In this webinar, Dr Dipinder Singh Randhawa, Dr Steve K L Chan, and Dr Kevin S Y Tan examines how demographic issues related to ageing, inequality, migration, diversity, employment and technology adoption have affected the sustainability and development of various countries in Southeast Asia.
REGIONAL SOCIAL AND CULTURAL STUDIES PROGRAMME
Managing Demographic Change in Southeast Asia: Challenges and Issues Amidst the ‘New Normal’
Thursday, 19 November 2020 – This was the second webinar of a four-part series on “Managing Demographic Change in Southeast Asia: Challenges and Issues Amidst the ‘New Normal”. It discussed the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on demographic changes in various Asian and Southeast Asian countries. Topics touched upon included the changes in labour flows as a result of tightened border controls, the future of younger generations in light of exacerbated inequality driven by COVID-19, and the social and psychological impact of lockdowns on various populations.
Moderated by Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the Regional Social and Cultural Studies Programme at ISEAS, Dr Benjamin Loh, the webinar showcased the insights of Dr Dipinder Singh Randhawa (S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies), Dr Steve K L Chan (Keimyung University), and Dr Kevin S Y Tan (ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute).
The webinar started off with Dr Dipinder Singh Randhawa’s presentation exploring the question: “Are children’s lives likely to be better than their parents?”: Intergenerational Mobility in Southeast Asia.” Using the two metrics of absolute upward intergenerational mobility and relative intergenerational mobility, Dr Dipinder used data from the World Bank to conclude that even in pre-COVID-19 times, upward mobility was declining in the developing world, with decreasing relative intergenerational mobility. He shared how this trend was slated to worsen with the onslaught of the pandemic, as children from poor and digitally deprived households faced greater challenges in adapting to online education, thereby increasing their learning deficit compared to their schooling counterparts. Worse still, these poor households were more likely to have parents working in the service industry, which has been hit hardest by the dip in tourism due to the pandemic. With these worrying trends, Dr Dipinder thus opined the need for immediate intervention, especially in bridging the digital divide and education gap for young and disadvantaged students.
Dr Steve K L Chan spoke on the issue of labour migration in Southeast Asia with his presentation: “Why We Leave: Examining the Policy Issues Surrounding Thai and Vietnamese Migrant Workers and their Impact on Population Change.” Examining the outflow of unskilled labour from Thailand and Vietnam to South Korea, Dr Chan attempted to explain the reason for this constant outflow of workers. He raised several push and pull factors, including the wage difference between home and host countries for the same perceived job, and highlighted the role of previous migrants in forming a community that facilitated passage of prospective migrants to host countries. However, he observed that while Vietnam could support the outflow of labour due to its large population of young, Thailand had to compete with South Korea to retain young workers and look towards Cambodia and Myanmar for labour replacements. Looking at the current situation, Dr Chan noted that the ongoing pandemic has drawn many migrants back home as factories shut down indefinitely. He questioned the labour composition in these two countries in a post-COVID-19 situation, and highlighted the importance of these labourers in fulfilling the needs of a productive economy.
In the final presentation for the session, Dr Kevin S Y Tan explored the policy challenges to the Malaysian-Singapore connection across the causeways. Laying down the historical connections between Singapore and Malaysia (Johor Bahru in particular), Dr Tan expounded on the extensive economic, social, and cultural interaction between the two cities via the causeways in pre-COVID times. He elucidated how the pandemic-forced closure of the causeways adversely affected the social, psychological, and mental health of the “invisible” community of Malaysians in Singapore, who may have opted to stay in Singapore (and vice versa) due to job commitments, and at the expense of being separated from their families. He also explored the two agreements fostered by the two cities to allow business-related travel: the Periodic Commuting Agreement (PCA) and the Reciprocal Green Lane (RGL). Noting the general lack of administrative clarity of both RGL and PCA, Dr Tan recommended future agreements to be more transparent. He also opined for recognition of the serious social and psychological impacts of lockdowns in addition to economic concerns, and called for governments to find a “middle ground” between the various priorities when crafting policies.
During the Question and Answer segment, the moderator and audience engaged the speakers with various questions specific to the presentations. For instance, one query asked for examples of good responses by governments in Asia to alleviate the problems of inequality exacerbated by the pandemic, while another questioned which industries in Thailand were most affected by the trend of labour migration. The webinar series ended on a positive note with the speakers sharing several developments that made them optimistic about demographic change in Southeast Asia, including heightened cooperation across various communities, and the great interdependency and common identity amongst ASEAN states.
This workshop is supported by Konrad Adenauer Stiftung.