Commentaries

“Vietnam’s Infrastructure Development Dilemma: The China Factor” by Le Hong Hiep

 

2019/82, 8 October 2019

On 24 September 2019, Vietnam’s Ministry of Transport announced that it had cancelled an earlier international tender invitation for eight sections of the North – South Expressway project, which will be built under the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) model. More importantly, the Ministry decided to rule out foreign investors and would instead invite fresh tenders with lowered criteria for the project from local investors next year.

 

“Uniquely Unimportant: Vietnam’s Trade with Southeast Asia” by Malcolm Cook

 

2019/81, 4 October 2019

Vietnam’s rise as a trading economy and important node in regional production chains over the last decade has greatly added to Southeast Asia’s economic dynamism and attractiveness to foreign capital. It has deepened and broadened Vietnam’s economic development and contributed to the ASEAN Community’s priority of reducing the development gap between its newer poorer mainland Southeast Asian member-states (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) and the wealthier maritime Southeast Asian member-states and Thailand.

 

“Takeaways from the Inaugural ASEAN-US Maritime Exercise (AUMX)” by Tang Siew Mun and Glenn Ong

 

2019/80, 1 October 2019

In the first two years of the Trump administration, the US Department of Defense has been the torchbearer for maintaining America’s presence and profile in Southeast Asia, compensating for the less visible aspects of US diplomacy. One of the manifestations of the US military – in particular the Indo-Pacific Command – becoming the mainstay of US diplomacy in the region is the ASEAN-US Maritime Exercise (AUMX), which was held in “Southeast Asian waters” from 2 to 6 September 2019.

 

“Students Protest Against the Weakening of Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK)” by Max Lane

 

 

2019/79, 24 September 2019

On 23 September, large student demonstrations took place in cities and towns in Indonesia. In some cities, including Jakarta, more demonstrations were planned for 24 September. In most cases, the demonstrations were orderly, with clashes resulting in injuries only in Bandung. (In Papua on the same day, there were demonstrations on the racism issue where 20 people died.) The biggest of the demonstrations appear to have been in Yogyakarta, where an estimated 15,000 students marched to a location where a student protester was shot during anti-Suharto demonstrations in 1998.

 

“The Myanmar Military’s Latest Attack on Foreign Minister Daw Aung San Suu Kyi?” by Nyi Nyi Kyaw

 

2019/78, 23 September 2019

On 17 September 2019, 144 military members of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, the Union Parliament of Myanmar, submitted a bill on constitutional amendment calculated to disqualify Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from continuing to hold the post of foreign minister. More importantly, the bill aims to produce a nativist right-wing narrative and to serve as the basis for an attack on current political office-holders in the run-up to the general elections due in November 2020. It will also enable attacks to those who hold political office in Myanmar in the future.

 

“Forest Fire and Haze Problems Return: Government Needs to Reform its Approach” by Aninda Dewayanti and Siwage Dharma Negara

 

2019/77, 20 September 2019
Once more Indonesia and its neighbouring countries in Southeast Asia are suffering from haze, stemming from peatland forest fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan islands. For Indonesia, this is a problem that repeats annually. This year’s haze may have been the worst since 2015; in this instance, compounded by the extremely dry weather.

 

“More Serious Drama outside the Thai Parliament on 18 September” by Termsak Chalermpalanupap

 

2019/76, 13 September 2019

Thailand’s House of Representatives is likely to witness commotion and the release of a considerable volume of hot air on 18 September. Its members will on that date hold a general debate on Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha’s omission of a required sentence pledging to uphold and observe the Thai constitution when his cabinet took its oath of office before the king on 16 July.

 

“All Eyes on the Thai Parliamentary Debate: A Road to Nowhere” by Sihasak Phuangketkeow

 

2019/75, 12 September 2019

After just two months in office, the government of Thai Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha faces its first major political challenge. Parliament will convene next week, on Wednesday 18 September, for a general debate. The date itself has been arrived at only after much tussling between the government and the opposition.

 

“ASEAN-US Naval Manoeuvers all About Geopolitical Manoeuvring” by Ian Storey

 

2019/74, 11 September 2019

The ASEAN-US Maritime Exercise (AUMX) from the 2nd to the 6th September was designed to hone the seaborne interdiction skills of participating navies. It also presented an opportunity for the US, China and Southeast Asia to advance their geopolitical agendas.

 

“Southeast Asia’s Growing US Market” by Malcolm Cook

 

2019/73, 4 September 2019

The reality of Southeast Asia’s trade relations with the US is much better than the dour conventional wisdom and Trump-inspired headlines portray.
The prevailing conventional wisdom, often presented as truth, is that the US, the world’s largest market, is a declining trade partner for most Southeast Asian states and that this trend will accelerate. President Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership mega-regional trade deal and affinity for tariffs have made this claim more persuasive.