Commentaries

“Philippine Critical Infrastructure and China” by Malcolm Cook

 

2019/102, 2 December 2019

On 20 November, National Transmission Corporation President Melvin Matibag testified in the Philippine Senate that the State Grid Corporation of China may be able to turn the power off in the Philippines. In 2009, the administration of President Macapagal-Arroyo privatized the national grid monopoly and granted it to the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP). The State Grid Corporation of China owns 40% of the NGCP and is the single largest owner.*

 

“US-Vietnam Dynamics: US Defence Secretary Mark Esper’s Vietnam Visit” by Ha Hoang Hop and Lye Liang Fook

 

2019/101, 27 November 2019

US Defence Secretary Mark Esper visited Vietnam on his last stop to Asia in November 2019 that saw him also travelling to South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines. From the US perspective, the Vietnam visit is important on at least two levels. First, the visit underscores the United States commitment to strengthen its relations with Vietnam in general and defense ties with Vietnam in particular. Secretary Esper emphasized the long-standing relationship between the two countries in his first official visit to Vietnam. He described America’s defense ties with Vietnam as strong and as one of the strongest pillars in US – Vietnam multifaceted relationship. He further committed the United States to help Vietnam enhance its military capabilities and increase cooperation in areas of common interest including maritime security and maritime domain awareness, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, and peacekeeping operations. The two countries were also appreciative of each other’s efforts in locating the remains of their servicemen still missing in action since the Vietnam War.

 

“Thailand’s New Security Plan Highlights Threats to the Throne” by Supalak Ganjanakhundee

 

2019/100, 27 November 2019

Thailand announced last week a new plan and policy guideline for national security. The guideline foresees global geo-political changes presenting insignificant threats to the country in the years ahead. But it regards domestic issues, notably declining faith in the monarchy and political divisions, as greater concerns.

 

“The South China Sea: More Dangerous and Unstable” by Daljit Singh

 

2019/99, 26 November 2019

Contrary to the views of some in Southeast Asia that the South China Sea (SCS) is already ‘’lost” to China, the US regards it very much as a contested zone between the US and China. This contest is heating up as the US steps up pressure on China.

 

“Myanmar at the ICJ: Intent and Implications” by Moe Thuzar

 

2019/98, 22 November 2019

On 20 November 2019, Myanmar’s social media sphere was set a-twitter with the announcement on Facebook by the Office of the State Counsellor that Aung San Suu Kyi – in her capacity as Foreign Minister – would head a team to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) at The Hague. The mission: to defend the case filed against Myanmar for violation of the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (or the Genocide Convention). Myanmar, as Burma, had ratified the Genocide Convention in 1956.

 

“Tough Challenges Facing the Future Forward Party after Thanathorn’s Setback in Court” by Termsak Chalermpalanupap

 

2019/97, 21 November 2019

On 20 November, Thailand’s Constitutional Court ruled that Future Forward party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit must give up his seat in parliament position for having failed to dispose of his shares in a publishing firm before standing for election last March. This decision will have far-reaching political implications, well beyond Thanathorn losing his seat in the House of Representatives.

 

“Papal Visits and the State of Interreligious Relations in Thailand” by Katewadee Kulabkaew

 

2019/96, 20 November 2019

Pope Francis, the supreme head of the Roman Catholic Church, is visiting Thailand this week. His is the second papal visit in 35 years to this predominantly Buddhist country, where Catholics account for only 0.5 per cent of the population.

 

“Southeast Asian Engagement with the Trump Administration” by Malcolm Cook

 

2019/95, 19 November 2019

President Trump’s absences from the East Asia Summit in Singapore last year and in Bangkok two weeks ago have been criticized as a sign of American disengagement from Southeast Asia and ASEAN. Similar criticisms were made of President Obama’s absence from the East Asia Summit in 2013. Secretary of State Kerry led the US delegation that year. Likewise for Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s absences from the ASEAN Regional Forum in 2005 and 2007. Things were made much worse this year by President Trump’s incorrect decision to not come to Bangkok nor send Vice President Mike Pence, as in 2018, or Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

 

“Beyond Race: Historical Voting Patterns Indicate that Urban/Rural Differences Shape Political Preferences in the Upcoming Tanjung Piai By-election” by Kevin Zhang

 

2019/94, 14 November 2019

Numerous commentators have highlighted that racial identity is a crucial indicator of political preferences in the upcoming Tanjung Piai by-election. Tanjung Piai is a racially mixed constituency with 57% Malays, 42% Chinese and 1% Indian voters. Despite being classified as a rural constituency, the Tanjung Piai parliamentary seat includes the towns of Pontian and Pekan Nanas. Hence a sizeable share of the Tanjung Piai electorate resides in “urban” areas. Polling district data since 2008 indicates that, in addition to ethnicity, whether the particular voter resides in rural or urban areas also shapes his or her voting preferences.

 

“What India’s Withdrawal from RCEP Means for ASEAN, India and the Indo-Pacific Concept” by Tang Siew Mun

 

2019/93, 6 November 2019
The 35th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits in Nonthaburi, Thailand, took a surprising turn when Prime Minister Narendra Modi pulled India out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations on 4 November 2019.  In his statement announcing the withdrawal, Prime Minister Modi explained that the “present form of the RCEP agreement does not fully reflect the basic spirit and the agreed guiding principles of RCEP as it also does not address satisfactorily India’s outstanding issues and concerns.”