. /images/pdf/ISEAS_Perspective_2017_71.pdf

[30] Ahmad Najib Burhani, “Will the Banning of the FPI Thwart Radicalism?”, ISEAS Commentary, 5 January 2021. https://fulcrum.sg/will-the-banning-of-the-fpi-thwart-radicalism

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2021/44 “Artisanal, Small-scale and Large-scale Mining in Lao PDR” by Oliver Tappe

 

A Chinese tin mining concession at Ban Boneng, Lao PDR. Since colonial times, the country has earned considerable renown as a resource rich frontier awaiting extraction and development. Photo: Oliver Tappe.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Despite eight years of gradual decline due to low global commodity prices, the mining sector in Lao PDR still constitutes a key source of state revenue and an important destination for foreign direct investment, especially from China, Vietnam and Thailand.
  • Economic development through industrial mining has not translated into employment opportunities for local communities. Rather, the Lao mining sector is marked by a parallel structure of industrial (medium to large scale) mining operations and (informal) artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM).
  • ASM miners often operate in a legal grey zone since attempts at legislative formalisation often remain vague and do not address local peculiarities. ASM communities thus suffer from the sector’s high social and environmental costs.
  • Since the Law on Minerals (2017) was amended, Lao legal frameworks to address administrative and environmental challenges appear more. However, law enforcement still remains weak due to lack of capacity and communication between different ministries at various administrative levels (national, provincial, district).
  • The structural transition of the mining sector (in particular, the decline of large-scale copper mining) and the impact of Covid-19 during the lockdown resulted in a decline in mineral production in 2020.

* Oliver Tappe is Associate Fellow with the Regional Social and Cultural Studies Programme at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. He is also Senior Researcher at the Institute of Anthropology, University of Heidelberg (Germany).

INTRODUCTION

Attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) into its resource sectors has been integral to the Lao government’s goal to leave the ranks of “Least Developed Countries” (Menon and Warr 2013). Having sustained average growth at more than 6% until the pandemic kicked in – with foreign grants and loans accounting for more than 20% of GDP – its socioeconomic development has been largely based on the extraction and export of the country’s rich natural resources. The state generates revenue through the export of hydropower, minerals, timber, and cash crops such as rubber and bananas. The mining sector, for instance, constitutes an estimated 20% of merchandise exports (World Bank 2020: 17). However, the social and environmental costs of resource extraction constitute a key challenge to sustainable economic growth.

This is particularly true for the Lao mining sector. As elsewhere in the world, extractive practices shape physical and social landscapes, altering local economies and human-environment relations. In Laos, the important large-scale mining (LSM) areas are located in upland regions inhabited by peoples whose occupations are traditionally based on agriculture and forest products – livelihoods that are particularly vulnerable to the environmental impact of mining. Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM), while providing local income opportunities, sometimes contribute to land degradation and pollution, which in turn negatively affect these communities’ livelihoods (farming, fishing and livestock).

Resource governance is thus a major concern for Lao state authorities. However, lack of human and financial capacities, as well as institutional disconnect and internal struggles, hamper effective control of extractive industries, especially in Laos’ rapidly changing mining sector. This article gives an overview of Lao mining and discusses the social and environmental impacts of both ASM and LSM activities, with a particular focus on legal issues and local livelihood challenges.

THE LAO MINING SECTOR

Since colonial times, Laos has earned considerable renown as a resource rich frontier awaiting extraction and development. Gold reserves, in particular, attracted the attention of generations of entrepreneurs. In the 1990s, the World Bank identified mining as a key sector for socioeconomic development and revenue generation. Since then, the mining sector has attracted a large share of FDI – especially from the regional powerhouses of China, Thailand and Vietnam. The Lao Ministry of Energy and Mines estimates more than 150 mineral reserves in the country, including gold, copper, tin, iron, bauxite, lignite and potash.

As in the case of the notorious hydropower dams mushrooming throughout the country (see Shoemaker and Robichaud 2019), mining mostly happens in the culturally diverse upland areas that constitute 80% of Lao territory. The uplands of Laos appear as resource frontier (Barney 2009; Lu and Schönweger 2019) to be developed and exploited. However, extraction can be both transformative and sometimes devastating for local communities. In the mining sector, economic opportunities contrast with considerable social and environmental costs (discussed in more detail below).

The Lao mining sector used to be dominated by the ‘big two’ gold and copper mining areas: The Phu Bia mine in Xaysomboun province and the Xepon mine in Savannakhet province. Established by Australian mining companies after the World Bank-influenced economic policy reforms of the 1990s, the mines were later purchased by Chinese companies. Before the gradual closure of the copper mines during 2020 – as planned even before the pandemic for reasons of rentability – the Phu Bia and Xepon mines generated up to 90% of state revenues earned from mining (Mottet 2013; Barney 2018). A number of smaller mining operations continue to exploring the remaining gold reserves and other rare metals in these areas, taking advantage of existing infrastructures and new technologies.

The economic significance of industrial mining, however, does not always translate into job opportunities for the greater part of local population. This can be partially attributed to the fact that the vast majority of mining concessions are operated by Chinese or Vietnamese investors (Mottet 2013; Earth Systems and BGR 2019). As in the case of Vietnamese-run rubber plantations in Laos (see Baird et al. 2019), foreign mining companies prefer a Chinese and/or Vietnamese workforce, especially (but not only) with regard to skilled labour. The reason for this tendency within the Lao labour market is manifold (ibid; Molland 2017; Tappe 2019): For the companies, labour recruitment and control appear more convenient with work migrants from their respective countries.

Local villagers indeed often lack the skills for the well-paid jobs and thus compete with migrants – from China/Vietnam as well as from other Lao provinces – for unskilled jobs. Moreover, local villagers often prefer ASM over direct employment in the mines. In the case of the tin mines in Khammouane – one of the first industries in colonial Laos – local villagers calculate income from ASM against the low wages paid by Chinese and Vietnamese companies (even if according to the minimum wage – 1,200,000 Kip / 133 USD – as required by Lao Labour Law). However, while ASM ‘freelancers’ might receive a higher income, they are excluded from the little work protection that formal mining labour guarantees (Tappe 2020).

Amidst reports of closure and fragmentation of the two big mines, alongside a growing and uncontrolled ASM sector, the latter shifted into focus and received more political attention. Prior to this, attention was concentrated on the economic perspectives and the social and environmental challenges of LSM. At the moment, we witness a more differentiated view on the mining sector that includes various practices of artisanal and small-scale mining, the different actors involved, and state attempts of control and formalization (see Barney 2018; Moretti and Garret 2018).

ASM practices have a long history in Laos. Early accounts of French explorers noted the panning and digging for alluvial minerals by Lao villagers. Indeed, even today an estimated 15% of the villages in Laos consider artisanal and small-scale mining an important component in their subsistence. In particular, agricultural slack periods are marked by increased ASM activity. And yet there are new dynamics and challenges such as increasing mechanization, heterogeneous practices, transnational dynamics and resulting legal ambiguities (Oulavanh 2019).

THE LAW ON MINERALS AND ITS LIMITATIONS

The revised Law on Minerals considers the diverse social and environmental challenges of mining.[1] The legislative framework appears deliberate and robust, but certain limits to sound law enforcement remain. Most notably, there still exist insufficient monitoring capacities in relevant institutions like the Ministry of Energy and Mines, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, and the Ministry of Planning and Investment, along with the lack of communication between them and the respective national, provincial and district levels (Earth Systems and BGR 2019; Oulavanh 2019).

The coexistence and blurred boundaries between ASM and LSM have also impeded clear legal solutions. In many long-standing mining areas, artisanal and small-scale miners operate next to or within (foreign) LSM concessions. Even if benefitting from income opportunities in this legal grey zone, local communities bear the social and environmental costs of mining (see Lahiri-Dutt 2014; Oulavanh 2019; Tappe 2020). This situation calls for specific sustainable solutions for governance and control.

The inclusion of ASM into the Law on Minerals is certainly an important step towards a more holistic view on mining and its corresponding economic practices and impact on livelihoods. For example, artisanal mining as a (legitimate) business “means mineral extraction activity by using primitive tools, mechanized equipment with fewer than five horse power and no more than ten laborers” while small-scale mining is restricted to “stripping of top soil and overburden (…) where it is not appropriate for industrial mining within an area not to exceed ten hectares”.[2] Moreover, any ASM activity is only permitted for Lao citizens/entities.

Such narrow definitions make it difficult to legally reckon with recent trends of mechanization, intensification in ASM, and the rise of (domestic and foreign) small-to-medium-scale mining activities that escape such categorizations. Many mining operations in Laos below the relatively well-monitored LSM level thus navigate in legally ambiguous waters. Increased mechanization, migration and other unintended effects of mining development entail a variegated pattern of ASM in Laos which poses considerable challenges for effective legislation and governance (Barney 2018).

Another problem for resource governance are concessions that were granted before recent legal adjustments which sometimes overlap with village land or legitimate ASM claims. As in the case of agribusiness in Laos (Lu and Schönweger 2019), foreign investors sometimes find their allocated land being smaller than the areas initially granted in contracts with the Lao state. Investors and villagers thus find themselves in awkward situations where they are left alone by Lao authorities to sort out their conflicting claims on the ground. The high number of opportunity-seeking Chinese entrepreneurs – activated by Chinese foreign investment incentives and the ‘empty land’ discourse of the Government of Laos (ibid.), are likely to entail more of such conflicts.

In the case of the old tin mining area in the Nam Phathaen valley (Khammouane Province), LSM and ASM entertain a complex coexistence. In some cases, ASM miners are tolerated by Chinese and Vietnamese companies under the condition that they sell the ore to them (Earth Systems and BGR 2019; Tappe 2020). As mentioned above, ASM provides a higher income for the villagers than the wage labour from Chinese and Vietnamese mines (besides the de facto exclusion of local Lao from permanent employment). For the companies, the local villagers represent an informal workforce for which they can deny any legal responsibility in case of accidents and other health risks. Moreover, farmland is increasingly degraded as explorations continue without proper enforcement of post-closure rehabilitation, despite it being required under the Law on Minerals.

Even though the Lao government has suspended new concessions, existing concessions are sometimes operated by incompetent mining companies. Regulatory frameworks and management capacities are still insufficient (Hernando and Yonemura 2020). The fragmentation of the big mining areas will put additional strain on the Lao authorities’ already overtaxed capacities to control and monitor mining projects in the country. The question remains on how far local authorities are able or willing to use rules, regulations, and their power to effectively protect local resources and livelihoods from the impact of mining practices.

THE SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS OF MINING

Communities living in mining areas in Laos often find themselves caught in a vicious cycle: Extractive industries provide the opportunity of potential wealth that simultaneously undermines local livelihoods dependent on natural resources. In particular, industrial mining activities provide few job opportunities for local populations but have severe environmental impact on land and water resources. Land degradation drives people even more into ASM, ironically contributing to further environmental problems characterised by precarious livelihoods and health risks. Yet, villages in Laos have different experiences with regard to extractivism and the resulting dialectic of opportunity and precarity.

Éric Mottet (2013) has shown how an ethnic Khmu village near the Phu Bia mine became an example of a village that benefited from the nearby mine through income opportunities (sale of agricultural produce to the mine) and the financing of local school and health services. In contrast, a neighbouring Hmong village mainly experienced negative effects such as pollution and degradation of forest resources that are central to their livelihoods. Such experiences add to historical grievances and tensions between the Lao state and Hmong communities in Xaysomboun Province. Violence directed against Chinese mining companies have been reported in recent years.[3]

This question of exclusion and vulnerability, especially for ethnic minority groups, becomes a crucial one for the ASM sector as well. Oulavanh Keovilignavong (2019) gives examples of how income opportunities through ASM are thwarted by the continuous degradation of land, water and forest resources. The effect of such degradation is particularly dramatic for poor households (often resettled ethnic minorities). These impoverished households with little capital are dependent on these increasingly degraded natural resources for their subsistence, yet they benefit less from such mining opportunities. Thus, both economic opportunities and risks through mining activities are unevenly distributed. Oulavanh’s emphasis on the convergence of poverty and ethnic minority status points at a general problem in the upland valleys of Laos.

In the Nam Phathaen valley, Lao villagers combine agricultural subsistence with ASM activities, either in abandoned mines (some dating back to French colonial times) or on concession grounds (cf. Lahiri-Dutt 2014; Lahiri-Dutt et al. 2014; Tappe 2020). Land degradation has gradually shifted the ratio such that ASM presently comprises 70% of household incomes. Polluted water reserves require the villagers to buy fish and drinking water. Income opportunities are thus challenged by changing patterns of agricultural production and consumption. Women, in particular, carry a huge workload and health risks, as they manage both domestic labour and various ASM activities (such as panning in contaminated rivers).

As Keith Barney (2019: 354) notes, the recent decade has witnessed another environmentally detrimental development: Medium-scale mechanized mining that operates with backhoe excavators, pump dredges and sluices – thus blurring the boundaries between LSM and ASM as fixed in the Law on Minerals. This emerging field draws in workers, operators and investors from China and Vietnam who negotiate permissions with local authorities, usually without any governmental control or monitoring. Local villagers lease farm land to such mining operators for some easy money but then see their land being irreparably damaged and degraded (ibid.: 357).

The legal ambiguities of medium-scale operations in remote areas have devastating environmental consequences. Given that the monitoring capacities of the respective government agencies depend on mining-related state revenues or even directly from the mines as in the case of the (currently out-phasing) big Phu Bia and Xepon mines, the prospects of resource governance in the mining sector appear bleak. The growing fragmentation and complexity of the mining sector will yield less revenue for the Lao state but increase environmental risks and, thus, severely challenge local livelihoods.

Environmentalists in Laos (and neighbouring Thailand) are also concerned about the Hongsa lignite coal plant and mining project in Xayaboury Province. The project is 80% Thai-owned and its 1878 MW electricity generation will be mainly exported to Thailand. Mining activities and related infrastructure development have affected forest and water resources. A coal-fired power project, the Hongsa plant contributes to climate change and local health risks. If we take a look from the ground, things get more complex and reveal the challenges of resource governance and local participation in contemporary Lao PDR.

CONCLUSION: OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS FOR MINING IN LAOS

Laos remains a ‘frontier of economic opportunity’ as the Asian Development Bank once exclaimed (Barney 2009). However, the mining sector has in recent years lost attractiveness to investors due to a global commodity price slump, depleting mineral ores, and incoherent legal regulations (Hernando and Yonemura 2020). Lockdowns during the pandemic have certainly aggravate the situation (World Bank 2020). Local communities still only rarely benefit from job opportunities in mining. Instead, they generate income through leasing land and/or selling agricultural produce to mining companies, or by practicing ASM on tailings or in abandoned mines. ASM activities can be expected to increase during the pandemic due to the general economic downturn and resulting land pressure as many urbans and migrants return to the villages (Cole 2021).

Economic opportunities from mining for local communities come at high social and environmental costs: Land and forest resources are degraded, water reserves polluted. This is due to the ongoing contamination with heavy metals or other destructions from increased mechanization in small- and medium-scale mining practices that often escape proper resource governance. Post-closure mine rehabilitation is also still weak. Covid-19 exacerbates existing vulnerabilities of ASM communities such as health risks, livelihood challenges, and social tensions (for example, provoked by domestic in-migrants or returnees who have lost jobs elsewhere).[4]

That said, reliable mechanisms of resource governance are key to the protection of local livelihoods in regions affected by mining practices on all scales, from artisanal to large-scale mining (cf. Barney 2018; Oulavanh 2019). Even if the Law on Minerals were refined to account for more complex small- and medium-scale mining practices, implementation and enforcement will remain a permanent challenge for the Lao state. More capacities and financial means will be required to better monitor proper mine operation and rehabilitation. The participation of local communities in the whole process of concession granting and operation must also be guaranteed – with responsible local authorities as a prerequisite.

In many mining areas, the degradation of agricultural and natural resources and the lack of alternative income and job opportunities have drawn an increasing number of local villagers into the ASM sector. Since this work entails health risks and further environmental degradation, increasing effort by Lao authorities is required to provide better farmland rehabilitation for agricultural livelihoods, as well as the upgrading of people’s skills to open up alternative job opportunities. As women and children involved in informal mining are particularly vulnerable, more political attention to the precarious livelihoods of ASM communities is the key to mitigate the social impact of mining in Laos.

ISEAS Perspective 2021/44, 15 April 2021

REFERENCES

Baird, I.G., Noseworthy, W., Tuyen, N.P., Ha, L.T. and Fox, J. (2019), Land grabs and labour: Vietnamese workers on rubber plantations in southern Laos. Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography, 40: 50-70. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjtg.12261

Barney, K. 2009. Laos and the Making of a ‘Relational’ Resource Frontier. Geographical Journal 175/2: 146-59.

Barney, K. 2018. Reassembling informal gold-mining for development and sustainability? Opportunities and limits to formalisation in India, Indonesia and Laos. In: K. Lahiri-Dutt (ed.). Between the Plough and the Pick: Informal, artisanal and small-scale mining in the contemporary world, pp. 335-370. Canberra: ANU Press.

Cole, R. 2021. Smiling to fight: Waiting out the pandemic in Laos. New Mandala, 10 March 2021. https://www.newmandala.org/smiling-to-fight-waiting-out-the-pandemic-in-laos/

Earth Systems and BGR 2019. Impacts of Tin Mining in the Hinboun District, Lao PDR. Vientiane: Ministry of Energy and Mines.

Hernando, P. and Takashi Yonemura 2020. Transforming the Resource Sector in Lao PDR. AMRO Blog, 26 August 2020. https://www.amro-asia.org/transforming-the-resource-sector-in-lao-pdr/

Lahiri-Dutt, K. 2014. Extracting Peasants from the Fields: Rushing for a Livelihood? ARI Working Paper Series, No. 216. Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore.

Lahiri-Dutt, K., K. Alexander, and C. Insouvanh. 2014. Informal Mining in Livelihood Diversification: Mineral dependence and rural communities in Lao PDR. South East Asia Research 22/1: 103–22.

Lu, J. and O. Schönweger 2019. Great expectations: Chinese investment in Laos and the myth of empty land. Territory, Politics, Governance 7/1: 61-78.

Menon, J. and P. Warr. 2013. The Lao Economy: Capitalizing on Natural Resource Exports. ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 330. <https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/30138/economics-wp330-lao-economy.pdf>

Molland, S. 2017. Migration and Mobility in Laos. In: V. Bouté and V. Pholsena (eds.), Changing Lives in Laos – Society, Politics, and Culture in a Post-Socialist State, pp. 327-349. Singapore: NUS Press.

Moretti, D. and N. Garrett. 2018. Artisanal and small-scale mining governance: The ‘emerging issue’ of ‘unregulated mining’ in Lao PDR. In: K. Lahiri-Dutt (ed.). Between the Plough and the Pick: Informal, artisanal and small-scale mining in the contemporary world, pp. 311-334. Canberra: ANU Press.

Mottet, É. 2013. Au Laos, la nouvelle aventure minière pourra-t-elle se dérouler sans conflits? Les Cahiers d’Outre-Mer 262. <http://journals.openedition.org/com/6862>

Oulavanh Keovilignavong 2019. Mining governance dilemma and impacts: a case of gold mining in Phu-Hae, Lao PDR. Resources Policy, 61: 141-150. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.02.002

Shoemaker, B. And W. Robichaud (eds.) 2019. Dead in the Water: Global lessons from the World Bank’s model hydropower project in Laos. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.

Tappe, O. 2019. Patterns of Precarity: Historical Trajectories of Vietnamese Labour Mobility. TRaNS: Trans-Regional and -National Studies of Southeast Asia 7/1: 19-42.

Tappe, O. 2020. Assessing the Micro-Macro Dimension of Integration/Disintegration Processes: The Case of Tin Mining in Laos. CRISEA Working Paper on Macro-Micro Dialogue Studies. <http://crisea.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Del-5.3-Working-Paper-Macro-Micro-Dialogue-Studies.pdf>

World Bank 2020. Lao Economic Monitor, June 2020. <http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/962271591369090988/Lao-Economic-Monitor-June-2020-final.pdf>


ENDNOTES

[1] National Assembly of the Lao PDR, Law on Minerals, 20 December 2011. http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/lao141172.pdf

[2] Ibid.

[3] The Nation, 28 March 2016, Who’s killing foreigners in northern Laos? https://www.nationthailand.com/opinion/30282715

[4] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2020/07/29/egps-launches-new-emergency-relief-response-for-artisanal-and-small-scale-mining-communities-impacted-by-covid-19

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2021/43 “Placate the Young and Control Online Discourse: The Vietnamese State’s Tightrope” by Dien Nguyen An Luong

 

How have the authorities in Vietnam reconciled the task of controlling the online narrative with the need to placate a generation whose daily life is shaped by the Internet and social media? In this picture, a man checks his mobile phone while waiting with his dog in Hanoi on March 10, 2021. Picture: Manan VATSYAYANA, AFP.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • How to control cyberspace in a country that boasts around 72 million social media users without alienating the growing cadres of Internet-savvy youths is a daunting challenge for Vietnamese authorities.
  • 2013 was a watershed year that shaped how the authorities walk a very fine line between accommodating social-savvy youths and controlling online discourse.
  • The challenge for many Internet users is not that their voices are censored but are drowned out in a cacophony of public grievances on social media.
  • The Milk Tea Alliancehas laid bare a stark reality: What has bonded the youth across the region and galvanised them into action also epitomises the major concerns of Vietnamese authorities.
  • Unlike China, Vietnam has not been able to muster enough political and technological resources to craft sophisticated campaigns to boost youth nationalism. This gap is all the more potent online.

* Dien Nguyen An Luong is Visiting Fellow with the Media, Technology and Society Programme of the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. A journalist with significant experience as managing editor at Vietnam’s top newsrooms, his work has also appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, the Guardian, South China Morning Post, and other publications.

INTRODUCTION

Vietnam’s top echelons have indicated that the task of controlling cyberspace has never been more crucial.[1] But how to do so in a country that boasts 72 million social media users[2] without alienating the growing cadres of Internet-savvy youths is a daunting question.

In fact, such a dual challenge is nothing new to Vietnamese authorities. It started when the Arab Spring uprisings – fuelled by social media – broke out a decade ago, raising the spectre of a similar movement in Vietnam.[3] At that time, Vietnamese leaders had to confront what in the first place appeared to be a Hobson’s choice: Should the spirit of the Arab Spring be used as a rationale for catering to the people’s urgent needs or a pretext to tighten the screws on the Internet and social media?

It turned out that Vietnam afforded to go both ways at the same time, ushering in an era in which the authorities constantly walked a very fine line between accommodating social media-savvy youths and controlling online discourse. Nowhere was this dynamic more manifest than in the watershed year of 2013. Vietnam has ever since then been finetuning its tactics to keep up with the helter-skelter growth of social media.

A pattern emerges: Citing the standard line of the ruling Communist party, the authorities first identify what they perceive as threats that social media poses to political stability, both outside and inside Vietnam. Then they use those threats to rationalise reining in the online sphere. At the same time, the authorities also increasingly look to social media as a useful yardstick to gauge public grievances and, wherever appropriate, take remedial actions to mollify the masses.[4]

Over the past several years, the continued intent of Vietnamese leaders on winning over youths and shaping nationalism in them has taken place against the backdrop of social media-fuelled youth movements besieging Taiwan, Hong Kong or Thailand. But meanwhile, in what has been called the weaponisation of social media, many Southeast Asian governments, such as The Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar or Vietnam, have also sought to exploit such Western platforms as a valuable proxy for authoritarian control.[5]

It is in that context that several major questions emerge: How have Vietnam’s leaders honed their message, particularly in the online sphere, to appeal to the young? How have the authorities reconciled the task of controlling the online narrative with the need to placate a generation whose daily life is shaped by the Internet and social media?

And perhaps most importantly, Vietnam has been successful in tapping into nationalism to coalesce the public around the fight against the coronavirus.[6] But will the authorities be able to continue leveraging such nationalism in the post-pandemic era?

AN INCREASINGLY BLURRY LINE

A comic book featuring rhyming phrases of Vietnamese youth slang was reinstated after its editors took out some “violent or politically sensitive” illustrations that censors flagged as grounds for yanking it from stores a year earlier.[7] The Central Communist Youth Union commissioned a Vietnamese rapper to compose a song to convey the content of a youth resolution.[8] Vietnam’s then-Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung for the first time instructed the Central Youth Union to set up a homegrown social networking site that could rival Facebook and engage the young.[9]

Those back-to-back developments all took place in 2013 as the authorities stepped up efforts in an explicit gesture to attract youthful eyeballs. The context was not hard to fathom: At that time, Vietnam was experiencing the rare phenomenon of a “golden population” with two or more persons of working age for every person of dependent age (under 15 or 60 and over), meaning it was endowed with a large population of young people.[10] The challenge was also obvious: Harnessing the energy and dynamism of the young would be synonymous with bridging the yawning gap between a leadership line-up who came of age at a time of prolonged wars, and a generation that had never been through any war.

But there was a more significant underlying pull factor: Witnessing the dramatic events unfolding in Egypt and Tunisia, Vietnam’s leaders could have fretted over the ripple effect of social media that could trigger Arab-style uprisings in a country that prizes political stability above all else.[11] To aggravate their concern, a forecasting model of non-violent uprisings for 2011 had also ranked Vietnam fifth among the top 40 countries where a non-violent rebellion “would most likely occur at some point”.[12] A handful of activists tried to capitalise on this pretext to call for an Arab Spring-style uprising in Vietnam, a move that triggered heavy-handed responses from the authorities, including arrests.[13] But against that backdrop, the Middle East situation elicited lacklustre attention from Vietnamese youths.[14] Still, it would be a safe bet to assume that regimes outside the Arab world, particularly authoritarian ones like Vietnam, would consider those popular uprisings as a warning, leading the authorities to act in order to avert a similar revolution.

This is the context for which 2013 is marked as a critical juncture explaining how Vietnam justifies deployed censorship strategies to achieve the dual goal of maintaining its grip on online discourse without losing touch with the new generation.

In a blistering 2013 opinion piece in the Communist Magazine,[15] a Vietnamese military official warned about the prospect of social media becoming a conduit for “hostile forces” to coalesce young people around what was labelled as anti-government movements. The article pulled no punches: “With these activities, the hostile forces will promote anti-government ideology among netizens, rally forces and establish opposition organisations to lead protests and provoke riots and insurrection against local administrations in certain localities and then take it as a reason for armed intervention to overthrow the political regime.”

It was in 2013 that Vietnam for the first time acknowledged publicly that it had deployed groups known as “public opinion shapers” to spread views in defence of the state against detractors or “hostile forces”.[16] The crackdown on social media also hit a crescendo in 2013, during the start of the second term for Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, crystalising in the implementation of Decree 72. Broadly worded and subject to various interpretations, the decree criminalises the sharing of news stories on various social networks[17] and bans “the use of Internet services and online information to oppose the Socialist Republic of Vietnam; threaten the national security, social order, and safety; sabotage the ‘national fraternity’; arouse animosity among races and religions; or contradict national traditions, among other acts.” It is hard to downplay the evergreen significance of Decree 72. It has served as the oft-cited legal groundwork for Facebook and Google’s YouTube to restrict or take down content at the behest of the Vietnamese authorities.[18] Since 2017, Facebook and Google’s YouTube, the two most popular social media platforms in Vietnam,[19] have publicly released the number of items that Vietnamese authorities have asked them to restrict access to. According to both platforms, the majority of the restricted or removed items were related to “government criticism” (Chart 1) or ones that “oppose the Communist Party and the Government of Vietnam” (Chart 2).

As part of the fear-based censorship, considered Vietnam’s “key strategy of digital governance,”[20] the authorities enacted a raft of laws and regulations designed to solidify the legal scaffolding of Internet controls. It is Decree 72 that has paved the way for other relevant regulations in the era of swelling social media (Table 1).

But the stability of authoritarian regimes is also contingent on three pillars that shed light on different approaches to social media: repression, legitimation and co-optation.[21] Responsiveness and legitimacy are all the more crucial to the resilience of Vietnam’s leadership. Given that, netizens have still had some wiggle room to continue testing the waters of where the red line within Vietnam’s online sphere lies. But on the other hand, the authorities have also been able to bend the implementation of such a mixture to their own will, many times leaving Internet users in the dark about when toleration, responsiveness or repression would be enforced. Past and recent crackdowns on social media in Vietnam have shown repression taking place mostly when Internet users appeared to broach issues such as political multilateralism, improved human rights, freedom of speech, Vietnam’s dealings with China or regime change. This grey area has since set off an ongoing cat-and-mouse game between the censors and Internet users.

AN ONLINE TUG-OF-WAR

The post-2013 period saw both the youths and the authorities scrambling to make the most of their unlikely alliance with social media – chiefly Facebook – to plow ahead with their own agendas. For Vietnam’s youth, it was about having their grievances, which centred on environmental concern and government’s mishandling of bread-and-butter issues, heard and addressed. Such grievances could be vented against a local move to build a cable car into what is billed as Vietnam’s cave kingdom, a plan to fell nearly 7,000 trees in the capital of Hanoi, or a calamitous fish kill along the country’s central coastline. In such movements, the challenge for Internet users was not that their voices were censored but it was about ensuring that they were not drowned out in a cacophony of public grievances in the online sphere.

For the authorities, it was about trying to appear as responsive to public sentiment online as they could. But not without some caveats: Collective action or social unrest, their bête noire, could arise from the fact that criticism of the government’s policies in a certain area quickly spreads to another, perpetuating a spiralling cycle of public disenchantment. Vietnam’s online movements – most of them initiated, coalesced and sustained by youths during the 2014-2016 period – have revolved around that dynamic, which remains relevant today (Table 2).

In 2015, then-Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung publicly admitted that it was impossible to ban social media platforms and that the government should instead embrace them to spread its own message.[28] This landmark development was instrumental to youth-led online movements. But on the other side of the spectrum, the drafting process for Vietnam’s Cyber-Security Law was mooted as early as July 2016, just right on the heels of the Formosa protests.[29] That is not to mention the official debut of Vietnam’s 10,000-strong military cyber unit a year later to counteract any “wrongful opinions” about the regime and protect it from “toxic information”.[30] These turning points were emblematic of how realistic, pragmatic and opportunistic Vietnamese politicians were in striking an increasingly delicate balance between placating the young and manipulating the online sphere.

MALAISES THAT LEAD TO UPRISINGS

The passage of the Cyber-Security Law in 2018 opened a new era that has seen Vietnam’s social media landscape coloured by several major factors: (i) a growing body of evidence that the role of social media as a force for democratisation has been somewhat misunderstood, mischaracterised, or even overhyped[31]; (ii) the authorities’ fixation on curbing anti-state content online; and (iii) Vietnam’s relative success in containing the Covid-19 pandemic, which has enabled the leadership to earn the exceptional level of public support that it had been craving.[32]

While some observers have talked up its role, social media alone could not have fanned the Arab Spring uprisings and the like.[33] As past studies have shown: There were other longstanding socio-economic reasons that fuelled the uprisings such as unemployment, poverty or growing inequalities. Those pull factors, coupled with pent-up grievances exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, indeed played a crucial role in triggering ongoing protests across Southeast Asia.[34] That appears not to be the case in Vietnam, at least for now. Aside from being able to rein in the pandemic, political stability has continued to be a selling point for top leaders.[35] Vietnam’s economy has remained resilient, standing out among the few in the world notching up positive growth.[36]

But as a stern reminder to Vietnam’s leaders that it would be risky to let their guard down, the Milk Tea Alliance, a social media-fuelled youth movement spanning Taiwan, Hong Kong and Thailand, has kept evolving to spur young people across Asia to rise up.[37] The movement has laid bare a stark reality: What has bonded youths across the region and galvanised them into action also epitomises the major concerns of Vietnamese authorities. Chief among them are:

  • The movement has rammed home a consistent message that it is seeking to push back against autocratic governments, such as the Chinese model after which  Vietnam is believed to have modelled.[38]
  • Social media has played an increasingly crucial role in enabling activists to coalesce networks online and translate them into real life actions.[39]
  • Those movements attest to youths’ growing disenchantment, further driving a wedge between them and the government, and undermining the legitimacy of the latter.[40]

In a low key yet symbolic move, the People’s Police newspaper, an organ of Vietnam’s Ministry of Public Security, ran an article in February that warned about the dangers of having “depoliticised” armed forces independent of the ruling Communist party.[41] Citing the current political chaos driven by the military coup in Myanmar, the article delivered a scathing indictment of “subversive elements and hostile forces” who have sought to plot “vicious conspiracies” to neuter the state’s leadership role in the army, turning it into a force that “betrays the interests of the Party and the people.” Another article of the same newspaper in late March also castigated external forces for capitalising on the Myanmar crisis to lure young people into taking part in “subversive activities” such as “online colour revolutions” that would pave the way for “street movements”.[42]

Those articles appeared at a time when the protest movement in Myanmar had been able to garner widespread support from the Milk Tea Alliance.[43] It encapsulated the entrenched concern and official line of Vietnamese authorities that political chaos and social unrest could end up opening the floodgates of youth-led movements that challenge the legitimacy of the regime. But it was still just the first baby step in Vietnam’s playbook. As already mentioned, the next challenge is how to win over the youths while at the same time keeping close tabs on cyberspace.

Vietnam is not short of political rhetoric and exhortation on youth patriotism. Like their Chinese counterparts, Vietnamese leaders are probably well aware that in addition to the rising standards of living, nationalism remains a crucial part of the regime’s legitimacy.[44] But unlike Beijing,[45] Hanoi has not been able to muster enough political and technological muscle to craft sophisticated campaigns aimed at boosting youth nationalism. This gap is all the more potent in the online sphere. The reasons are not hard to pin down: A “national Internet” meant for blocking of Western social media platforms has given China a carte blanche to shape a narrative at its will.[46] That has also bred a generation of Chinese youths who have come of age without Facebook, Google’s YouTube, or Twitter.[47]

That may help explain why Vietnam has kept beating the drum for building domestic social media platforms that could compete with or even elbow out their foreign counterparts.[48] But here is another Catch-22 for the authorities: Social media was built into a mechanism that incentivises click-baiting, sensationalism and fake news – all designed to increase public attention and engagement. Vietnamese censors will not want to make their homegrown social media network another fertile ground for “wrongful opinions”, fake news, or “toxic information”, the very rationale for them to control the Internet. But if Vietnam seeks to curb such elements by creating a new social network, people – the young in particular – are likely to switch it off.

Still, there has been a perhaps inadvertent edge for Vietnam: The leadership has been able to gain exceptional public kudos for pushing back the coronavirus. The Covid-19 pandemic also provides an illuminating case study of how Vietnam’s public communications strategies succeeded in making the most of social media platforms to reach out to the public – young people included – and enlist their support.[49] In the State of Southeast Asia 2021 survey done by ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute,[50] including academics, government officials and business people – respondents from Vietnam registered their strongest approval of their government’s handling of the pandemic. That success has been key to boosting patriotism in a population of nearly 100 million. In an attempt to shed light on this dynamic, we generate relevant keywords on the topics of Covid 19-era patriotism (Appendix 1) and the pro-youth movement sentiment (Appendix 2) and analyse the discussion on them in Vietnam’s online sphere since late July 2020. That was the time when the second coronavirus wave hit Vietnam, and the youth movement was gaining traction in Thailand.[51] Online discussions on Covid-era patriotism overwhelmingly dwarfed the pro-youth movement during the corresponding period (Chart 3).

This is further exemplified by social media activity over time, where conversations on pro-youth movement sentiment averages only 6 posts at any given time, compared with 96 from the Covid-era patriotism topic (Table 3).


Such positive sentiment dovetails with other findings of pre-pandemic surveys. During a recent national online exchange, the top leader of Vietnams’ Central Youth Union cited a past survey as showing that nearly 94 per cent of Vietnamese youths said they were “patriotic” and had “national pride.”[52] According to data from the 2018 Asian Barometer Survey conducted by the Academia Sinica and National Taiwan University, around 90 per cent of Vietnamese polled said they trusted the Communist party of Vietnam and the government at least somewhat.[53]

But despite such a momentum, Vietnamese authorities are all poised to confront a vexing question: What’s next in the post-pandemic period?

THE $64,000 QUESTION

Even if and although the prospect of a social media-fuelled youth movement may remain pretty distant in Vietnam, how to best appeal to youths remains an urgent task and a thorny question for the authorities. The Next Generation survey conducted last year by the British Council[54] showed that three in four (78 per cent) Vietnamese youths polled said they had “no engagement” with the country’s politics. Around five in nine (55 per cent) expressed concern about “the lack of any opportunity to have their voice heard.” If there is a venue to do so, it is social media and close circles of friends and family, according to the same survey.

With the mainstream media haemorrhaging readership to the online sphere, the authorities engaging youths just through slogans and banners or their propaganda playbook remaining riddled with humdrum, ideology-laden language, is likely to be a turnoff. This is where the authorities may find themselves caught between a rock and a hard place: If they keep making the most of the digital space to reach out to the youths, any future move that seeks to tighten cyberspace could trigger a popular backlash.

In that context, it remains to be seen how Vietnam can afford to rationalise any further controls on social media. How they manage to do so without estranging the digital-savvy youth is another intriguing question.

ISEAS Perspective 2021/43, 14 April 2021


ENDNOTES

[1] Dien Nguyen An Luong, “Cyberspace: Vietnam’s Next Propaganda Battleground?”. Fulcrum, 25 February 2021. https://fulcrum.sg/cyberspace-vietnams-next-propaganda-battleground/

[2] Hootsuite & We Are Social (2021), “Digital 2021: Vietnam”. https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2021-vietnam

[3] Ben Bland, “Vietnam: a question of balance”. Financial Times, 24 November 2011, https://www.ft.com/content/0ae832b0-15e1-11e1-a691-00144feabdc0

[4] James Borton, “Vietnam’s Social Media Shaping New Environmentalism”, Internews, 5 July 2017, https://internews.org/news/vietnams-social-media-shaping-new-environmentalism

[5] Ronald Deibert. “The Road to Digital Unfreedom: Three Painful Truths About Social Media”. Journal of Democracy 30, no. 1 (2019): 25–39.

[6] Minh Vu and Bich T. Tran, “The Secret to Vietnam’s COVID-19 Response Success”. The Diplomat, 18 April 2020. https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/the-secret-to-vietnams-covid-19-response-success

[7] “Vietnam’s awakening youth circumvent censorship”. Associated Press, 2 February 2012. https://ktar.com/story/221702/vietnams-awakening-youth-circumvent-censorship/

[8] “Bridging a war and peace gap”. Thanh Nien News, 3 April 2013. http://www.thanhniennews.com/society/bridging-a-war-and-peace-gap-2942.html

[9] “Vietnamese prime minister calls for young people’s social network”. Inside Asia, 14 May 2013, https://www.insideasiatours.com/southeast-asia/news/3140/vietnamese-prime-minister-calls-for-young-peoples-social-network

[10] Rafael Nam, John Ruwitch, “Consumers driving Vietnam into ‘golden age’”. Reuters, 27 May 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-frontiers-vietnam-consumers-idUSTRE64Q08S20100527

[11] Ben Bland, “Vietnam: a question of balance”. Financial Times, 24 November 2011, https://www.ft.com/content/0ae832b0-15e1-11e1-a691-00144feabdc0

[12] Long S. Le, “Uprisings in the Air? Forecasting Political Instability in Vietnam”. Global Asia, June 2012 (Vol.7 No.2). https://www.globalasia.org/v7no2/feature/uprisings-in-the-air-forecasting-political-instability-in-vietnam_long-s-le

[13] “Vietnam activist Nguyen Dan Que held for uprising call”. BBC News, 28 February 2011. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-12595261

[14] Yen Duong, “The Political Apathy of Vietnamese Youth”. New Naratif, 1 December 2017. https://newnaratif.com/journalism/the-political-apathy-of-vietnamese-youth [15] Nguyen Hong Quan, “‘Arab Spring’ inspires thoughts about social networks management”. Communist Review. 7 October 2013. http://english.tapchicongsan.org.vn/Home/Politics/2013/836/Arab-Spring-inspires-thoughts-about-social-networks-management.aspx

[16] Nga Pham, “Vietnam Admits Deploying Bloggers to Support Government”. BBC News, 12 January 2013. https://www.bbc.com/news/ world-asia-20982985

[17] Mong Palatino, “Decree 72: Vietnam’s Confusing Internet Law”, The Diplomat, 8 August 2013, https://thediplomat.com/2013/08/decree-72-vietnams-confusing-internet-law.

[18] “‘Let Us Breathe!’ Censorship And Criminalization Of Online Expression In Viet Nam”, Amnesty International, p.20, 1 December 2020, https://www.amnesty.org/download/Documents/ASA4132432020ENGLISH.pdf

[19] Hootsuite & We Are Social (2021), “Digital 2021: Vietnam”.

[20] Giang Nguyen-Thu, “Vietnamese Media Going Social: Connectivism, Collectivism, and Conservatism”. The Journal of Asian Studies 77, no. 4 (2018): 895–908.

[21] Johannes Gerschewski. The three pillars of stability: legitimation, repression, and co-optation in autocratic regimes. Democratization, 2013, vol. 20, no 1, p. 13-38.

[22] Dien Luong, “In Facebook, young Vietnamese see an ally”. VnExpress International, 2 February 2017. https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/in-facebook-young-vietnamese-see-an-ally-3535044.html

[23] Chris Humphrey, “In Vietnam, cable car plans continue to threaten important cave system”. Mongabay, 24 July 2018. https://news.mongabay.com/2018/07/in-vietnam-cable-car-plans-continue-to-threaten-important-cave-system

[24] Michael Peel, “Hanoi residents mobilise to save city’s cherished trees”. Financial Times, 27 March 2015, https://www.ft.com/content/54d07f2a-d462-11e4-8be8-00144fea
b7de

[25] Helen Clark, “Hanoi Citizens Protest Tree-Felling Plan”, The Diplomat, 25 March 2015, https://thediplomat.com/2015/03/hanoi-citizens-protest-tree-felling-plan

[26] My Pham and Mai Nguyen, “Vietnam says recovery from Formosa industrial disaster could take a decade”, Reuters, 24 December 2016, https://www.reuters
.com/article/us-vietnam-environment-formosa-plastics/vietnam-says-recovery-from-formosa-industrial-disaster-could-take-a-decade-idUSKBN14C1F5

[27] Mai Nguyen, “Formosa unit offers $500 million for causing toxic disaster in Vietnam”, Reuters, 30 June 2016, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vietnam-environment/formosa-unit-offers-500-million-for-causing-toxic-disaster-in-vietnam-idUSKCN0ZG1F5

[28] “Vietnamese leader says banning social media sites impossible”, The Associated Press, 16 January 2015, https://federalnewsnetwork.com/technology-main/2015/01/vietnamese-leader-says-banning-social-media-sites-impossible

[29] Trinh Huu Long, “Vietnam’s Cybersecurity Draft Law: Made in China?”. The Vietnamese, 8 November 2017, https://www.thevietnamese.org/2017/11/vietnams-cyber-security-draft-law-made-in-china

[30] James Hookway, “Introducing Force 47, Vietnam’s New Weapon Against Online Dissent”. The Wall Street Journal, 31 December 2017, https://www.wsj. com/articles/introducing-force-47-vietnams-new-weapon-against-online-dissent-1514721606

[31] Bryan H. Druzin and Jessica Li, “The Power of the Keystroke: Is Social Media the Radical Democratizing Force We’ve Been Led to Believe it is?”, Harvard Human Rights Journal, 1, Vol. 28 (2015): 1–6, https://harvardhrj.com/2015/02/the-power-of-the-keystroke-is-social-media-the-radical-democratizing-force-weve-been-led-to-believe-it-is

[32] Tran Le Thuy, “Vietnam is fighting Covid without pitting economic growth against public health”. The Guardian, 20 October 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/20/vietnam-covid-economic-growth-public-health-coronavirus

[33] Gayo-Avello, Daniel, Social Media and Authoritarianism (2015), https://ssrn.com/abstract=2878705 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2878705

[34] Robinson, Macan-Markar, and Turton, “Thai protests build as pandemic fuels unrest across Southeast Asia” [35] Phuong Pham, “Nguyen Phu Trong: The Best Choice to Lead Vietnam’s Communist Party”. The Diplomat, 8 February 2021. https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/nguyen-phu-trong-the-best-choice-to-lead-vietnams-communist-party/

[36] Yen Nee Lee, “This is Asia’s top-performing economy in the Covid pandemic — it’s not China”. CNBC, 28 January 2021. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/28/vietnam-is-asias-top-performing-economy-in-2020-amid-covid-pandemic.html

[37] Laignee Barron, “‘We Share the Ideals of Democracy.’ How the Milk Tea Alliance Is Brewing Solidarity Among Activists in Asia and Beyond”. TIME, 28 October 2020. https://time.com/5904114/milk-tea-alliance

[38] Timothy Mclaughlin, “How Milk Tea Became an Anti-China Symbol”. The Atlantic, 13 October 2020. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/10/milk-tea-alliance-anti-china/616658/

[39] Patpicha Tanakasempipat, “‘We’re in this together’: Milk Tea Alliance rallies against Myanmar coup across Asia”. Sydney Morning Herald, 1 March 2021. https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/milk-tea-alliance-activists-across-asia-hold-rallies-against-myanmar-coup-20210301-p576lc.html [40] Jitsiree Thongnoi, “Milk Tea Alliance: are young Thais turning on China over Hong Kong?”. South China Morning Post, 14 June 2020. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3088901/milk-tea-alliance-are-young-thais-turning-china-over-hong-kong

[41] Nguyễn Sơn, “‘Phi chính trị hóa lực lượng vũ trang’ – vấn đề nhìn từ Myanmar” (“Depoliticizing the armed forces” – a perspective on Myanmar). Công an nhân dân, 20 February 2021, http://cand.com.vn/Chong-dien-bien-hoa-binh/Phi-chinh-tri-hoa-luc-luong-vu-trang-van-de-nhin-tu-Myanmar-631398

[42] Tran Anh Tu, Pham Duy, ““Cách mạng màu online” và thủ đoạn dựng hình mẫu ngược!” (Online color revolutions and ploys to create a reverse model). Cong An Nhan Dan, 29 March 2021. http://cand.com.vn/Chong-dien-bien-hoa-binh/Cach-mang-mau-online-va-thu-doan-dung-hinh-mau-nguoc-635492/

[43] Jessie Lau, “Myanmar’s Protest Movement Finds Friends in the Milk Tea Alliance”. The Diplomat, 13 February 2021. https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/myanmars-protest-movement-finds-friends-in-the-milk-tea-alliance/

[44] Pu, X. Jessica Chen Weiss, Powerful Patriots: Nationalist Protest in China’s Foreign Relations . J OF CHIN POLIT SCI 21, 501–502 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-016-9440-0

[45] Liza Lin, “Xi’s China Crafts Campaign to Boost Youth Patriotism”. Wall Street Journal, 30 December 2020. https://www.wsj.com/articles/xi-china-campaign-youth-patriotism-propaganda-11609343255

[46] Dien Luong, “Vietnam Wants to Control Social Media? Too Late”. New York Times, 30 November 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/30/opinion/vietnam-social-media-china.html

[47] Li Yuan, “A Generation Grows Up in China Without Google, Facebook or Twitter”. New York Times, 6 August 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/06/technology/china-generation-blocked-internet.html

[48] Dien Nguyen An Luong, “Vietnam and Social Media: The Clock Is Ticking on Tiktok”. ISEAS Commentary, 27 August 2020. /media/commentaries/vietnam-and-social-media-the-clock-is-ticking-on-tiktok/

[49] Hong Kong Nguyen and Tung Manh Ho, “Vietnam’s COVID-19 Strategy: Mobilizing Public Compliance Via Accurate and Credible Communication”, ISEAS Perspective, no. 2020/69, 25 June 2020 [50] Seah, S. et al., The State of Southeast Asia: 2021 (Singapore: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, 2021). /wp-content/uploads/2021/01/The-State-of-SEA-2021-v2.pdf

[51] Helen Regan and Kocha Olarn, “Thailand protest movement puts country’s youth on collision course with military-backed establishment. CNN, 24n July 2020. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/23/asia/thailand-anti-government-protests-intl-hnk/index.html

[52] “Bí thư thứ nhất T.Ư Đoàn đối thoại với thanh thiếu nhi” (First Secretary of Ho Chi Minh Communist Youth Union interact with young people). Thanh Nien, 16 March 2021. https://thanhnien.vn/gioi-tre/bi-thu-thu-nhat-tu-doan-doi-thoai-voi-thanh-thieu-nhi-1354559.html

[53] Paul Schuler, “Vietnam in 2020: Controlling COVID and Dissent”. Asian Survey (2021) 61 (1): 90–98. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2021.61.1.90

[54] “Next Generation Vietnam”. British Council, August 2020. https://www.britishcouncil.org/sites/default/files/l045_next_generation_vietnam_final_web.pdf

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2021/42 “The Milk Tea Alliance and China’s Power Gap in Southeast Asia” by Quinton Temby

 

Undercurrents of anti-Chinese sentiment are not new to protest in Southeast Asia but appear to track popular anxiety about China’s rising strategic power. Here, a student holds a placard during a Milk Tea Alliance anti-China protest outside the Chinese embassy in Bangkok on October 1, 2020. Photo: Romeo GACAD, AFP.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Following the February 1 coup, Myanmar became the latest country to be included in the online pan-Asian pro-democracy movement known as the Milk Tea Alliance.
  • The Milk Tea movement began as a whimsical internet meme in 2020, channelling dissent against China’s authoritarianism by youth activists in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Thailand—countries where sweet milk tea drinks are popular. 
  • The alliance may presage further memetic movements against regional authoritarianism, as internet penetration extends across Southeast Asia, as internet usage intensifies due to the pandemic, and as activists find it easier to forge transnational bonds.
  • Myanmar today fits a regional pattern in which protest movements in different countries, triggered by different events, feature an undercurrent of criticism of China’s growing influence. Protests in Thailand against the monarchy and military, and labour rights protests in Indonesia are driven by local concerns but incorporate anti-China or anti-Chinese sentiments.
  • Undercurrents of anti-Chinese sentiment are not new to protest in Southeast Asia but appear to track popular anxiety about China’s rising strategic power. As governments in Southeast Asia are keen to benefit from Chinese trade and investment, the emerging elite-popular divide over China policy leaves China with a gap between its hard and soft power in the region, making it vulnerable to populist politics.

* Quinton Temby is Visiting Fellow in the Regional, Social and Cultural Studies Programme, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. He was formerly Visiting Fellow at the Department of Political and Social Change (PSC) at the Australian National University’s (ANU) Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs. He completed his PhD thesis on the rise of global jihadism in Southeast Asia at the ANU in 2017.

INTRODUCTION

In 2020, two very different protest movements gathered force in Thailand and Indonesia. In Thailand, activists calling themselves the Free Youth Movement launched street demonstrations challenging the legitimacy of the military rule of General Prayuth Chan-o-cha and calling for reform of the monarchy.[1] In Indonesia, street protests and clashes with police across the country were triggered by the passage of a controversial Omnibus “job creation” law opposed by labour unions as a threat to worker rights. Although the Indonesian protests were more short-lived than the Thai, both movements had a revolutionary edge as they touched on old taboos: the monarchy in Thailand and class struggle in Indonesia.[2]

A striking but less obvious feature the protests had in common is that they both channelled undercurrents of anxiety about China’s rising power in Southeast Asia. In Thailand, activists have come to associate the Prayuth government with authoritarianism in China as Bangkok has aligned itself increasingly closer with Beijing. Thai activists, as Jasmine Chia observes, share pro- or anti-China articles online as code for commenting on the Thai regime.[3] As the Thai protests arose alongside the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, Thai and Hong Kong activists networked with each other on Twitter and other platforms. Drawing in Taiwanese activists also, the outcome of this networking is the Milk Tea Alliance, a movement that began as a meme that symbolises solidarity among anti-China activists with an ironic appreciation of their common interest in sweet milk tea drinks. Although the Milk Tea Alliance may sound like a mere internet joke, it is a clever use of memetic warfare to forge links across a region that is so diverse it often defies collective action—especially in the ASEAN context. 

In Indonesia, the omnibus law activists targeted first the Jokowi government and then the national parliament. But as with other recent protests in Indonesia, there was an anti-China thread to the events if one knew where to look online. Some online activists perceived the law as a gift to foreign investors which would allow companies to contract out employment to workers from China. The Chinese migrant worker force is important to president Joko Widodo’s infrastructure programme but it is a regular target of opposition criticism. On one level, the discourse on China and ethnic Chinese in Indonesia shares little in common with the Milk Tea Alliance. In Indonesia, sentiment critical of China as a state, à la the Milk Tea Alliance, merges more readily with old racial prejudices against local ethnic Chinese. But this is slowly changing. Sentiment in Indonesia increasingly reflect anxieties seen elsewhere in the region over the rise of China as a political and economic force.

Growing anti-Chinese sentiment in Southeast Asia is a general enough phenomenon to receive recent cover-article treatment in The Economist.  The magazine’s February 27 issue described the region as “China’s backyard”, making the obligatory historical reference to “tributaries”.[4] Discontent in The Philippines centres on Chinese-run gambling and vice operations. While in Myanmar, even if the balance of evidence suggests that China did not back the military coup—not least because the government of Aung San Suu Kyi was relatively pro-Beijing—mere impressions were enough to add an anti-Chinese edge to the popular protest. At their best, these impressions led to concern that China might assist the Myanmar military’s cyber warfare capabilities.[5] At their worst, they manifested in dangerous misinformation circulating on Twitter and Facebook claiming to show images of Chinese troops deployed on Burmese streets. The misinformation was an echo of a similar notorious false meme that went viral during the 2019 post-election violence in Indonesia.

Across the region, there are indications that a gap has opened between elite and popular opinion on the issue of China. Even prior to the pandemic, China’s declining favourability ratings in the region were apparent. According to the 2019 Pew Global Attitudes Survey conducted in mid-2019, the number of Indonesians who gave China a “favorable” rating fell to 36 per cent, a 17 per cent fall matched only by the decline in Sweden and Canada—countries both mired in “hostage diplomacy” crises.[6] A more recent Pew survey, covering South Korea, Japan and a number of Western countries, describes negative evaluations of China reaching “historic highs” following the coronavirus pandemic.[7]

The elite-popular opinion gap points to a more structural problem for China in Southeast Asia. While Southeast Asian nations seek to gain economically from China’s rise, and China’s rise translates to hard power vis-a-vis the governing elite of Southeast Asia, China remains vulnerable at the popular level. In effect, China suffers a gap between its hard and soft power in the region. China’s power gap makes it vulnerable over the long-term to populist politics in Southeast Asia, especially in Indonesia, where anti-Chinese sentiment feeds into opposition Islamist narratives. Although newly emergent, social media-driven anti-Chinese populism already presents a challenge to China’s influence in the region. 

MILK TEA ALLIANCE

The Milk Tea Alliance is the latest example of an internet meme that has become a social movement. The meme was created amid an online incident involving a relatively apolitical Thai-Chinese actor, Vachirawit Chiva-aree, better known as Bright. Bright is the star of a TV drama “2gether”, popular across markets in Asia, including China. In April 2020, Bright naïvely liked an image on Twitter that referred to Hong Kong as a country. In response, Chinese nationalists online targeted him and his show with criticism and calls for a boycott. Bright apologised and removed the Like. But Chinese trolls then turned on Bright’s girlfriend, the Thai model Weeraya Sukaram, discovering that in 2017 she had made an Instagram post that implied Taiwan is a separate country. Amid the back and forth between activists on either side of the argument, the Chinese embassy in Bangkok entered the fray, releasing a statement condemning any “erroneous statement inconsistent with the One China Principle” and asserting the “kinship of ‘China and Thailand as one family’”.[8]

These events might have remained an ephemeral Twitter outrage, but they were amplified by a confluence of two factors: China’s “wolf warrior” diplomats were asserting themselves online in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic; and the Thai youth movement was gathering steam in reaction to the government’s banning of the opposition Future Forward Party earlier in the year. When Chinese activists targeted Bright they drew a strong reaction from Thai activists, who were joined in solidarity by Hong Kong and Taiwanese activists.

China’s nationalist trolls found themselves outplayed by digital natives with a better sense of Twitter politics. When the Chinese activists criticised the Thai government, they were confused to find the Thai activists slyly agreeing with them. A meme war ensued, falling broadly along pro- and anti-Chinese Communist Party lines. The event generated a proliferating stream of images on the theme of Thailand, Taiwan and Hong Kong united in their penchant for milk tea drinks of different varieties.[9] The hashtags #MilkTeaAlliance and #MilkTeaisThickerThanBlood entered Thailand’s top trends list on Twitter.[10]  

The Milk Tea Alliance appears to be a spontaneous outgrowth of the international connections developed by activists in Hong Kong with those around the region. Thai and Hong Kong activists are especially well connected. The founder of the now-banned Future Forward Party, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, has said he was inspired by the Hong Kong protests. In 2019, he drew a warning from the Chinese embassy in Bangkok after a photograph emerged of him posing with Hong Kong democracy activist Joshua Wong.[11]

Although the alliance is more “memeplex” than movement, it illustrates the way internet activism can evolve rapidly in virtual space. Memes go through a process akin to accelerated natural selection, in which ideas and images mutate through crowd-sourcing, and the most influential memes rise to the top of the algorithm by garnering the most engagement. The result is a “sticky” meme, like the Milk Tea Alliance, that migrates across borders, from protest to protest.

In 2020, Twitter engagement with Milk Tea Alliance memes was driven by users from Thailand, but Taiwan and Hong Kong users also played a role. As a recent sample (see figure 1), analytics from Keyhole over the period October 14 – November 13, 2020, show the country-of-origin diversity of the #milkteaalliance hashtag. Of the top ten most influential posters using the hashtag, seven were from Thailand, two from Taiwan, and one from Hong Kong. Although Thais predominate, the non-Thai influencers in the sample were significant. One was the Taiwanese representative to the United States, Hsiao Bi-Khim. Another was the Vice President of Taiwan, William Lai Ching-te, who wrote on October 10:

Proud to see our flag fly high and be recognized all over the world. We thank the people from so many countries who today expressed congratulations and support. Especially our Indian friends. Namaste!

TaiwanNationalDay #JaiHind #MilkTeaAlliance

The third most influential non-Thai account was that of Joshua Wong, a key leader of the Hong Kong protests who helped to popularise the Milk Tea Alliance at the outset. For many months, Wong’s pinned tweet on his timeline promoted the Milk Tea Alliance.

At one point it might have been easy to dismiss the Milk Tea Alliance as a Gen-Z in-joke. But irony and humour are powerful tools in generating memetic virality. On Twitter, wit is trumped only by outrage. As a meme, Milk Tea has flowed across borders, connecting pro-democracy movements in Asia along with symbols such as the Hunger Games three-finger salute and tactics such as the use of umbrellas to fend off tear gas—both now spreading in post-coup Myanmar. The Milk Tea Alliance may become an enduring platform for multilateral activism—a kind of ASEAN for civil society. But it also runs the risk of facilitating anti-Chinese populism and being drawn into polarisation over US-China rivalry.


INDONESIA’S LABOUR PROTESTS

In early October, 2020, protesters targeted the national parliament and the Jokowi government after news spread that an omnibus law affecting worker rights had been quietly passed. Thousands of protesters took to the streets of Jakarta, storming the compound of the national parliament, while smaller groups held protests in cities across the country. Unknown assailants damaged public property, most notably the Hotel Indonesia bus station in Central Jakarta, which was burned. For weeks, a smattering of protests continued, from Bandung to Surabaya to Makassar, led by a new generation of labour activists.

Despite the media focus on what appeared to be a new class consciousness among Indonesian youth, on social media one could detect an anti-Chinese fringe to the protests. Anti-Chinese sentiment was not a major protest theme and should not be overstated. Yet China is the elephant in the room on labour issues in Indonesia given the large number of Chinese migrant workers. But the labour protests are just the most recent example of Indonesian demonstrations that reveal a background level of anti-Chinese sentiment.

Prior to this, since the 2019 presidential election, China and ethnic Chinese had both emerged as targets of conspiracy theories and disinformation that flavoured opposition protest against President Jokowi.[12] Increasingly, in online chat groups, anti-Chinese sentiment conflates the country with local Indonesian Chinese. In Indonesia, unlike in Thailand, the sentiment is more underground, more racialised, and tends to be relegated to private or semi-public chat groups.

It was against this backdrop that the omnibus law protests incorporated a strand of anti-China criticism. The criticism was that the law enabled big business to outsource work to foreigners, especially to migrant Chinese workers. The presence of migrant Chinese workers in Indonesia is a running controversy among opposition protestors in Indonesia who accuse the government of bringing in unskilled workers to take the place of Indonesian workers, and of understating the number of such workers in the country.

The scale of the Chinese migrant worker force in Indonesia and whether they are “skilled” or “unskilled” are matters highly contested by the Jokowi government.[13] Earlier in the year there had been episodes of unrest and small protests in Southeast Sulawesi over the viral video footage of Chinese mining working arriving in the city of Kendari. A report by the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict outlined how this and other scattered incidents of unrest over Chinese workers drew the attention of pro-ISIS militants, who sought to exploit the anti-Chinese sentiment.[14]

During the omnibus protests, mentions of the term “cukong” on social media—a pejorative term to refer to Chinese Indonesian bosses, serves as an index to the heightened anti-Chinese sentiment. The narrative circulating on social media was that such bosses stood to gain from the law by outsourcing work to cheaper Chinese labour. A six-month snapshot of ISEAS data on mentions of “cukong” on Indonesian social media shows a spike in mid-September, as the omnibus law was being discussed in the media, and then a peak in early October after the law had been passed and during the protests (see figure 2).

While detectible on social media, chatter about cukong hardly made it into mainstream media coverage of the protests. But one of the few senior politicians to routinely invoke anti-Chinese sentiment, Fadli Zon, appeared to pick up on the keyword. On November 11, Fadli tweeted from his official Twitter account a link to a news article and a post in which he described Indonesia as no longer a democracy but a “cukongkrasi”.[15]

If one did not know where to look and what to look out for—e.g., pejorative slang on opposition social media—it would have been easy to miss the anti-Chinese dimension of the protests. Similar to the anti-Chinese sentiment during the post-election violence, the phenomenon was marginal to the main theme of the protest (labour rights) and hard to detect offline. But one prominent offline and online example of anti-Chinese messaging during the protests came from a new opposition nationalist group, Save Indonesia Coalition (KAMI).[16] Established in August 2020 by national figures such as former Muhammadiyah chairman Din Syamsuddin and former TNI commander General Gatot Nurmantyo, the group was outspoken in supporting the protests, although KAMI members did not appear to take a leading role in them.

KAMI posts on social media revealed an event held on September 30 that featured anti-Chinese messaging. The event featured a large banner (see figure 3) referring to saving Indonesia from economic, social, cultural and legal depression as well as from the grip of “aseng, asing and communists”. “Aseng and asing” is an increasingly normalised anti-Chinese slur referring to both local ethnic and foreign Chinese. The term was popularised during the anti-Ahok mass mobilisations of 2016-2017. “Communists”, in this context, also serves as a coded reference to Chinese.

CONCLUSION

The Milk Tea Alliance is a striking example of the power of social media to generate new social movements and exploit weaknesses in institutional power. The movement has exposed the weakness of China’s cultural power in Southeast Asia. In parts of the region where the meme has not yet caught on, such as the largest country, Indonesia, there is an anti-Chinese edge to disparate protest events fuelled by the same anxieties that fuel the Milk Tea Alliance. As China’s influence in Southeast Asia grows, US-China rivalry intensifies, and internet coverage extends, we should anticipate further iterations of memes and memetic movements in Southeast Asia which channel and amplify populist discontent.[17]

In a climate in which US-China rivalry functions as a form of meta-polarisation, pushing domestic political actors to ideological extremes, there are risks for both China and for the pro-democracy activists of Southeast Asia. For China, the power gap leaves it vulnerable to populist politics and insurgent politicians who would exploit local anti-Chinese sentiment to gain political office. For activists, they risk their political legitimacy if their movements are exploited, Cold-War-style, by China’s strategic rivals. A further risk is that of legitimate criticism of China from a policy perspective degenerating into old prejudices against ethnic Chinese. Digital platforms may make it easier than ever to start a social movement. Online anonymity and unpredictable virality, however, make it harder to anticipate how a movement will evolve.[18]

ISEAS Perspective 2021/42, 12 April 2021


ENDNOTES

[1] Max Lane, “Protests Against the Omnibus Law and the Evolution of Indonesia’s Social Opposition”, ISEAS Perspective 128, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, November 9, 2020.

[2] Penchan Phoborisut, “The 2020 Student Uprising in Thailand: A Dynamic Network of Dissent”, ISEAS Perspective 129, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, November 10, 2020,

[3] Jasmine Chia, “Thai media is outsourcing much of its coronavirus coverage to Beijing and that’s just the start”, Thai Enquirer, January 31, 2020, https://www.thaienquirer.com/7301/thai-media-is-outsourcing-much-of-its-coronavirus-coverage-to-beijing-and-thats-just-the-start

[4] “The Battle for China’s Backyard,” The Economist, February 27, 2021.

[5] “What’s on the clandestine nightly flights between Myanmar and China?”, The Strategist, ASPI, February 23, 2021, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/whats-on-the-clandestine-nightly-flights-between-myanmar-and-china

[6] Laura Silver, “U.S. is seen as a top ally in many countries – but others view it as a threat”, Pew Research Center, December 5, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/12/05/u-s-is-seen-as-a-top-ally-in-many-countries-but-others-view-it-as-a-threat

[7] Pew Research Centre, “Unfavorable Views of China Reach Historic Highs in Many Countries”, October 6, 2020. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/10/06/unfavorable-views-of-china-reach-historic-highs-in-many-countries

[8]  “Family Feud: Chinese Embassy’s statement reignites the fury of social media”, Thisrupt, April 15, 2020. https://thisrupt.co/current-affairs/family-feud-chinese-embassy-social-media-fury

[9] Joan Donavan, “Transnatoinal Meme Wars: #MilkTeaAllinace”, Meme War Weekly, April 30, 2020, https://medium.com/memewarweekly/transnational-meme-wars-milkteaalliance-874db600056f

[10] For an overview, see Patpicha Tanakasempipat and Yanni Chow, “Pro-democracy Milk Tea Alliance brews in Asia”, Reuters, August 18, 2020.

[11] “Chinese embassy in Thailand condemns politicians for siding with Hong Kong pro-independence group”, CAN, October 11, 2019, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/china-embassy-thailand-thanathorn-hong-kong-protests-joshua-wong-11990658

[12] Quinton Temby, “Disinformation, Violence, and Anti-Chinese Sentiment in Indonesia’s 2019 Elections”, ISEAS Perspective 67, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, September 2, 2019.

[13] See, for example, “Menko Luhut Buka-bukaan Soal Buruh Kasar China di Indonesia”, CNN Indonesia, August 24, 2019, https://www.cnnindonesia.com/ekonomi/20190823205710-92-424221/menko-luhut-buka-bukaan-soal-buruh-kasar-china-di-indonesia

[14] Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict, “IPAC Short Briefing No.1: Covid-19 And Isis In Indonesia”, April 2, 2020, p. 3-4.

[15] Fadli Zon, Twitter.com, https://twitter.com/fadlizon/status/1326484861402509312?s=20

[16] https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/08/19/moral-movement-kami-aims-to-save-indonesia-says-cofounder-din-syamsuddin.html

[17] For a global perspective, see Martin Gurri, The Revolt of the Public (Stripe Press: San Francisco, 2018).

[18] Quinton Temby, “The Milk Tea Alliance Confronts China’s Weak Brew”, Fulcrum, March 17, 2021, https://fulcrum.sg/the-milk-tea-alliance-confonts-chinas-weak-brew

ISEAS Perspective is published electronically by: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute   30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Singapore 119614 Main Tel: (65) 6778 0955 Main Fax: (65) 6778 1735   Get Involved with ISEAS. Please click here: /supportISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute accepts no responsibility for facts presented and views expressed.   Responsibility rests exclusively with the individual author or authors. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form without permission.   © Copyright is held by the author or authors of each article.Editorial Chairman: Choi Shing Kwok  
Editorial Advisor: Tan Chin Tiong  
Managing Editor: Ooi Kee Beng  
Editors: William Choong, Malcolm Cook, Lee Poh Onn, and Ng Kah Meng  
Comments are welcome and may be sent to the author(s).

2021/41 “Vietnam’s Economy in the Wake of Covid-19” by Nguyen Chien Thang and Pham Sy An

 

Domestically, the Vietnamese government has introduced measures to alleviate the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the people and businesses. In this picture, a man crosses a road in front of cafes and eateries, closed due to Covid-19 coronavirus restrictions, in Hanoi on February 17, 2021. Photo: Manan VATSYAYANA, AFP.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Vietnam’s economic growth in 2020 declined sharply due to the Covid-19 pandemic, from a high of around 7 per cent to 2.91 per cent. This is better than many other countries where growth rates were negative.
  • The Covid-19 pandemic has affected the economy on both the supply and demand fronts. On the demand front, aggregate demand comprising consumption, investment and exports has declined, with the tourism and food and beverage sectors the worst affected.
  • On the supply front, the pandemic and social distancing measures have disrupted supply chains inputs and labour supply. According to a General Statistics Office survey, 85.7 percent of businesses were affected by Covid-19.
  • Poverty and near-poverty rates worsened across Vietnam, with migrant and ethnic minority households disproportionately affected.
  • Domestically, the government has introduced measures to alleviate the pandemic’s negative impacts on the people and businesses. Beyond the pandemic, it will have to tackle persistent challenges such as poor infrastructure, lack of quality human resources, and underperforming state-owned enterprises.
  • Externally, the Biden administration’s economic, trade and human rights policies towards Vietnam bear watching.

* Nguyen Chien Thang is Associate Professor and Director General of the Institute for European Studies at the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences; while Pham Sy An is Director of the Department of Macroeconomics and Institutions, Vietnam Institute of Economics at the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences.

IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON VIETNAM’S ECONOMY

Before the advent of Covid-19 in early 2020, Vietnam’s economic growth was generally trending upwards and remained high, averaging around 7 per cent in the last three years (2017-2019). The Covid-19 pandemic, however, has had a negative impact on the economy, which saw growth in 2020 slumping to 2.91 per cent, the lowest level in 10 years (2011-2020).

The pandemic’s impact on the Vietnamese economy can be examined on both the supply and demand fronts. On the demand front, the pandemic and the social distancing measures mandated by the Prime Minister’s Directive No.16/CT-TTg in early April 2020 caused a strong decline in domestic consumption. Major economies (such as the United States, China, EU, Japan, and South Korea) were also severely affected by the pandemic and the implementation of social distancing measures within their own borders, leading also to a decline in economic growth; this meant a decrease in import demand, including for Vietnamese goods.

According to projections by Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, the retail sales value of goods and services is set to increase by 2.6 per cent in 2020, compared to 2019. However, a decrease is expected if the price factor is excluded, with a decrease of 1.2 per cent in 2020 compared to an increase of 9.5 per cent in 2019.[1] Revenue from accommodation and catering services also decreased in the first six months of 2020, falling by 18.1 per cent compared to the same period in 2019. Tourism revenue fell by 53.2 per cent in the first six months of 2020, and was the sector most severely affected by the pandemic and the implementation of social distancing measures.

With regard to investment demand, total investment increased by 5.7 per cent in 2020 – the lowest increase in the 2011-2020 period. This comprised investments from three main sources – the state sector, which increased by 14.5 per cent; the non-state sector, which increased by 3.1 per cent; and foreign direct investment, which decreased by 1.3 per cent.[2] This is a notable fall compared to 2019, when total investment increased by 10.2 per cent compared to 2018. Thus investment demand growth came largely from the state sector, with on-year growth increasing from 2.6 per cent in 2019 to the abovementioned 14.5 per cent in 2020. This highlights the important role the state has played in limiting the decline in aggregate demand during this period of economic uncertainty.

There was also a slight decrease in export growth. In 2020, Vietnam’s total export turnover increased by 6.5 per cent compared to 2019, of which exports by the domestic sector decreased by 1.1 per cent and the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) increased by 9.7 per cent. In contrast, in 2019, total export turnover increased by 8.1 per cent compared to 2018, of which exports by the domestic sector increased 17.7 per cent and the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) increased 4.2 per cent. This fall in overall export growth in 2020 illustrates how the pandemic’s negative impact on investment and the global value chain also affected Vietnam’s exports.

In sum, the Covid-19 pandemic has reduced aggregate demand (consumption expenditure, investment, and exports) growth as well as slowed down production and economic growth. The government is thus currently in the midst of implementing measures aimed at stimulating aggregate demand and restoring economic production.

On the supply front, the pandemic and social distancing measures have disrupted inputs for supply chains and labour supply. For instance, automobile manufacturers such as Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Ford, and Hyundai have halted production in Vietnam due to the scarcity of input components as well as the social distancing measures. Operations are only likely to resume when social distancing restrictions are lifted and supply chains are reconnected.

Many enterprises, especially those that rely on foreign specialists and workers, have also been heavily affected by Covid-19 due to a shortage in labour supply. The cost of labour for businesses has further increased due to the need to provide masks, disinfectant liquid, and the implementation of safety measures to prevent the spread of the virus.

According to a 2020 survey by Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, 85.7 per cent of businesses have been affected by Covid-19. The construction and service sectors have been the most affected, with 86.1 per cent and 85.9 per cent of businesses being hit respectively. In the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector, the proportion of businesses affected by the pandemic was lower, at 78.7 per cent. However, there were specific industries such as aviation, accommodation services, catering services, travel services, education and training, textiles, leather production, leather products, electronic manufacturing, and car manufacturing which had over 90 per cent of businesses affected by the pandemic. These industries were heavily affected by disruption in global and regional supply chains as well as the implementation of social distancing measures.[3]

Classified by size, micro firms saw the biggest drop in revenue, followed by small, medium, and large firms. Given that the vast majority of businesses in Vietnam are micro and small-sized ones, the pandemic has therefore affected a vast number of businesses in the country.

However, there has also been a small proportion of firms which have found opportunities from the pandemic. These businesses operate in industries such as insurance, health care, postal and delivery services, e-commerce, and information technology, which benefit from the increase in online transactions. In particular, social distancing during the pandemic has encouraged consumers to stay home, search for goods on the internet, and place orders online. This consumer trend promotes e-commerce and logistics services.

From a social perspective, the loss of income brought about by the pandemic has raised the poverty rate and near-poverty rate in Vietnam. According to a 2020 survey conducted by the UNDP and UN Women in Viet Nam, the proportion of income-poor households in Vietnam increased dramatically from 11.3 per cent in December 2019 to 50.7 per cent in April 2020. The proportion of near-poor households increased from 3.8 per cent to 6.5 per cent across the same time period.[4] More importantly, the survey also highlighted that ethnic minority households, households with informal workers, and migrant families have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic. The survey estimates that ethnic minority households’ income in April and May 2020 dropped by 75 per cent and 64.3 per cent respectively compared to December 2019 income levels, while income loss for the Kinh-Hoa majority[5] was less at 69.7 per cent and 48 per cent respectively. Likewise, migrant households experienced income loss of 74.9 per cent and 56.8 per cent respectively, while non-migrant households’ incomes dropped 69.2 per cent and 47.5 per cent respectively.

Macroeconomic stability in 2020 was negatively affected by Covid-19 in 2020, although inflation remained low under 4 per cent. The budget deficit increased sharply (from 3.36 per cent of GDP in 2019[6] to 4.49 per cent of GDP in 2020[7]) due to an increase in government spending for pandemic-related financial support for citizens and businesses. Accordingly, debt indicators for 2020, namely public debt (as percentage of GDP), foreign debt (as percentage of GDP), government debt payments to total budget revenue, and foreign debt repayment (as percentage of total exports) all increased compared to the previous year (see Graph 2 below).

Covid-19 has affected all aspects of socio-economic development such as economic growth, trade activities, labour, employment, and income of workers. To mitigate this disruption, the Vietnamese government has implemented a series of timely and strong measures aimed firstly to limit the spread of the virus and then secondly to promote economic development. The measures have shown initial success at controlling the spread of the virus, with Vietnam having come close to completely halting local transmission.


Note: figures in 2020 are estimated by Government.
Source: Government’s report (2020) [8]

SOLUTIONS AND PROSPECTS FOR VIETNAM’S ECONOMY

Vietnam’s economy grew by 2.91 per cent in 2020, significantly below the target of 6.8 per cent set at the beginning of the year. However, this is nonetheless a very impressive result, given the current global economic slump. According to The Economist, Vietnam is among the 16th most successful emerging economies in the world, and has the potential to close the income gap with some developed countries during the Covid-19 pandemic.[9] This is due largely to Vietnam’s success in controlling the spread of the pandemic and mitigating its negative impacts. In addition, because of the pandemic, Vietnam is now more determined to transform its economy through innovation and digitalisation.

Given Vietnam’s strong economic fundamentals and in preparation for the all-important five-yearly 13th Party Congress that was held in early 2021, the Vietnamese government has paid particular attention to the twin goals of controlling the pandemic while promoting economic growth. On the economic front, the government has proposed various monetary, fiscal, and social security policies to help businesses and citizens tide over the most difficult period of the Covid-19 shock. Firstly, monetary measures include a credit policy package which aims to restructure debt and reduce interest rates for the total outstanding loans; secondly, a new loan package with a total committed limit of about VND 300,000 billion (US$13 billion) with a preferential interest rate of 1-2.5 per cent per year, much more favourable than the normal credit scheme of 4.5 per cent per year; thirdly, a fiscal package with a total value of VND 180,000 billion (US$7.8 billion) including deferral of tax and land rental payments for enterprises (extension of payment deadline to five months);[10] and fourthly, a social security package worth VND 62,000 billion (US$2.7 billion) for more than 20 million workers and disadvantaged citizens.

This provides financial support for a maximum of three months to workers who are unemployed or underemployed because of Covid-19; to employers who face difficulties in paying salary to workers; to individual business households which have ceased business operations; and to disadvantaged groups.[11] These measures are expected to remain in place for some time.

Although the impact of the abovementioned measures cannot be adequately assessed yet, the support package, especially the social security package, has already reached many disadvantaged groups such as poor households, near-poor households, and families recognised for their meritorious service to the country.[12]

On the healthcare front, the Vietnamese government has implemented strict and proactive measures to curb the spread of Covid-19 across the country and to quickly isolate cases when they occur.[13] Due to the government’s consistent implementation of these containment measures, the situation is now largely under control. If there are no further mass outbreaks and support packages and policies continue to stimulate the economy, the possibility of economic recovery is very high.

The shock from the Covid-19 pandemic is likely to pass, but the Vietnamese economy will still have to grapple with uncertainties and challenges that are expected to linger on. One key uncertainty is the new Biden administration’s policies towards the region in general, and its orientation towards Vietnam in particular. Will the US-China trade war escalate or cool with Biden at the helm, and what are the implications for Vietnam? What will the Biden administration’s trade and investment policy towards Vietnam be like? Will it follow up with additional trade sanctions after the US Treasury Department labelled Vietnam a currency manipulator in December 2020?[14] How will Vietnam respond if the Biden administration decides to take a tougher stance on human rights issues?

Challenges for Vietnam in the next few years will include problems that had persisted way before the pandemic but have yet to be resolved. These include the wanting quality of infrastructure, which ranks 77th amongst 141 economies; the lack of high-quality human resources, which ranks 93th,[15] and the slow pace of state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms. Vietnam had targeted to equitize 127 SOEs between 2017-2020, but as of June 2020, however, only some 28 per cent of this target has been achieved.[16]

In general, the Covid-19 shock has had a negative impact on most enterprises across different industries. Although the government has introduced measures to support businesses, global and regional production networks and value chain supplies are still disrupted. Support packages by the government thus can only partially relieve the pain and loss of businesses and employees. Such difficulties will accumulate in the coming years as the government attempts to restore the economy and stimulate production, while coping with the unpredictable developments that will accompany the change of power in the United States. At the same time, it also has to tackle the abovementioned chronic problems to promote sustainable economic growth.

ISEAS Perspective 2021/41, 8 April 2021


ENDNOTES

[1] General Statistics Office (2021), Báo cáo tình hình kinh tế – xã hội Qúy IV và năm 2020 (Report on socio-economic situation of 4th Quarter and year 2020), 17 February, 2021,  https://www.gso.gov.vn/du-lieu-va-so-lieu-thong-ke/2020/12/baocao-tinh-hinh-kinh-te-xa-hoi-quy-iv-va-nam-2020/.

[2] General Statistics Office (2021).

[3] General Statistics Office (2020), Tọa đàm đánh giá tác động của đại dịch Covid-19 đến doanh nghiệp Việt Nam (Seminar on Assessment of Covid-19 impact on Vietnamese enterprises), 21 July 2020, https://www.gso.gov.vn/du-lieu-va-so-lieu-thong-ke/2020/07/toa-dam-danh-gia-tac-dong-cua-dai-dich-covid-19-den-doanh-nghiep-viet-nam/.

[4] UNDP and UN Women in Viet Nam (2020), Covid-19 Socio-Economic Impact on Vulnerable Households and Enterprises in Viet Nam – A gender-sensitive assessment, p. 10.

[5] Kinh (Viet), Hoa (Chinese) are two major ethnic groups in Vietnam that tend to perform economically better than others.

[6] Anh Minh (2020), Ngân sách 2019 thâm hụt gần 8.7 tỷ USD (Budget deficit in 2019 was about US 8.7 billion), 15 May 2020, https://vnexpress.net/ngan-sach-2019-tham-hut-gan-8-7-ty-usd-4099709.html.

[7] Trinh Dung (2020), Dự ước thu, chi Ngân sách nhà nước năm 2020 đều giảm so với dự toán (Estimated revenue and expenditure of state budget for 2020 all are lower than forecast), 20 October 2020, https://nhandan.com.vn/tin-tuc-kinh-te/du-uoc-thu-chi-ngan-sach-nha-nuoc-nam-2020-deu-giam-so-voi-du-toan-621249/.

[8] Luong Bang (2020), Sức ép trả nợ công, những con số chỉ báo mới (Pressure of public debt payment and new forecasts), 20 October 2020, https://vietnamnet.vn/vn/kinh-doanh/tai-chinh/no-cong-nam-2021-chinh-phu-du-kien-vay-hon-579-nghin-ty-dong-681823.html.

[9] Thu Thu (2020), The Economist: Việt Nam lọt top 16 nền kinh tế mới nổi thành công nhất thế giới, nhiều triển vọng thu hẹp khoảng cách với các nước phát triển trong đại dịch Covid-19 (The Economist: Vietnam is in the top 16 most successful emerging economies in the world, with many prospects for narrowing the gap with developed countries during the Covid-19 pandemic), 19 August 2020, https://cafef.vn/the-economist-viet-nam-lot-top-16-nen-kinh-te-moi-noi-thanh-cong-nhat-the-gioi-nhieu-trien-vong-thu-hep-khoang-cach-voi-cac-nuoc-phat-trien-trong-dai-dich-covid-19-20200819051311544.chn.

[10] Nghị định số 41/2020/NĐ-CP của Chính phủ về Gia hạn thời hạn nộp thuế và tiền thuê đất, ban hành ngày 8/4/2020 (Decree No. 41/2020 / ND-CP of the Government on extension of deadline for tax and land rental payment, issued on 8 April 2020), https://thuvienphapluat.vn/van-ban/thue-phi-le-phi/Nghi-dinh-41-2020-ND-CP-gia-han-thoi-han-nop-thue-va-tien-thue-dat-438649.aspx.

[11] Nghị quyết số 42/NQ-CP của Chính phủ về Các biện pháp hỗ trợ người dân gặp khó khăn do đại dịch Covid-19, ban hành ngày 9/4/2020 (Resolution No. 42 / NQ-CP of the Government on measures to support people facing difficulties caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, issued on 9 April 2020), https://thuvienphapluat.vn/van-ban/Lao-dong-Tien-luong/Nghi-quyet-42-NQ-CP-2020-bien-phap-ho-tro-nguoi-dan-gap-kho-khan-do-Covid-19-439526.aspx.

[12] This refers to families who had members who fought and died or were wounded in past wars (such as the wars of resistance against the French and Americans, and the Chinese). Some of them come from families of revolutionary martyrs. So in difficult times, the government is expected to reward them by providing material support.

[13] When any Covid-19 case (so-called F0) is identified, the individual will be taken to a hospital for compulsory treatment, while all F1 (direct contact with F0) will be taken to quarantined camps for health tests, and all F2 (direct contact with F1) and F3 (direct contact with F2) are required to isolate at home for two weeks. These strict and proactive measures have been successful to curb the spread of Covid-19.

[14] Alan Rappeport, “Trump Administration Says Vietnam and Switzerland Manipulated Currency”, The New York Times, 16 December 2020, at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/us/politics/trump-vietnam-switzerland-currency-trade.html. In 2019, Trump accused Vietnam of being the single worst abuser on trade with the United States, worse than China.

[15] WEF (2019), The Global Competitiveness Report 2019, [http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2019.pdf]

[16] Le Son (2020), Vì sao cổ phần hoá doanh nghiệp chậm? (Why Equitization of SOEs is Low?), Vietnam government news, 6 August 2020, at http://baochinhphu.vn/Tai-co-cau-doanh-nghiep/Vi-sao-co-phan-hoa-doanh-nghiep-cham/403328.vgp.

ISEAS Perspective is published electronically by: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute   30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Singapore 119614 Main Tel: (65) 6778 0955 Main Fax: (65) 6778 1735   Get Involved with ISEAS. Please click here: /supportISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute accepts no responsibility for facts presented and views expressed.   Responsibility rests exclusively with the individual author or authors. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form without permission.   © Copyright is held by the author or authors of each article.Editorial Chairman: Choi Shing Kwok  
Editorial Advisor: Tan Chin Tiong  
Managing Editor: Ooi Kee Beng  
Editors: William Choong, Malcolm Cook, Lee Poh Onn, and Ng Kah Meng  
Comments are welcome and may be sent to the author(s).

2021/40 “Online Grocery Markets: Impact of Pandemic on Consumers” by Cassey Lee

 


The Covid-19 pandemic created both demand and supply shocks in online grocery markets. Demand shifted noticeably from brick-and-mortar stores to online grocery markets. Here, a grocery store worker restocks eggs in a Singapore supermarket on February 8, 2020. Photo: Martin Abuggao, AFP.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The Covid-19 pandemic created both demand and supply shocks in online grocery markets.
  • Demand shifted noticeably from brick-and-mortar stores to online grocery markets. On the supply-side, control measures disrupted production and more stringent border controls slowed down the movements of goods.
  • Intermittent episodes of stock unavailability were observed for some online grocery products and retailers. For some products, prices increased slightly but only for a short duration. Thus, the pandemic is likely to have impacted consumers’ welfare in online grocery markets through product unavailability (quantity) rather than prices.
  • There is a need for policymakers and regulators to collect and examine real-time data in online markets to ensure that these markets remain competitive and robust against unexpected disruptions.

* Cassey Lee is Senior Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. The findings reported in this essay are derived from the project on algorithmic pricing and competition funded by the Ministry of Education under the Social Science Research Thematic Grant. The author thanks Divya Balakrishnan, Chua Jin Siang and Gloria Lin for assistance in data collection. He is also grateful for useful comments and suggestions from Jayant Menon, Francis Hutchinson and Nicolas Lainez. The usual caveat applies.

INTRODUCTION

The Covid-19 pandemic has changed consumers’ shopping habits, perhaps irrevocably. Consumers have been buying more products and services from online markets. An indicator of this is the increase in the volume of e-commerce in 2020. In Singapore, online revenues from the sale of groceries in the period from mid-January 2020 to mid-May 2020 compared to the prior 3-month period increased by 45%.[1]

Some of the initial impetus for online shopping was driven by full or partial lockdowns, which severely restricted consumers’ ability to buy from brick-and-mortar or onsite retail shops. In many instances, the anticipation of this scenario caused the demand for daily necessities to surge temporarily. As a result, panic buying was widely observed in many countries worldwide. Though some semblance of normality has returned in these countries, especially after mobility restrictions were relaxed and onsite businesses were allowed to reopen, some of the gains made in online shopping are likely to persist in the future. About 91% of new digital consumers in the country will continue to use at least one digital service, post-COVID-19.[2]

For consumers, shopping online is often driven by a combination of factors, such as convenience, choices (variety) and prices. During the pandemic, fears about the shortage of goods have also been driving consumer demand. Though there were some disruptions in supply chains, the self-fulfilling prophecy of panic buying could have worsened such situations. Trends in online prices and product availability provide useful insights into how consumers’ welfare could have been affected by the pandemic.

In this regard, a number of questions comes to mind. Have consumers ended up paying higher prices for groceries bought online during the pandemic period, especially when there was panic-buying? Were there disruptions in product availability at online markets? These are some of the questions explored in this essay, in the context of Singapore.

DEMAND AND SUPPLY SHOCKS IN ONLINE GROCERY MARKETS

Since the outbreak of the pandemic, three events have brought about significant shifts in demand and supply affecting the online grocery market in Singapore.[3] The first was the announcement on the raising of the Dorscon level from yellow to orange on 7February 2020. This event brought a sudden and sharp increase in demand that manifested as a panic-buying spree for some goods in supermarkets across the island.[4]

The second event was the imposition of the Movement Control Order (MCO) in Malaysia, which was announced on 16 March 2020 and which took effect on 18 March 2020. The MCO severely restricted movements across the Singapore-Malaysia border, and triggered both supply and demand shocks. On the supply side, the MCO impacted the production of some goods in Malaysia and their export to Singapore.[5] On the demand side, the MCO also sparked panic buying that emanated from fears about shortages of food-related groceries normally imported from Malaysia.[6]

The third event was the implementation of the circuit breaker in Singapore. This was announced on 3 April 2020 and took effect starting 7 April 2020. This lead to another demand shock that resulted in long queues in local supermarkets.[7] The circuit breaker was lifted on 1 June 2020.

All these three events brought about demand and supply pressures in both brick-and-mortar and online stores. Shortages in brick and mortar stores, whether real or imagined, could have prompted consumers to buy from online retailers. In addition, fears of Covid-19 infections and circuit breaker restrictions would also have increased online purchases. From an economic perspective, these demand and supply shocks could have impacted consumers’ welfare in online markets through increases in online prices and supply shortages. The former causes consumers to pay more for what they would normally do whilst the latter leads to unfulfilled demand (consumers are denied the opportunity to purchase a good even though he/she is willing to pay for it).

HOW WERE CONSUMERS AFFECTED?

The turbulence in the online grocery markets and its impact on consumers can be examined by analysing the prices and stock status of selected goods in these markets. For this purpose, data on prices and stock availability were extracted from the websites of four established online grocery businesses in Singapore. Three of the four retailers operate both brick-and-mortar and online stores. Data collection began on 18 March 2020 and hence did not capture the effect of the Dorscon announcement (Event 1) on 7 February 2020.[8] Due to space limitation, discussions are confined to three products that are regarded as essential household grocery products, namely eggs, bathroom tissue rolls and instant noodles.

Eggs

The first case is the market for eggs. To ensure comparability across retailers, the price of the same product is tracked. In the case of eggs, the product is Chew’s Fresh Eggs With Vitamin E (10 x 60g). For this product, there appears to be some intermittent disruptions in the online availability of the product during the period from March to May 2020 (Figure 1).[9] How did the online availability of eggs differ across the online retailers? In terms of stock status or product availability, only one retailer experienced minimal disruptions in stock availability (Retailer 3 in Figure 1). The rest experienced intermittent bursts of stock unavailability.

In terms of prices, three of the four online retailers temporarily raised the price of their products from S$2.65 to S$2.75 (or 3.8%) during this period.[10] The duration of the price increase differed amongst these retailers – 17 days (Retailer 1), 15 days (Retailer 2), and 13 days (Retailer 3). The timing of the price increase also varied – on 7 April 2020 (Retailer 1), 2 April 2020 (Retailer 2) and 4 April 2020 (Retailer 3). These price increases took place around the time the circuit breaker was announced, which was on 3 April 2020. The variations in the timing of the price increases suggest that the retailers might not have been using computer programmes to track their competitors’ prices and adjust their own prices in real-time automatically.[11] However, without further evidence, the use of other forms of computer programmes for dynamic pricing cannot be discounted.

Though the sources of fluctuations in stock availability and price increase are unknown, the welfare of consumers has been affected by the price increase as well as the unavailability of product.[12] Consumers have had to pay higher prices than they would normally have had to. Worse, even if they have been willing to pay higher prices, they would have been unable to do so.


Bathroom Tissue Rolls

Another product that was heavily demanded during panic-buying episodes was bathroom tissue rolls. In Singapore, the extent of panic buying for this product in early February 2020 prompted retailers such as NTUC Fairprice to impose a limit on the purchase of paper products such as bathroom tissue rolls, facial tissue papers and kitchen paper towels.[13] This could have shifted some demand for this product from brick-and-mortar stores to online stores.

From the data collected, there appears to have been some intermittent disruptions in online stock availability in March 2020 up to mid-April 2020 (Figure 2).[14] Compared to the case of eggs, these disruptions appeared to have been less frequent in the market for bathroom tissue rolls. Unlike the case of eggs, the prices of bathroom tissue rolls were relatively stable despite fluctuations in online availability of this product. The price change observed for one of the retailer (1) was an upward increase to match the prices of other retailers.

Instant Noodles

The demand for instant noodles rose significantly in Asian countries during the pandemic as consumers stocked up and consumed more convenient food items. Revenues for major producers of instant noodles increased by double-digit in the first half of 2020.[15] Instant noodles were also one of the items affected by episodes of panic buying.

The stock availability of instant noodles varied across the four online retailers (Figure 3).[16] Two online retailers (1 and 4) experienced intermittent disruptions in March and April 2020. However, these disruptions ended by late April 2020. Unlike stock availability, prices of instant noodles did not change at all during the period surveyed. Thus, product availability rather than prices were likely to have been the key factor impacting consumers.

Other Products

In the sample of other products surveyed, which included vegetables and poultry, prices remained relatively stable despite fluctuations in online stock availability. Though the data collected in this study are far from comprehensive, there is some evidence of market disruptions, especially in the months of March and April 2020. Since prices fluctuated less than the online availability of products, consumer welfare was likely to have been temporarily affected by the inability to purchase products online rather than by price increase.

CONCLUSION

The Covid-19 pandemic brought about demand and supply shocks in the grocery markets. On the demand side, consumers shifted some of their purchases from onsite to online markets. This, together with uncertainties brought about by mobility restrictions, created unanticipated surges in demand for goods online. On the supply side, mobility restrictions affected production while stricter cross-border controls slowed down the movement of goods.

The impact of the pandemic on consumers’ welfare was studied by observing trends in the stock availability and prices of products sold in the online markets. Based on data collected from online retailers in Singapore, there is some evidence that there had been intermittent episodes of stock unavailability. The online prices of some products rose temporarily but not in a sustained manner. Thus, product unavailability is likely to have had a greater impact than prices on consumers in Singapore.

As e-commerce becomes increasingly important in the future, policymakers and regulators need to collect data and monitor online markets to ensure that these markets remain both competitive and robust to unexpected disruptions.

ISEAS Perspective 2021/40, 7 April 2021.


ENDNOTES

[1] The comparison is between sales from mid-January 2020 to mid-May 2020 with sales in the period from September to Mid-November 2019 and two weeks of January 2020. See Accenture’s report on “COVID-19: Impact on Singapore’s Digital Consumer” Accessed 19/8/2020, available at: https://www.accenture.com/sg-en/insights/artificial-intelligence/coronavirus-impact-singapore-digital-consumer

[2] Google, Temasek and Bain & Co. (2020), e-Conomy SEA 2020 Report, Accessed 2/3/2021, available at: https://economysea.withgoogle.com

[3] For a summary of key events related to the pandemic, see Appendix Table 1.

[4] Source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/coronavirus-covid-19-panic-buying-singapore-dorscon-orange-12439480 , accessed 22/12/2020.

[5] Sources: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/malaysia-covid-19-vegetables-supply-movement-control-order-12579348 , accessed 2/3/2021 and https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid19-most-fresh-food-imports-malaysia-arrive-chan-chun-sing-12552124 , accessed 2/3/21.

[6] Source: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ntuc-fairprice-places-purchase-limits-on-essential-items-to-prevent-stockpiling , accessed 22/12/2020.

[7] Source: https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/long-queues-supermarkets-after-announcement-circuit-breakers-contain-covid-19 , accessed 22/12/2020.

[8] One limitation of the data is the low frequency of data points. The price and stock status is updated randomly only once a day. A more accurate approach would require high frequence data e.g.hourly data.

[9] The disruptions in online availability could be due to higher demand, lower supply or a combination of both. It is not possible to determine which of these are the drivers of these disruptions.

[10] Jayant Menon has suggested that the prices of businesses with both brick-and-mortar and online stores may change less frequently compared to those with online online stores. There is no evidence of this phenomenon in the data.

[11] The use of computers for dynamic pricing lowers the cost of changing prices. Note that the technology for dynamic pricing has been around since the 1970s in the airline industry. This practice accelerated with the advent of the World Wide Web in the 1990s.

[12] Economists measure consumer welfare in terms of the difference between the price paid for a product and the willingness to pay for the product.

[13] Source: https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/ntuc-fairprice-limits-purchase-toilet-paper-noodles-hoarding-wuhan-coronavirus-orange, Accessed 2/3/2021.

[14] The prices and stock status refer to those of a specific product, namely, the PurSoft Bathroom Tissue Roll (unscented, 4ply, 10 per pack).

[15] Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-trends/Asian-instant-noodle-makers-see-boost-from-pandemic-driven-demand, Accessed 8/3/2021.

[16] The specific product covered is the Nissin Instant Noodle Chicken 5 x 82g.

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